Let Us Move Out of Plato's Cave: The Greater Reality of DCIS

A Nomogram Using Imaging Features to Predict Ipsilateral Breast Tumor Recurrence After Breast-Conserving Surgery for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ

OBJECTIVE

To develop a nomogram that integrates clinical-pathologic and imaging variables to predict ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) in women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included consecutive women with DCIS who underwent BCS at two hospitals. Patients who underwent BCS between 2003 and 2016 in one hospital and between 2005 and 2013 in another were classified into development and validation cohorts, respectively. Twelve clinical-pathologic variables (age, family history, initial presentation, nuclear grade, necrosis, margin width, number of excisions, DCIS size, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, radiation therapy, and endocrine therapy) and six mammography and ultrasound variables (breast density, detection modality, mammography and ultrasound patterns, morphology and distribution of calcifications) were analyzed. A nomogram for predicting 10-year IBTR probabilities was constructed using the variables associated with IBTR identified from the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis in the development cohort. The performance of the developed nomogram was evaluated in the external validation cohort using a calibration plot and 10-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and compared with the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram.

RESULTS

The development cohort included 702 women (median age [interquartile range], 50 [44-56] years), of whom 30 (4%) women experienced IBTR. The validation cohort included 182 women (48 [43-54] years), 18 (10%) of whom developed IBTR. A nomogram was constructed using three clinical-pathologic variables (age, margin, and use of adjuvant radiation therapy) and two mammographic variables (breast density and calcification morphology). The nomogram was appropriately calibrated and demonstrated a comparable 10-year AUROC to the MSKCC nomogram (0.73 vs. 0.66, P = 0.534) in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram provided individualized risk estimates for women with DCIS treated with BCS, demonstrating a discriminative ability comparable to that of the MSKCC nomogram.

Development of a Multi-Parametric ultrasonography nomogram for prediction of invasiveness in ductal carcinoma in situ

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the independent risk variables associated with the potential invasiveness of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) on multi-parametric ultrasonography, and further construct a nomogram for risk assessment.

METHODS

Consecutive patients from January 2017 to December 2022 who were suspected of having ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) based on magnetic resonance imaging or mammography were prospectively enrolled. Histopathological findings after surgical resection served as the gold standard. Grayscale ultrasound, Doppler ultrasound, shear wave elastography (SWE), and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) examinations were preoperative performed. Binary logistic regression was used for multifactorial analysis to identify independent risk factors from multi-parametric ultrasonography. The correlation between independent risk factors and pathological prognostic markers was analyzed. The predictive efficacy of DCIS associated with invasiveness was assessed by logistic analysis, and a nomogram was established.

RESULTS

A total of 250 DCIS lesions were enrolled from 249 patients, comprising 85 pure DCIS and 165 DCIS with invasion (DCIS-IDC), of which 41 exhibited micro-invasion. The multivariate analysis identified independent risk factors for DCIS with invasion on multi-parametric ultrasonography, including image size (>2cm), Doppler ultrasound RI (≥0.72), SWE's Emax (≥66.4 kPa), hyper-enhancement, centripetal enhancement, increased surrounding vessel, and no contrast agent retention on CEUS. These factors correlated with histological grade, Ki-67, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) (P < 0.1). The multi-parametric ultrasound approach demonstrated good predictive performance (sensitivity 89.7 %, specificity 73.8 %, AUC 0.903), surpassing single US modality or combinations with SWE or CEUS modalities. Utilizing these factors, a predictive nomogram achieved a respectable performance (AUC of 0.889) for predicting DCIS with invasion. Additionally, a separate nomogram for predicting DCIS with micro-invasion, incorporating independent risk factors such as RI (≥0.72), SWE's Emax (≥65.2 kPa), and centripetal enhancement, demonstrated an AUC of 0.867.

CONCLUSION

Multi-parametric ultrasonography demonstrates good discriminatory ability in predicting both DCIS with invasion and micro-invasion through the analysis of lesion morphology, stiffness, neovascular architecture, and perfusion. The use of a nomogram based on ultrasonographic images offers an intuitive and effective method for assessing the risk of invasion in DCIS. Although the nomogram is not currently considered a clinically applicable diagnostic tool due to its AUC being below the threshold of 0.9, further research and development are anticipated to yield positive outcomes and enhance its viability for clinical utilization.

US, Mammography, and Histopathologic Evaluation to Identify Low Nuclear Grade Ductal Carcinoma in Situ

Background Low nuclear grade ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) identified at biopsy can be upgraded to intermediate to high nuclear grade DCIS at surgery. Methods that confirm low nuclear grade are needed to consider nonsurgical approaches for these patients. Purpose To develop a preoperative model to identify low nuclear grade DCIS and to evaluate factors associated with low nuclear grade DCIS at biopsy that was not upgraded to intermediate to high nuclear grade DCIS at surgery. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, 470 women (median age, 50 years; interquartile range, 44-58 years) with 477 pure DCIS lesions at surgical histopathologic evaluation were included (January 2010 to December 2015). Patients were divided into the training set (n = 330) or validation set (n = 147) to develop a preoperative model to identify low nuclear grade DCIS. Features at US (mass, nonmass) and at mammography (morphologic characteristics, distribution of microcalcification) were reviewed. The upgrade rate of low nuclear grade DCIS was calculated, and multivariable regression was used to evaluate factors for associations with low nuclear grade DCIS that was not upgraded later. Results A preoperative model that included lesions manifesting as a mass at US without microcalcification and no comedonecrosis at biopsy was used to identify low nuclear grade DCIS, with a high area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.00) in the validation set. The upgrade rate of low nuclear grade DCIS at biopsy was 38.8% (50 of 129). Ki-67 positivity (odds ratio, 0.04; 95% CI: 0.0003, 0.43; P = .005) was inversely associated with constant low nuclear grade DCIS. Conclusion The upgrade rate of low nuclear grade ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) at biopsy to intermediate to high nuclear grade DCIS at surgery occurred in more than a third of patients; low nuclear grade DCIS at final histopathologic evaluation could be identified if the mass was viewed at US without microcalcifications and had no comedonecrosis at histopathologic evaluation of biopsy. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Rahbar in this issue.

Ductal Carcinoma in Situ: State-of-the-Art Review

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a nonobligate precursor of invasive cancer, and its detection, diagnosis, and management are controversial. DCIS incidence grew with the expansion of screening mammography programs in the 1980s and 1990s, and DCIS is viewed as a major driver of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. For pathologists, the diagnosis and classification of DCIS is challenging due to undersampling and interobserver variability. Understanding the progression from normal breast tissue to DCIS and, ultimately, to invasive cancer is limited by a paucity of natural history data with multiple proposed evolutionary models of DCIS initiation and progression. Although radiologists are familiar with the classic presentation of DCIS as asymptomatic calcifications at mammography, the expanded pool of modalities, advanced imaging techniques, and image analytics have identified multiple potential biomarkers of histopathologic characteristics and prognosis. Finally, there is growing interest in the nonsurgical management of DCIS, including active surveillance, to reduce overtreatment and provide patients with more personalized management options. However, current biomarkers are not adept at enabling identification of occult invasive disease at biopsy or accurately predicting the risk of progression to invasive disease. Several active surveillance trials are ongoing and are expected to better identify women with low-risk DCIS who may avoid surgery.