Development and External Validation of a Nomogram Predicting the Probability of Significant Gleason Sum Upgrading among Japanese Patients with Localized Prostate Cancer

Role of inflammatory factors in prediction of Gleason score and its upgrading in localized prostate cancer patients after radical prostatectomy

Purpose

To investigate the role of inflammatory factors including systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in predicting Gleason Score (GS) and Gleason Score upgrading (GSU) in localized prostate cancer (PCa) after radical prostatectomy (RP).

Methods

The data of 297 patients who underwent prostate biopsy and RP in our center from January 2014 to March 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Preoperative clinical characteristics including age, values of tPSA, total prostate volume (TPV), f/t PSA ratio, body mass index (BMI), biopsy GS and inflammatory factors including SII, NLR, lymphocyte to monocyte (LMR), neutrophil ratio (NR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte ratio (LR), mean platelet volume (MPV) and red cell distribution (RDW) as well as pathological T (pT) stage were collected and compared according to the grades of RP GS (GS ≤ 6 and GS≥7), respectively. ROC curve analysis was used to confirm the discriminative ability of inflammatory factors including SII, NLR and their combination with tPSA for predicting GS and GSU. By using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, the association between significant inflammatory markers and grades of GS were evaluated.

Results

Patients enrolled were divided into low (GS ≤ 6) and high (GS≥7) groups by the grades of GS. The median values of clinical factors were 66.08 ± 6.04 years for age, 36.62 ± 23.15 mL for TPV, 26.16 ± 33.59 ng/mL for tPSA and 0.15 ± 0.25 for f/t PSA ratio, 22.34 ± 3.14 kg/m² for BMI, 15 (5.1%) were pT1, 116 (39.1%) were pT2 and 166 (55.9%) were pT3. According to the student's t test, patients in high GS group had a greater proportion of patients with pT3 (P<0.001), and higher NLR (P=0.04), SII (P=0.037) and tPSA (P=0.015) compared with low GS group, the distribution of age, TPV, f/t PSA ratio, BMI, LMR, NR, PLR, LR, MPV and RDW did not show any significantly statistical differences. The AUC for SII, NLR and tPSA was 0.732 (P=0.007), 0.649 (P=0.045) and 0.711 (P=0.015), with threshold values of 51l.08, 2.3 and 10.31ng/mL, respectively. According to the multivariable logistic regression models, NLR ≥ 2.3 (OR, 2.463; 95% CI, 0.679-10.469, P=0.042), SII ≥ 511.08 (OR, 3.519; 95% CI 0.891-12.488; P=0.003) and tPSA ≥ 10.31 ng/mL (OR, 4.146; 95% CI, 1.12-15.35; P=0.033) were all independent risk factors associated with higher GS. The AUC for combination of SII, NLR with tPSA was 0.758 (P=0.003) and 0.756 (P=0.003), respectively. GSU was observed in a total of 48 patients with GS ≤ 6 (55.17%). Then patients were divided into 2 groups (high and low) according to the threshold value of SII, NLR, tPSA, SII+tPSA and NLR+tPSA, respectively, when the GSU rates were compared with regard to these factors, GSU rate in high level group was significantly higher than that in low level group, P=0.001, 0.044, 0.017, <0.001 and <0.001, respectively.

Conclusion

High SII, NLR and tPSA were associated with higher GS and higher GSU rate. SII was likely to be a more favorable biomarker for it had the largest AUC area compared with tPSA and NLR; the combination of SII or NLR with tPSA had greater values for predicting GS and GSU compared with NLR, SII or tPSA alone, since the AUC area of combination was much higher. SII, NLR were all useful inflammatory biomarkers for predicting GS and detecting GSU among localized PCa patients with biopsy GS ≤ 6.

Analysis of risk factors for Gleason score upgrading after radical prostatectomy in a Chinese cohort

Background

To study the risk factors of Gleason score upgrading (GSU) after radical prostatectomy (RP) in a Chinese cohort.

Methods

The data of 637 patients who underwent prostate biopsy and RP in our hospital from January 2014 to January 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The age, body mass index (BMI), prostate‐specific antigen (PSA) level, testosterone (TT) level, neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (PLR), eosinophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (ELR), aspartate aminotransferase/alanine transaminase (AST/ALT) ratio, clinical stage, the biopsy method, and pathological characteristics of specimens after biopsy and RP were collected for all patients. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the risk factors of GSU after RP. The predictive efficacy was verified with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. We performed the analysis separately in the overall cohort and in the cohort with Gleason score (GS) = 6.

Results

In the overall cohort, 177 patients (27.79%) had GSU, and in the GS = 6 cohort, 68 patients (60.18%) had GSU. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that in the overall cohort, clinical stage ≥T2c (OR = 3.201, p < 0.001), the number of positive cores ≥3 (OR = 0.435, p = 0.04), and positive rate of biopsy (OR = 0.990, p = 0.016) can affect whether GS is upgraded, and the AUC of the combination of the three indicators for predicting the occurrence of GSU was 0.627. In the GS = 6 cohort, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that clinical stage ≥T2c (OR = 4.690, p = 0.001) was a risk factor for GSU, and the AUC predicted to occur GSU is 0.675.

Conclusion

Clinical stage ≥T2c, the number of positive cores <3, and lower positive rate of biopsy are the risk factors of GSU. This study may provide some references for clinicians to judge the accuracy of biopsy pathological grading and formulate treatment strategies, but the specific effect still needs clinical practice certification.

Nomograms for predicting Gleason upgrading in a contemporary Chinese cohort receiving radical prostatectomy after extended prostate biopsy: development and internal validation

The current strategy for the histological assessment of prostate cancer (PCa) is mainly based on the Gleason score (GS). However, 30-40% of patients who undergo radical prostatectomy (RP) are misclassified at biopsy pathologically. Thus, we developed and validated nomograms for the prediction of Gleason score upgrading (GSU) in patients who underwent radical prostatectomy after extended prostate biopsy in a Chinese population. This retrospective study included a total of 411 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy at our institute after having prostate biopsies between 2011 and 2015. The final pathologic GS was upgraded in 151 (36.74%) of the cases in all patients and 92 (60.13%) cases in men with GS=6. In multivariate analyses, the primary biopsy GS, secondary biopsy GS and obesity were predictive of GSU in the patient cohort assessed. In patients with GS=6, the significant predictors of GSU included the body mass index (BMI), prostate-specific antigen density(PSAD) and percentage of positive cores. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction models was 0.753 for the entire patient population and 0.727 for the patients with GS=6. Both nomograms were well calibrated, and decision curve analysis demonstrated a high net benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities. This study may be relevant for improved risk assessment and clinical decision-making in PCa patients.

Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy in Chinese population: Updated nomograms

INTRODUCTION

To assess the risk factors of Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy (RP) and update the nomogram for the prediction of Gleason sum upgrading.

METHODS

The study cohort consisted of 237 Chinese prostate adenocarcinoma patients who underwent 10-core prostate biopsy and subsequently received RP in Huashan Hospital from February 2011 to May 2015. The main outcome of our study was Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and RP pathology. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to explore the potential predictors, and ultimately to build the nomograms. The prediction model was further evaluated for its ability to predict significant upgrading in patients with biopsy Gleason sum<8.

RESULTS

In the main cohort of all the patients, Gleason sum upgrading was observed in 62 (26.16%) patients. The pre-operative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, biopsy Gleason sum, and digital rectal examination were used in building the nomogram, which was validated internally with a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.787. In the sub-cohort of 115 patients with standardized biopsy details, Gleason sum upgrading was observed in 31 (26.96%) patients. The pre-operative PSA level, biopsy Gleason sum, and number of positive cores were used in the nomogram, which was also validated internally with a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.833. These two nomograms both demonstrated satisfactory statistical performance for predicting significant upgrading.

CONCLUSIONS

Updated nomograms to predict Gleason sum upgrading in Chinese population between biopsy and RP were developed, demonstrating good statistical performance upon internal validation.

External validation and comparison of two nomograms predicting the probability of Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy pathology in two patient populations: a retrospective cohort study

The aim of this study is to validate and compare the predictive accuracy of two nomograms predicting the probability of Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy pathology among representative patients with prostate cancer. We previously developed a nomogram, as did Chun et al. In this validation study, patients originated from two centers: Toho University Sakura Medical Center (n = 214) and Chibaken Saiseikai Narashino Hospital (n = 216). We assessed predictive accuracy using area under the curve values and constructed calibration plots to grasp the tendency for each institution. Both nomograms showed a high predictive accuracy in each institution, although the constructed calibration plots of the two nomograms underestimated the actual probability in Toho University Sakura Medical Center. Clinicians need to use calibration plots for each institution to correctly understand the tendency of each nomogram for their patients, even if each nomogram has a good predictive accuracy.

Application of a new technique, spiral tissue microarrays constructed using needle biopsy specimens, to prostate cancer research

Tissue microarrays were constructed using prostate needle biopsy specimens obtained from 58 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy for localized or locally advanced prostate cancer (PC). We used the spiral array (SA) technique, a novel approach for tissue array construction in a spiral form, which has advantages over small needle biopsy specimens. Roll-shaped tissue pieces produced by slicing a prostate biopsy tissue block and trimming the cancer segment were used to obtain a tissue array block. Cancer segments measuring >3 mm were incorporated into the tissue arrays. Cancer fragments (n=253) were obtained from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded needle biopsy specimens. The median number of cancer fragments per patient was four (1-8, min-max). On SA, the median number of confirmed cancer fragments per patient was four (1-7) and 224 cancer fragments (88.5%) were confirmed histologically. Each core of reeled tissue contained at least one cancer fragment. The expressions of multiple prognostic molecular markers for PC (Ki-67, p53 and bcl-2) were immunohistochemically measured using the SA. The Ki-67 and bcl-2 expressions were significantly associated with the Gleason score (GS). A univariate analysis identified Ki-67, bcl-2 and GS as significant predictors of cancer-specific survival, p53 and bcl-2 as significant predictors of overall survival and Ki-67, adjuvant androgen deprivation and GS as significant predictors of biochemical progression. In a multivariate analysis, p53 was independently associated with overall survival, while adjuvant androgen deprivation and GS were associated with biochemical progression. These results indicate that SA has potential as a new tool for translational research on PC.