Proactive supply chain performance management with predictive analytics

Enabling Blockchain Based SCM Systems with a Real Time Event Monitoring Function for Preemptive Risk Management

The risk of supply chain disruption is usually related to daily disturbances in supply chain operations (e.g., demand fluctuations) and some emergency risks, such as earthquakes and epidemic outbreaks. During a crisis, companies need agility to quickly find new suppliers and open auxiliary sales channels to meet customer needs and remain competitive. However, identifying “event” is one of the most difficult challenges of current decision support systems. If the system encounters an emergency, it is usually unable to promptly notify users of the warning to avoid risks. A sensible solution is to incorporate the real-time event-monitoring system into SCM (i.e., supply chain management) in order to share emergency information in the early stage for preemptive management in the supply chain. On the other hand, in order to process confidential supply chain data with other members, the SCM infrastructure requires secure data sharing. The blockchain-based SCM system can improve the transparency of traceability to ensure that the supply chain system provides high-quality products and protects data privacy and security. The view is taken; therefore, in this work, we combined a method of real-time event detection using collected Twitter data and blockchain technology for event monitoring to improve the visibility of the supply chain system and take preemptive measures for risk avoidance. The experiments show some interesting results and potentials for future work in the field of the agile supply chain.

Development of Deployable Predictive Models for Minimal Clinically Important Difference Achievement Across the Commonly Used Health-related Quality of Life Instruments in Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of prospectively-collected, multicenter adult spinal deformity (ASD) databases.

OBJECTIVE

To predict the likelihood of reaching minimum clinically important differences in patient-reported outcomes after ASD surgery.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

ASD surgeries are costly procedures that do not always provide the desired benefit. In some series only 50% of patients achieve minimum clinically important differences in patient-reported outcomes (PROs). Predictive modeling may be useful in shared-decision making and surgical planning processes. The goal of this study was to model the probability of achieving minimum clinically important differences change in PROs at 1 and 2 years after surgery.

METHODS

Two prospective observational ASD cohorts were queried. Patients with Scoliosis Research Society-22, Oswestry Disability Index , and Short Form-36 data at preoperative baseline and at 1 and 2 years after surgery were included. Seventy-five variables were used in the training of the models including demographics, baseline PROs, and modifiable surgical parameters. Eight predictive algorithms were trained at four-time horizons: preoperative or postoperative baseline to 1 year and preoperative or postoperative baseline to 2 years. External validation was accomplished via an 80%/20% random split. Five-fold cross validation within the training sample was performed. Precision was measured as the mean average error (MAE) and R values.

RESULTS

Five hundred seventy patients were included in the analysis. Models with the lowest MAE were selected; R values ranged from 20% to 45% and MAE ranged from 8% to 15% depending upon the predicted outcome. Patients with worse preoperative baseline PROs achieved the greatest mean improvements. Surgeon and site were not important components of the models, explaining little variance in the predicted 1- and 2-year PROs.

CONCLUSION

We present an accurate and consistent way of predicting the probability for achieving clinically relevant improvement after ASD surgery in the largest-to-date prospective operative multicenter cohort with 2-year follow-up. This study has significant clinical implications for shared decision making, surgical planning, and postoperative counseling.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

4.