Fracture Risk (FRISK) Score: Geelong Osteoporosis Study

The feasibility study of XACT imaging for characterizing osteoporosis

BACKGROUND

Osteoporosis is a progressive bone disease that is characterized by a decrease in bone mass and the deterioration in bone microarchitecture, which might be related to age and space travel. An unmet need exists for the development of novel imaging technologies to characterize osteoporosis.

PURPOSE

The purpose of our study is to investigate the feasibility of X-ray-induced acoustic computed tomography (XACT) imaging for osteoporosis detection.

METHODS

An in-house simulation workflow was developed to assess the ability of XACT for osteoporosis detection. To evaluate this simulation workflow, a three-dimensional digital bone phantom for XACT imaging was created by a series of two-dimensional micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) slices of normal and osteoporotic bones in mice. In XACT imaging, the initial acoustic pressure rise caused by the X-ray induce acoustic (XA) effect is proportional to bone density. First, region growing was deployed for image segmentation of different materials inside the bone. Then k-wave simulations were deployed to model XA wave propagation, attenuation, and detection. Finally, the time-varying pressure signals detected at each transducer location were used to reconstruct the XACT image with a time-reversal reconstruction algorithm.

RESULTS

Through the simulated XACT images, cortical porosity has been calculated, and XA signal spectra slopes have been analyzed for the detection of osteoporosis. The results have demonstrated that osteoporotic bones have lower bone mineral density and higher spectra slopes. These findings from XACT images were in good agreement with porosity calculation from micro-CT images.

CONCLUSION

This work explores the feasibility of using XACT imaging as a new imaging tool for Osteoporosis detection. Considering that acoustic signals are generated by X-ray absorption, XACT imaging can be combined with traditional X-ray imaging that holds potential for clinical management of osteoporosis and other bone diseases.

Update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX: a systematic review of potential cohorts and analysis plan

We describe the collection of cohorts together with the analysis plan for an update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX with respect to current and novel risk factors. The resource comprises 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures.

INTRODUCTION

The availability of the fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® has substantially enhanced the targeting of treatment to those at high risk of fracture with FRAX now incorporated into more than 100 clinical osteoporosis guidelines worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine whether the current algorithms can be further optimised with respect to current and novel risk factors.

METHODS

A computerised literature search was performed in PubMed from inception until May 17, 2019, to identify eligible cohorts for updating the FRAX coefficients. Additionally, we searched the abstracts of conference proceedings of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, European Calcified Tissue Society and World Congress of Osteoporosis. Prospective cohort studies with data on baseline clinical risk factors and incident fractures were eligible.

RESULTS

Of the 836 records retrieved, 53 were selected for full-text assessment after screening on title and abstract. Twelve cohorts were deemed eligible and of these, 4 novel cohorts were identified. These cohorts, together with 60 previously identified cohorts, will provide the resource for constructing an updated version of FRAX comprising 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. For each known and candidate risk factor, multivariate hazard functions for hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture and death will be tested using extended Poisson regression. Sex- and/or ethnicity-specific differences in the weights of the risk factors will be investigated. After meta-analyses of the cohort-specific beta coefficients for each risk factor, models comprising 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density, will be computed.

CONCLUSIONS

These assembled cohorts and described models will provide the framework for an updated FRAX tool enabling enhanced assessment of fracture risk (PROSPERO (CRD42021227266)).

Chronic non-communicable disease risk calculators - An overview, part I

This review identifies the different risk assessment tools that stratify the individual's risk of four of the eight leading causes of death in women: breast cancer, lung cancer, colorectal cancer and osteoporosis. It will be followed by the publication of a second paper that summarizes the risk assessment tools for the other four leading causes of death (myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes mellitus type 2 and dementia). The different tools were compared by their use of different variables and validation criteria. To corroborate the validation process, validation study papers were considered for each risk assessment tool. Four tables, one for each illness, were designed. The tables provide an outline for each risk assessment tool, which includes its inventor/company, required variables, advantages, disadvantages and validity. These tables simplify the comparison of the different tools and enable the identification of the most suitable one for each patient.

Computer-aided diagnosis systems for osteoporosis detection: a comprehensive survey

Computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) has revolutionized the field of medical diagnosis. They assist in improving the treatment potentials and intensify the survival frequency by early diagnosing the diseases in an efficient, timely, and cost-effective way. The automatic segmentation has led the radiologist to successfully segment the region of interest to improve the diagnosis of diseases from medical images which is not so efficiently possible by manual segmentation. The aim of this paper is to survey the vision-based CAD systems especially focusing on the segmentation techniques for the pathological bone disease known as osteoporosis. Osteoporosis is the state of the bones where the mineral density of bones decreases and they become porous, making the bones easily susceptible to fractures by small injury or a fall. The article covers the image acquisition techniques for acquiring the medical images for osteoporosis diagnosis. The article also discusses the advanced machine learning paradigms employed in segmentation for osteoporosis disease. Other image processing steps in osteoporosis like feature extraction and classification are also briefly described. Finally, the paper gives the future directions to improve the osteoporosis diagnosis and presents the proposed architecture. Graphical abstract.

Associations Between Bone Impact Microindentation and Clinical Risk Factors for Fracture

Impact microindentation (IMI) measures bone material strength index (BMSi) in vivo. However, clinical risk factors that affect BMSi are largely unknown. This study investigated associations between BMSi and clinical risk factors for fracture in men. BMSi was measured using the OsteoProbe in 357 men (ages 33 to 96 years) from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Risk factors included age, weight, height, body mass index (BMI), femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD), parental hip fracture, prior fracture, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), secondary osteoporosis, smoking, alcohol consumption, sedentary lifestyle, medications, diseases, and low serum vitamin D levels. BMSi was negatively associated with age (r = -0.131, P = 0.014), weight (r = -0.109, P = 0.040), and BMI (r = -0.083, P = 0.001); no correlations were detected with BMD (r = 0.000, P = 0.998) or height (r = 0.087, P = 0.10). Mean BMSi values for men with and without prior fracture were 80.2 ± 6.9 vs 82.8 ± 6.1 (P = 0.024); parental hip fracture, 80.1 ± 6.1 vs 82.8 ± 6.9 (P = 0.029); and T2DM, 80.3 ± 8.5 vs 82.9 ± 6.6 (P = 0.059). BMSi did not differ in the presence vs absence of other risk factors. In multivariable models, mean (± SD) BMSi remained associated with prior fracture and parental hip fracture after adjusting for age and BMI: prior fracture (80.5 ± 1.1 vs 82.8 ± 0.4, P = 0.044); parental fracture (79.9 ± 1.2 vs 82.9 ± 0.4, P = 0.015). No other confounders were identified. We conclude that in men, BMSi discriminates prior fracture and parental hip fracture, which are both known to increase the risk for incident fracture. These findings suggest that IMI may be useful for identifying men who have an increased risk for fracture.

Feasibility and tolerability of bone impact microindentation testing: a cross-sectional, population-based study in Australia

OBJECTIVES

The OsteoProbe measures Bone Material Strength Index (BMSi) of cortical bone in living humans using impact microindentation (IMI). Research using this minimally invasive technique is expanding yet, to-date, there have been no reports about its feasibility in the research setting. In this study, we assessed the feasibility and tolerability of using the OsteoProbe in men enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of data collected in a population-based study.

SETTING

Barwon Statistical Division, southeastern Australia, 2016-2018.

METHODS

For 252 of 345 consecutive participants (ages 33-96 years), BMSi was measured using the OsteoProbe at the mid-tibia. Immediately following measurement, each participant used a Visual Analogue Scale (0-10) to rate the level of discomfort that was anticipated and experienced, their initial reluctance towards the measurement and their willingness to repeat measurement.

RESULTS

Reasons for non-measurement in 92 men were needle phobia (n=8), discomfort after first indentation (n=5), skin infections (n=21), excessive soft tissues around the mid-tibia region (n=56), inability to provide informed consent (n=2). Among 252 men who had IMI measures, the expectation for pain during measurement was low (1.54±1.56), as was actual pain experienced (0.38±0.71). Reluctance to undergo measurement was low (0.34±0.93). All participants indicated a willingness to have the measurement performed again. Mean (±SD) BMSi was 83.0±6.4 (range 62.3-93.0).

CONCLUSION

In this study, the procedure was well accepted by participants suggesting that IMI testing with the OsteoProbe is feasible in a research setting.

Screening to Prevent Osteoporotic Fractures: Updated Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force

IMPORTANCE

Osteoporotic fractures cause significant morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To update the evidence on screening and treatment to prevent osteoporotic fractures for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, the Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and trial registries (November 1, 2009, through October 1, 2016) and surveillance of the literature (through March 23, 2018); bibliographies from articles.

STUDY SELECTION

Adults 40 years and older; screening cohorts without prevalent low-trauma fractures or treatment cohorts with increased fracture risk; studies assessing screening, bone measurement tests or clinical risk assessments, pharmacologic treatment.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Dual, independent review of titles/abstracts and full-text articles; study quality rating; random-effects meta-analysis.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident fractures and related morbidity and mortality, diagnostic and predictive accuracy, harms of screening or treatment.

RESULTS

One hundred sixty-eight fair- or good-quality articles were included. One randomized clinical trial (RCT) (n = 12 483) comparing screening with no screening reported fewer hip fractures (2.6% vs 3.5%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.72 [95% CI, 0.59-0.89]) but no other statistically significant benefits or harms. The accuracy of bone measurement tests to identify osteoporosis varied (area under the curve [AUC], 0.32-0.89). The pooled accuracy of clinical risk assessments for identifying osteoporosis ranged from AUC of 0.65 to 0.76 in women and from 0.76 to 0.80 in men; the accuracy for predicting fractures was similar. For women, bisphosphonates, parathyroid hormone, raloxifene, and denosumab were associated with a lower risk of vertebral fractures (9 trials [n = 23 690]; relative risks [RRs] from 0.32-0.64). Bisphosphonates (8 RCTs [n = 16 438]; pooled RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.76-0.92]) and denosumab (1 RCT [n = 7868]; RR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.67-0.95]) were associated with a lower risk of nonvertebral fractures. Denosumab reduced the risk of hip fracture (1 RCT [n = 7868]; RR, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.37-0.97]), but bisphosphonates did not have a statistically significant association (3 RCTs [n = 8988]; pooled RR, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.44-1.11]). Evidence was limited for men: zoledronic acid reduced the risk of radiographic vertebral fractures (1 RCT [n = 1199]; RR, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.16-0.70]); no studies demonstrated reductions in clinical or hip fractures. Bisphosphonates were not consistently associated with reported harms other than deep vein thrombosis (raloxifene vs placebo; 3 RCTs [n = 5839]; RR, 2.14 [95% CI, 0.99-4.66]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In women, screening to prevent osteoporotic fractures may reduce hip fractures, and treatment reduced the risk of vertebral and nonvertebral fractures; there was not consistent evidence of treatment harms. The accuracy of bone measurement tests or clinical risk assessments for identifying osteoporosis or predicting fractures varied from very poor to good.

Non-hip and non-vertebral fractures: the neglected fracture sites

SUMMARY

Non-hip, non-vertebral fractures (NHNVF) were compared with hip, vertebral and controls. NHNVF were younger and heavier than controls and hip/vertebral fractures in both men and women, respectively. Falls and prior fractures were less common in NHNVF than hip fractures. Glucocorticoid use was lower in NHNVF compared to vertebral fracture (VF) in men.

INTRODUCTION

Although hip fracture (HF) and vertebral fractures (VF) receive the most attention in the literature and are the targeted sites for fracture prevention, non-hip, non-vertebral fracture (NHNVF) sites account for a greater proportion of fractures than the hip or vertebrae. This study aimed to assess risk factors for NHNVF and compare them with those for HF, VF and controls.

METHODS

Incident fractures during 2005-2007 for men and 1994-1996 for women were identified using computerised keyword searches of radiological reports, and controls were selected at random from electoral rolls for participation in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Participants aged 60+ years were included in this study.

RESULTS

Compared to controls, men and women with NHNVF were younger (ORs, 0.90, 95% CI 0.86-0.94; and 0.96, 0.93-0.98, respectively) and had a lower femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) T-score (age-adjusted; difference [men] 0.383, P = 0.002; [women] 0.287, P = 0.001). Compared to HF, men and women with NHNVF were heavier (difference [men] 9.0 kg, P = 0.01; [women] 7.6 kg, P < 0.001). Heavier weight was also a risk factor for women with NHNVF compared to VF (1.03, 1.01-1.06). In men with NHNVF, falls (0.37, 0.14-0.97) and prior fractures (0.38, 0.15-0.98) were less common compared to HF; and glucocorticoid use was less common for NHNVF (0.30, 0.11-0.85) compared to VF.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the high numbers of NHNVF sustained by men and women in this study, fracture prevention strategies should focus on individuals with high risk of sustaining these types of fractures, as well as on individuals who are more likely to sustain a HF or VF.

The accuracy of osteoporotic fracture risk prediction tools: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To identify and synthesise the best available evidence on the accuracy of the currently available tools for predicting fracture risk.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane databases to 2014. Two reviewers independently selected articles, collected data from studies, and carried out a hand search of the references of the included studies. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) checklist was used, and the primary outcome was the area under the curve (AUC) and 95% CIs, obtained from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. We excluded tools if they had not been externally validated or were designed for specific disease populations. Random effects meta-analyses were performed with the selected tools.

RESULTS

Forty-five studies met inclusion criteria, corresponding to 13 different tools. Only three tools had been tested more than once in a population-based setting: FRAX (26 studies in 9 countries), GARVAN (6 studies in 3 countries) and QFracture (3 studies in the UK, 1 also including Irish participants). Twenty studies with these three tools were included in a total of 17 meta-analyses (for hip or major osteoporotic fractures; men or women; with or without bone mineral density).

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the 13 tools are feasible in clinical practice. FRAX has the largest number of externally validated and independent studies. The overall accuracy of the different tools is satisfactory (>0.70), with QFracture reaching 0.89 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.89). Significant methodological limitations were observed in many studies, suggesting caution when comparing tools based solely on the AUC.

FRAX (Aus) and falls risk: Association in men and women

PURPOSE

The WHO fracture risk prediction tool (FRAX®) utilises clinical risk factors to estimate the probability of fracture over a 10-year period. Although falls increase fracture risk, they have not been incorporated into FRAX. It is currently unclear if FRAX captures falls risk and whether addition of falls would improve fracture prediction. We aimed to investigate the association of falls risk and Australian-specific FRAX.

METHODS

Clinical risk factors were documented for 735 men and 602 women (age 40-90 yr) assessed at follow-up (2006-2010 and 2000-2003, respectively) of the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. FRAX scores with and without BMD were calculated. A falls risk score was determined at the time of BMD assessment and self-reported incident falls were documented from questionnaires returned one year later. Multivariable analyses were performed to determine: (i) cross-sectional association between FRAX scores and falls risk score (Elderly Falls Screening Test, EFST) and (ii) prospective relationship between FRAX and time to a fall.

RESULTS

There was an association between FRAX (hip with BMD) and EFST scores (β = 0.07, p < 0.001). After adjustment for sex and age, the relationship became non-significant (β = 0.00, p = 0.79). The risk of incident falls increased with increasing FRAX (hip with BMD) score (unadjusted HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02, 1.07). After adjustment for age and sex, the relationship became non-significant (1.01, 95% CI 0.97, 1.05).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a weak positive correlation between FRAX and falls risk score, that is likely explained by the inclusion of age and sex in the FRAX model. These data suggest that FRAX score may not be a robust surrogate for falls risk and that inclusion of falls in fracture risk assessment should be further explored.

Persistent hypovitaminosis D and loss of hip bone mineral density over time as additional risk factors for recurrent falls in a population-based prospective cohort of elderly persons living in the community. The São Paulo Ageing & Health (SPAH) Study

We performed concomitant evaluation of clinical, laboratory, and bone mineral density (BMD) parameters as potential risk factors for falls in a population-based prospective cohort of older adults, since previous studies have focused mostly in clinical risk factors. Loss of hip BMD and persistent hypovitaminosis D were associated with recurrent falls in community-dwelling elderly.

INTRODUCTION

Few studies have performed a concomitant evaluation of clinical data, laboratory bone parameters, and bone mineral density (BMD) to determine more accurately the contribution of each of these variables to risk of falls in elderly persons. We investigated the association between bone parameters and recurrent falls in a population-based prospective cohort of community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

A total of 705 elderly individuals (448 women, 257 men) were evaluated with clinical data, BMD, and laboratory bone tests at baseline and after a mean follow-up of 4.3 ± 0.8 years. Individuals with recurrent falls (≥2 falls in the previous year from the date of the second evaluation) were considered chronic fallers. Logistic regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for recurrent falls.

RESULTS

The frequency of chronic fallers was 16.5%. In multivariate analyses, risk factors for recurrent falls were visual impairment (odds ratio (OR) = 2.49, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.30-4.74, p = 0.006), use of psychotropic drugs (OR = 2.47, 95% CI 1.37-4.49, p = 0.003), clinical fracture (OR = 2.78, 95% CI 1.48-5.20, p = 0.001), persistently low 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) (<20 ng/mL) (OR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.10-2.64, p = 0.016), and loss of total hip BMD during the study (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.17-1.25, p = 0.035 for each 4% decrease).

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to traditional clinical risk factors for falls, loss of hip BMD and hypovitaminosis D were associated with recurrent falls in community-dwelling elderly persons. Thus, recognizing these factors is essential to preventing falls and improving the outcomes of this population.

Comparison between various fracture risk assessment tools

The suboptimal performance of bone mineral density as the sole predictor of fracture risk and treatment decision making has led to the development of risk prediction algorithms that estimate fracture probability using multiple risk factors for fracture, such as demographic and physical characteristics, personal and family history, other health conditions, and medication use. We review theoretical aspects for developing and validating risk assessment tools, and illustrate how these principles apply to the best studied fracture probability tools: the World Health Organization FRAX®, the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator, and the QResearch Database's QFractureScores. Model development should follow a systematic and rigorous methodology around variable selection, model fit evaluation, performance evaluation, and internal and external validation. Consideration must always be given to how risk prediction tools are integrated into clinical practice guidelines to support better clinical decision making and improved patient outcomes. Accurate fracture risk assessment can guide clinicians and individuals in understanding the risk of having an osteoporosis-related fracture and inform their decision making to mitigate these risks.

Importance of spinal deformity index in risk evaluation of VCF (vertebral compression fractures) in obese subjects: prospective study

INTRODUCTION

Obesity and osteoporosis share many features and recent studies have identified many similarities suggesting common pathophysiological mechanisms. Obesity is associated with a higher risk of non-traumatic fractures despite bone mineral density (BMD) being normal or even increased.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

54 obese subjects were analyzed (51 ± 16 years, 10 males, 44 females). Spinal deformity index (SDI) is a semi-quantitative method that may be a surrogate index of bone microarchitecture. SDI index was higher in patients than in controls. In 87.5 % of patients and 10 % of controls we found morphometric vertebral fractures, despite a DEXA Tscore not diagnostic of osteoporosis.

CONCLUSION

The objective of this study was to assess in obese patients levels of 25OH vitamin D, parathyroid hormone, serum and urinary calcium (Ca) and phosphorus (P), BMD, and SDI. 87.5 % of the obese subjects present nontraumatic vertebral fractures and reduced bone quality as measured by SDI.

Hip fracture risk factors and the discriminability of hip fracture risk vary by age: a case-control study

AIMS

To determine the important risk factors for hip fracture and the discriminability of hip fracture risk in different age cohorts (≤80 years, >80 years).

METHODS

Consecutive admissions of hip fracture over 24 months in those aged >60 years, and an age- and sex-matched control derived from admissions under a medical unit were prospectively assessed. The risk factors and the discriminabilty of hip fracture risk by age were investigated for each sex in univariate and multivariate models. The area under the curve (AUC) statistics from the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to estimate the ability of the independent risk factors to discriminate hip fracture risk.

RESULTS

The important risk factors in women aged ≤80 years were lower bodyweight, previous osteoporotic fracture, hip fracture in first-degree relatives and lower plasma 25OHD, and their discriminative effect was (AUC) 0.69. Previous osteoporotic fracture and lower plasma 25OHD were the important risk factors in men aged ≤80 years, with a discriminative effect of 0.83. In the >80-year age cohorts, only falls was independently associated with hip fracture in both sexes, with discriminative effects of 0.60 and 0.62 in females and males, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall discrimination of hip fracture risk appears less adequate in those aged >80 years when compared with those aged ≤80 years. Although skeletal factors have a greater risk association with hip fracture in patients aged ≤80 years, it is falls that is important in those aged >80 years. The relative importance of risk factors also appears to vary between the sexes in those aged ≤80 years.

Calcaneal ultrasound reference ranges for Australian men and women: the Geelong Osteoporosis Study

Heel ultrasound is a more portable modality for assessing fracture risk than dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and does not use ionising radiation. Fracture risk assessment requires appropriate reference data to enable comparisons. This study reports the first heel ultrasound reference ranges for the Australian population.

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to develop calcaneal (heel) ultrasound reference ranges for the Australian adult population using a population-based random sample.

METHODS

Men and women aged≥20 years were randomly selected from the Barwon Statistical Division in 2001-2006 and 1993-1997, respectively, using the electoral roll. Broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), speed of sound (SOS) and stiffness index (SI) were measured at the heel using a Lunar Achilles Ultrasonometer. Gender-specific means and standard deviations for BUA, SOS and SI were calculated for the entire sample (men 20-93 years, n=1,104; women 20-92 years, n=914) and for participants aged 20-29 years (men, n=157; women, n=151). Associations between ultrasound measures and age were examined using linear regression.

RESULTS

For men, mean±standard deviation BUA, SOS and SI were 118.7±15.8 dB/MHz, 1,577.0±43.7 m/s and 100.5±20.7, respectively; values for women were consistently lower (111.0±16.4 dB/MHz, P<0.001; 1,571.0±39.0 m/s, P=0.001; and 93.7±20.3, P<0.001, respectively). BUA was higher in young men compared with young women (124.5±14.4 vs 121.0±15.1 dB/MHz), but SOS (1,590.1±43.1 vs 1,592.5±35.0 m/s) and SI (108.0±19.9 vs 106.3±17.7) were not. The relationships between age and each ultrasound measure were linear and negative across the age range in men; associations were also negative in women but non-linear.

CONCLUSION

These data provide reference standards to facilitate the assessment of fracture risk in an Australian population using heel ultrasound.

Competing mortality and fracture risk assessment

SUMMARY

Failure to account for competing mortality gave higher estimates of 10-year fracture probability than if appropriate adjustment is made for competing mortality, particularly among subgroups with higher mortality. A modified Kaplan-Meier method is easy to implement and provides an alternative approach to existing methods for competing mortality risk adjustment.

INTRODUCTION

A unique feature of FRAX(®) is that 10-year fracture probability accounts for mortality as a competing risk. We compared the effect of competing mortality adjustment on nonparametric and parametric methods of fracture probability estimation.

METHODS

The Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) database was used to identify men and women age ≥50 years with FRAX probabilities calculated using femoral neck BMD (N = 39,063). Fractures were assessed from administrative data (N = 2,543 with a major osteoporotic fracture, N = 549 with a hip fracture during mean 5.3 years follow-up).

RESULTS

The following subgroups with higher mortality were identified: men, age >80 years, high fracture probability, and presence of diabetes. Failure to account for competing mortality in these subgroups overestimated fracture probability by 16-56 % with the standard nonparametric (Kaplan-Meier) method and 15-29 % with the standard parametric (Cox) model. When the outcome was hip fractures, failure to account for competing mortality overestimated hip fracture probability by 18-36 % and 17-35 %, respectively. A simple modified Kaplan-Meier method showed very close agreement with methods that adjusted for competing mortality (within 2 %).

CONCLUSIONS

Failure to account for competing mortality risk gives considerably higher estimates of 10-year fracture probability than if adjustment is made for this competing risk.

FRAX and the assessment of the risk of developing a fragility fracture

Osteoporosis is common and the health and financial cost of fragility fractures is considerable. The burden of cardiovascular disease has been reduced dramatically by identifying and targeting those most at risk. A similar approach is potentially possible in the context of fragility fractures. The World Health Organization created and endorsed the use of FRAX, a fracture risk assessment tool, which uses selected risk factors to calculate a quantitative, patient-specific, ten-year risk of sustaining a fragility fracture. Treatment can thus be based on this as well as on measured bone mineral density. It may also be used to determine at-risk individuals, who should undergo bone densitometry. FRAX has been incorporated into the national osteoporosis guidelines of countries in the Americas, Europe, the Far East and Australasia. The United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence also advocates its use in their guidance on the assessment of the risk of fragility fracture, and it may become an important tool to combat the health challenges posed by fragility fractures.

Social determinants of bone densitometry uptake for osteoporosis risk in patients aged 50yr and older: a systematic review

The World Health Organization identifies that osteoporosis is one of the leading health problems in the Western world. An increased risk of fragility fracture is observed in more socially disadvantaged individuals in most Western countries. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is currently the procedure of choice to diagnose osteoporosis and assess fracture risk. We systematically reviewed the literature regarding social determinants of DXA utilization for osteoporosis detection in patients aged 50yr and older using a computer-aided search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsychINFO from January 1994 to December 2010. Five cross-sectional studies, incorporating 16 separate analyses, were identified for inclusion in this review. The best evidence analysis identified limited evidence for a positive association between either income or education with DXA utilization; furthermore, the best evidence analysis found no evidence for an association between either marital status or working status and DXA utilization. Further research is required to identify whether a relationship exists and elucidate reasons for disparities in DXA utilization between different social groups, such as choice and referral processes, as a necessary precursor in identifying modifiable determinants and appropriate strategies to promote preventive screening to identify fracture risk.

Development and validation of a tool for identifying women with low bone mineral density and low-impact fractures: the São Paulo Osteoporosis Risk Index (SAPORI)

The performance of the São Paulo Osteoporosis Risk Index (SAPORI) was tested in 1,915 women from the original cohort, São Paulo Osteoporosis Study (SAPOS) (N = 4332). This new tool was able to identify women with low bone density (spine and hip) and low-impact fracture, with an area under the receiving operator curve (ROC) of 0.831, 0.724, and 0.689, respectively.

INTRODUCTION

A number of studies have demonstrated the clinical relevance of risk factors for identifying individuals at risk of fracture (Fx) and osteoporosis (OP). The SAPOS is an epidemiological study for the assessment of risk factors for Fx and low bone density in women from the community of the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a tool for identifying women at higher risk for OP and low-impact Fx.

METHODS

A total of 4,332 pre-, peri-, and postmenopausal women were analyzed through a questionnaire addressing risk factors for OP and Fx. All of them performed bone densitometry at the lumbar spine and proximal femur (DPX NT, GE-Lunar). Following the identification of the main risk factors for OP and Fx through multivariate and logistic regression, respectively, the SAPORI was designed and subsequently validated on a second cohort of 1,915 women from the metropolitan community of São Paulo. The performance of this tool was assessed through ROC analysis.

RESULTS

The main and significant risk factors associated with low bone density and low-impact Fx were low body weight, advanced age, Caucasian ethnicity, family history of hip Fx, current smoking, and chronic use of glucocorticosteroids. Hormonal replacement therapy and regular physical activity in the previous year played a protective role (p < 0.05). After the statistical adjustments, the SAPORI was able to identify women with low bone density (T-score ≤ -2 standard deviations) in the femur, with 91.4% sensitivity, 52% specificity, and an area under the ROC of 0.831 (p < 0.001). At the lumbar spine, the performance was similar (81.5% sensitivity, 50% specificity, and area under ROC of 0.724; p < 0.001). Regarding the identification of low-impact Fx, the sensitivity was 71%, the specificity was 52%, and the area under the ROC was 0.689 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The SAPORI is a simple, useful, fast, practice, and valid tool for identifying women at higher risk for low bone density and osteoporotic fractures.

Independent predictors of all osteoporosis-related fractures among healthy Saudi postmenopausal women: the CEOR Study

This study was designed to identify independent predictors of all osteoporosis-related fractures (ORFs) among healthy Saudi postmenopausal women. We prospectively followed a cohort of 707 healthy postmenopausal women (mean age, 61.3±7.2 years) for 5.2±1.3 years. Data were collected on demographic characteristics, medical history, personal and family history of fractures, lifestyle factors, daily calcium intake, vitamin D supplementation, and physical activity score. Anthropometric parameters, total fractures (30.01 per 1000 women/year), special physical performance tests, bone turnover markers, hormone levels, and bone mineral density (BMD) measurements were performed. The final model consisted of seven independent predictors of ORFs: [lowest quartile (Q(1)) vs highest quartile (Q(4))] physical activity score (Q(1) vs Q(4): ≤12.61 vs ≥15.38); relative risk estimate [RR], 2.87; (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.88-4.38); age≥60 years vs age<60 years (RR=2.43; 95% CI: 1.49-3.95); hand grip strength (Q(1) vs Q(4): ≤13.88 vs ≥17.28 kg) (RR=1.88; 95% CI: 1.15-3.05); BMD total hip (Q(1) vs Q(4): ≤0.784 vs 0.973 g/cm(2)) (RR=1.86; 95% CI: 1.26-2.75); dietary calcium intake (Q(1) vs Q(4): ≤391 vs ≥648 mg/day) (RR=1.66; 95% CI: 1.08-2.53); serum 25(OH)D (Q(1) vs Q(4): ≤17.9 vs ≥45.1 nmol/L) (RR=1.63; 95% CI: 1.06-2.51); and past year history of falls (RR=1.61; 95% CI: 1.06-2.48). Compared with having none (41.9% of women), having three or more clinical risk factors (4.8% of women) increased fracture risk by more than 4-fold, independent of BMD. Having three or more risk factors and being in the lowest tertile of T-score of [total hip/lumbar spine (L1-L4)] was associated with a 14.2-fold greater risk than having no risk factors and being in the highest T-score tertile. Several clinical risk factors were independently associated with all ORFs in healthy Saudi postmenopausal women. The combination of multiple clinical risk factors and low BMD is a very powerful indicator of fracture risk.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies for selecting and treating individuals at increased risk of osteoporosis or osteopenia: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To compare cost-effectiveness modeling analyses of strategies to prevent osteoporotic and osteopenic fractures either based on fixed thresholds using bone mineral density or based on variable thresholds including bone mineral density and clinical risk factors.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed by using the MEDLINE database and reference lists from previous reviews. On the basis of predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria, we identified relevant studies published since January 2006. Articles included for the review were assessed for their methodological quality and results.

RESULTS

The literature search resulted in 24 analyses, 14 of them using a fixed-threshold approach and 10 using a variable-threshold approach. On average, 70% of the criteria for methodological quality were fulfilled, but almost half of the analyses did not include medication adherence in the base case. The results of variable-threshold strategies were more homogeneous and showed more favorable incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with those based on a fixed threshold with bone mineral density. For analyses with fixed thresholds, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios varied from €80,000 per quality-adjusted life-year in women aged 55 years to cost saving in women aged 80 years. For analyses with variable thresholds, the range was €47,000 to cost savings.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk assessment using variable thresholds appears to be more cost-effective than selecting high-risk individuals by fixed thresholds. Although the overall quality of the studies was fairly good, future economic analyses should further improve their methods, particularly in terms of including more fracture types, incorporating medication adherence, and including or discussing unrelated costs during added life-years.

Obesity is not protective against fracture in postmenopausal women: GLOW

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the prevalence and incidence of clinical fractures in obese, postmenopausal women enrolled in the Global Longitudinal study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW).

METHODS

This was a multinational, prospective, observational, population-based study carried out by 723 physician practices at 17 sites in 10 countries. A total of 60,393 women aged ≥ 55 years were included. Data were collected using self-administered questionnaires that covered domains that included patient characteristics, fracture history, risk factors for fracture, and anti-osteoporosis medications.

RESULTS

Body mass index (BMI) and fracture history were available at baseline and at 1 and 2 years in 44,534 women, 23.4% of whom were obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2)). Fracture prevalence in obese women at baseline was 222 per 1000 and incidence at 2 years was 61.7 per 1000, similar to rates in nonobese women (227 and 66.0 per 1000, respectively). Fractures in obese women accounted for 23% and 22% of all previous and incident fractures, respectively. The risk of incident ankle and upper leg fractures was significantly higher in obese than in nonobese women, while the risk of wrist fracture was significantly lower. Obese women with fracture were more likely to have experienced early menopause and to report 2 or more falls in the past year. Self-reported asthma, emphysema, and type 1 diabetes were all significantly more common in obese than nonobese women with incident fracture. At 2 years, 27% of obese women with incident fracture were receiving bone protective therapy, compared with 41% of nonobese and 57% of underweight women.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that obesity is not protective against fracture in postmenopausal women and is associated with increased risk of ankle and upper leg fractures.

Changes in hip fracture rates in southeastern Australia spanning the period 1994-2007

Hip fracture incidence rates appear to be declining in Western populations. Utilizing comprehensive incident hip fracture data from radiology reports, we determined changes in hip fracture rates in southeastern Australia between 1994-1996 and 2006-2007 for residents aged 55 years or older. During this period, the population at risk increased by 47% for men and 40% for women. Although the absolute number of hip fractures increased by 53% in men and 4.4% in women, standardized hip fracture ratios were 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79-1.08] and 0.69 (95% CI 0.62-0.77), respectively. Marked reductions in hip fracture rates were observed for women: 32% for ages 75 to 84 years and 29% for ages 85 years or older. Data from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study were used to identify changes in body composition and lifestyle that might have influenced hip fracture risk in women during this period. Between 1993-1997 and 2004-2008, there was an increase in adiposity, bone mineral density (BMD), healthy lifestyles, and exposure to bone-active drugs; use of hormone therapy declined. Thus hip fracture incidence rates have decreased from the mid-1990 s to the mid-2000 s, the effect being greater among women. Our data also suggest that the recent increase in adiposity and consequent increase in BMD at the hip may have contributed to this decline. However, improved efficacy and increased uptake of antifracture drug treatments, other cohort effects, or other environmental influences cannot be excluded.

[Prevalence of vertebral fractures and risk factors in women over 60 years of age in Chapecó, Santa Catarina State, Brazil]

Fractures are the main problems related to bone fragility in postmenopausal women and account for the increase in the risk of new fractures, mortality, and costs. This study's objective was to verify the occurrence of vertebral fragility fracture and correlate it with demographic, behavioral, and clinical factors in a Brazilian population. The cross-sectional study was based on a random sample of elderly women living in Chapecó, Santa Catarina State, Brazil. The sample consisted of 186 white women over 60 years of age. Of these, 48.9% had asymptomatic vertebral fractures, with higher prevalence in T11-12 and L4-5. Adjusted analysis showed a gradient between age and vertebral fracture, while fracture prevalence was 2.3 times higher in women over 80 years. Fracture prevalence was 1.44 times higher in sedentary as compared to non-sedentary women. Due to the high prevalence of asymptomatic vertebral fractures, the authors suggest the use of spinal x-rays in elderly women for fracture screening and prevention.

Obesity and fractures in postmenopausal women

Low body mass index (BMI) is a recognized risk factor for fragility fracture, whereas obesity is widely believed to be protective. As part of a clinical audit of guidance from the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), we have documented the prevalence of obesity and morbid obesity in postmenopausal women younger than 75 years of age presenting to our Fracture Liaison Service (FLS). Between January 2006 and December 2007, 1005 postmenopausal women aged less than 75 years with a low-trauma fracture were seen in the FLS. Of these women, 805 (80%) underwent assessment of bone mineral density (BMD) by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and values for BMI were available in 799. The prevalence of obesity (BMI 30 to 34.9 kg/m(2)) and morbid obesity (BMI > or = 35 kg/m(2)) in this cohort was 19.3% and 8.4%, respectively. Normal BMD was reported in 59.1% of obese and 73.1% of morbidly obese women, and only 11.7% and 4.5%, respectively, had osteoporosis (p < .0001). Multiple regression analysis revealed significant negative associations between hip T-score and age (p < .0001) and significant positive associations with BMI (p < .0001) and previous fracture (p = .001). Our results demonstrate a surprisingly high prevalence of obesity in postmenopausal women presenting to the FLS with low-trauma fracture. Most of these women had normal BMD, as measured by DXA. Our findings have important public heath implications in view of the rapidly rising increase in obesity in many populations and emphasize the need for further studies to establish the pathogenesis of fractures in obese individuals and to determine appropriate preventive strategies.

Risk factors for recurrent falls among Brazilian women and men: the Brazilian Osteoporosis Study (BRAZOS)

The objective of the study was to estimate the frequency of recurrent falls and identify the main associated risk factors. The BRAZOS is the first epidemiological study performed on a representative sample of the Brazilian population. Anthropometric data, living habits, previous fractures, falls, dietary intake, physical activity and quality of life were evaluated in 2,420 individuals aged 40 and older. Recurrent falls were reported by 15.5% of men and 25.6% of women. Among women, the risk factors significantly associated to recurrent falls were age, previous fracture, sedentary lifestyle, poor quality of life, diabetes mellitus and current use of benzodiazepine. In men, the risk factors were age, poor quality of life, intake of alcoholic beverages, diabetes mellitus, previous fracture and use of benzodiazepine. A greater intake of vitamin D had a protector effect on the risk of recurrent falls. These findings demonstrated the high prevalence of recurrent falls and emphasize that a multidisciplinary approach is necessary to minimize recurrent falls and their consequences, including osteoporotic fractures.

FRAX TM: construindo uma ideia para o Brasil

Diferenças genéticas, raciais e antropométricas, bem como da composição corporal, densidade óssea, dieta, atividade física e outros hábitos de vida, contribuem para explicar as divergências na incidência e prevalência de baixa densidade óssea e fraturas em diversos países do mundo. Recentemente, foi desenvolvida uma ferramenta, denominada FRAX TM, para aglutinar os fatores clínicos de risco (genéticos e ambientais) e a densidade óssea, a fim de quantificar a probabilidade de fratura osteoporótica nos próximos dez anos. Em breve, ela será utilizada para indicação de tratamento em pacientes de risco. No entanto, atualmente, está disponível somente para uso em algumas populações que possuem banco de dados prospectivos e consistentes - o que não inclui o Brasil. Este estudo teve o objetivo de fazer uma revisão dos estudos epidemiológicos nacionais e internacionais para melhor compreender peculiaridades e diferenças de fatores clínicos de risco, densidade óssea e probabilidade de fratura entre essas populações. Os autores concluíram que se faz necessária a obtenção de mais dados epidemiológicos representativos da população brasileira para utilização da ferramenta FRAX TM. Para isso, os estudos brasileiros deverão possuir características adequadas, como o delineamento prospectivo, avaliação da qualidade de vida, mortalidade e incapacidade física após as fraturas, levando em consideração a expectativa de vida da população brasileira e a análise de custos diretos e indiretos relacionados às fraturas por osteoporose. À luz do conhecimento atual, a utilização de qualquer um dos bancos de dados das populações, disponibilizadas pelo FRAX TM, não é recomendada no Brasil.

Clinical risk factors for osteoporotic fractures in Brazilian women and men: the Brazilian Osteoporosis Study (BRAZOS)

The Brazilian Osteoporosis Study (BRAZOS) is the first epidemiological study carried out in a representative sample of Brazilian men and women aged 40 years or older. The prevalence of fragility fractures is about 15.1% in the women and 12.8% in the men. Moreover, advanced age, sedentarism, family history of hip fracture, current smoking, recurrent falls, diabetes mellitus and poor quality of life are the main clinical risk factors associated with fragility fractures.

INTRODUCTION

The Brazilian Osteoporosis Study (BRAZOS) is the first epidemiological study carried out in a representative sample of Brazilian men and women aged 40 years or older with the purpose of identifying the prevalence and the main clinical risk factors (CRF) associated with osteoporotic fracture in our population.

METHODS

A total of 2,420 individuals (women, 70%) from 150 different cities in the five geographic regions in Brazil, and all different socio-economical classes were selected to participate in the present survey. Anthropometrical data as well as life habits, fracture history, food intake, physical activity, falls and quality of life were determined by individual quantitative interviews. The representative sampling was based on Brazilian National data provided by the 2000 and 2003 census. Low trauma fracture was defined as that resulting of a fall from standing height or less in individuals 50 years or older at specific skeletal sites: forearm, femur, ribs, vertebra and humerus. Sampling error was 2.2% with 95% confidence intervals. Logistic regression analysis models were designed having the fragility fracture as the dependent variable and all other parameters as the independent variable. Significance level was set as p < 0.05.

RESULTS

The average of age, height and weight for men and women were 58.4 +/- 12.8 and 60.1 +/- 13.7 years, 1.67 +/- 0.08 and 1.56 +/- 0.07 m and 73.3 +/- 14.7 and 64.7 +/- 13.7 kg, respectively. About 15.1% of the women and 12.8% of the men reported fragility fractures. In the women, the main CRF associated with fractures were advanced age (OR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.06-2.4), family history of hip fracture (OR = 1.7; 95% CI 1.1-2.8), early menopause (OR = 1.7; 95% CI 1.02-2.9), sedentary lifestyle (OR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.02-2.7), poor quality of life (OR = 1.9; 95% CI 1.2-2.9), higher intake of phosphorus (OR = 1.9; 95% CI 1.2-2.9), diabetes mellitus (OR = 2.8; 95% CI 1.01-8.2), use of benzodiazepine drugs (OR = 2.0; 95% CI 1.1-3.6) and recurrent falls (OR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.2-5.0). In the men, the main CRF were poor quality of life (OR = 3.2; 95% CI 1.7-6.1), current smoking (OR = 3.5; 95% CI 1.28-9.77), diabetes mellitus (OR = 4.2; 95% CI 1.27-13.7) and sedentary lifestyle (OR = 6.3; 95% CI 1.1-36.1).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that CRF may contribute as an important tool to identify men and women with higher risk of osteoporotic fractures and that interventions aiming at specific risk factors (quit smoking, regular physical activity, prevention of falls) may help to manage patients to reduce their risk of fracture.

Development of prognostic nomograms for individualizing 5-year and 10-year fracture risks

We have developed clinical nomograms for predicting 5-year and 10-year fracture risks for any elderly man or woman. The nomograms used age and information concerning fracture history, fall history, and BMD T-score or body weight.

INTRODUCTION

Although many fracture risk factors have been identified, the translation of these risk factors into a prognostic model that can be used in primary care setting has not been well realized. The present study sought to develop a nomogram that incorporates non-invasive risk factors to predict 5-year and 10-year absolute fracture risks for an individual man and woman.

METHODS

The Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study was designed as a community-based prospective study, with 1358 women and 858 men aged 60+ years as at 1989. Baseline measurements included femoral neck bone mineral density (FNBMD), prior fracture, a history of falls and body weight. Between 1989 and 2004, 426 women and 149 men had sustained a low-trauma fracture (not including morphometric vertebral fractures). Two prognostic models based on the Cox's proportional hazards analysis were considered: model I included age, BMD, prior fracture and falls; and model II included age, weight, prior fracture and fall.

RESULTS

Analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) suggested that model I (AUC = 0.75 for both sexes) performed better than model II (AUC = 0.72 for women and 0.74 for men). Using the models' estimates, we constructed various nomograms for individualizing the risk of fracture for men and women. If the 5-year risk of 10% or greater is considered "high risk", then virtually all 80-year-old men with BMD T-scores < -1.0 or 80-year-old women with T-scores < -2.0 were predicted to be in the high risk group. A 60-year-old woman's risk was considered high risk only if her BMD T-scores < or = -2.5 and with a prior fracture; however, no 60-year-old men would be in the high risk regardless of their BMD and risk profile.

CONCLUSION

These data suggest that the assessment of fracture risk for an individual cannot be based on BMD alone, since there are clearly various combinations of factors that could substantially elevate an individual's risk of fracture. The nomograms presented here can be useful for individualizing the short- and intermediate-term risk of fracture and identifying high-risk individuals for intervention to reduce the burden of fracture in the general population.

Application of epidemiology to change health policy: defining age-related thresholds of bone mineral density for primary prevention of fracture

In Australia, benefits for antifracture therapies have been available for patients with osteoporosis and a prior fracture. No benefits were available to those with no prior fracture. We aimed to define, in women with no prior fracture, age-related thresholds of bone mineral density (BMD) associated with fracture risk equivalent to that of women with prior fracture and osteoporosis. A case-control study of women (> or =50 yr) was conducted, including 291 fracture cases and 823 controls. BMD was measured at the proximal femur and posterior anterior (PA) spine. A fracture risk score (FRS) for the group with no prior fracture was calculated with discriminant analysis. The thresholds for equivalent fracture risk between those with no prior fracture and those with prior fracture were assessed using logistic regression. Increasing the FRS to +0.98 in women with no prior fracture resulted in equivalent odds of sustaining a fracture to those with prior fracture and osteoporosis. The corresponding T-score thresholds at the spine were -4.6 at 50 yr, -3.9 at 60 yr, -3.1 at 70 yr, and -2.4 at 80 yr. The femoral neck T-score thresholds were lower by 0.5 standard deviation. The high-risk individuals defined by this study should be considered for primary fracture prevention therapy.

The population burden of fractures originates in women with osteopenia, not osteoporosis

INTRODUCTION

Osteoporosis is associated with increased risk for fracture. However, most postmenopausal women have bone mineral density (BMD) within the normal or osteopenic range. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of the population burden of fragility fractures arising from women at modest risk for fracture.

METHODS

We measured baseline BMD in a population-based random sample of 616 postmenopausal women aged 60-94 years and followed these individuals for a median of 5.6 years (IQR 3.9-6.5) to determine the incidence of fractures according to age, BMD and the presence of a prior fracture.

RESULTS

Based on WHO criteria, 37.6% of the women had normal total hip BMD, 48.0% had osteopenia and 14.5% had osteoporosis. The incidence of fracture during follow-up was highest in women with osteoporosis, but only 26.9% of all fractures arose from this group; 73.1% occurred in women without osteoporosis (56.5% in women with osteopenia, 16.6% in women with normal BMD). Decreasing BMD, increasing age and prior fracture contributed independently to increased fracture risk; in a multivariate model, the relative risk for fracture increased 65% for each SD decrease in BMD (RR=1.65, 95%CI 1.32-2.05), increased 3% for every year of age (RR=1.03, 95%CI 1.01-1.06) and doubled with prevalent fracture (RR=2.01, 95% CI 1.40-2.88). A prevalent fracture increased the risk for fractures such that women with osteopenia and prevalent fracture had the same, if not greater, risk as women with osteoporosis alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Reducing the population burden of fractures requires attention to women with osteopenia, as well as osteoporosis, because over half of the fragility fractures in the population arise in these individuals, and women with osteopenia plus a prevalent fracture have the same fracture risk as women with osteoporosis.