Cumulative delivery rate after providing full reimbursement in vitro fertilization programme: a 6-years survey

Predicting cumulative live birth for couples beginning their second complete cycle of in vitro fertilization treatment

STUDY QUESTION

Can we develop an IVF prediction model to estimate individualized chances of a live birth over multiple complete cycles of IVF in couples embarking on their second complete cycle of treatment?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Yes, our prediction model can estimate individualized chances of cumulative live birth over three additional complete cycles of IVF.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

After the completion of a first complete cycle of IVF, couples who are unsuccessful may choose to undergo further treatment to have their first child, while those who have had a live birth may decide to have more children. Existing prediction models can estimate the overall chances of success in couples before commencing IVF but are unable to revise these chances on the basis of the couple's response to a first treatment cycle in terms of the number of eggs retrieved and pregnancy outcome. This makes it difficult for couples to plan and prepare emotionally and financially for the next step in their treatment.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

For model development, a population-based cohort was used of 49 314 women who started their second cycle of IVF including ICSI in the UK from 1999 to 2008 using their own oocytes and their partners' sperm. External validation was performed on data from 39 442 women who underwent their second cycle from 2010 to 2016.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Data about all UK IVF treatments were obtained from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) database. Using a discrete time logistic regression model, we predicted the cumulative probability of live birth from the second up to and including the fourth complete cycles of IVF. Inverse probability weighting was used to account for treatment discontinuation. Discrimination was assessed using c-statistic and calibration was assessed using calibration-in-the-large and calibration slope.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Following exclusions, 49 314 women with 73 053 complete cycles were included. 12 408 (25.2%) had a live birth resulting from their second complete cycle. Cumulatively, 17 394 (35.3%) had a live birth over complete cycles two to four. The model showed moderate discriminative ability (c-statistic: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.64 to 0.65) and evidence of overprediction (calibration-in-the-large = -0.08) and overfitting (calibration slope 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81 to 0.88) in the validation cohort. However, after recalibration the fit was much improved. The recalibrated model identified the following key predictors of live birth: female age (38 versus 32 years-adjusted odds ratio: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.57 to 0.62), number of eggs retrieved in the first complete cycle (12 versus 4 eggs; 1.34, 1.30 to 1.37) and outcome of the first complete cycle (live birth versus no pregnancy; 1.78, 1.66 to 1.91; live birth versus pregnancy loss; 1.29, 1.23 to 1.36). As an example, a 32-year-old with 2 years of non-tubal infertility who had 12 eggs retrieved from her first stimulation and had a live birth during her first complete cycle has a 46% chance of having a further live birth from the second complete cycle of IVF and an 81% chance over a further three cycles.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The developed model was updated using validation data that was 6 to 12 years old. IVF practice continues to evolve over time, which may affect the accuracy of predictions from the model. We were unable to adjust for some potentially important predictors, e.g. BMI, smoking and alcohol intake in women, as well as measures of ovarian reserve such as antral follicle count. These were not available in the linked HFEA dataset.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

By appropriately adjusting for couples who discontinue treatment, our novel prediction model will provide more realistic chances of live birth in couples starting a second complete cycle of IVF. Clinicians can use these predictions to inform discussion with couples who wish to plan ahead. This prediction tool will enable couples to prepare emotionally, financially and logistically for IVF treatment.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This study was supported by an Elphinstone scholarship scheme at the University of Aberdeen and Aberdeen Fertility Centre, University of Aberdeen. The authors have no conflict of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Herbal fertility treatments used in North America from colonial times to 1900, and their potential for improving the success rate of assisted reproductive technology

This paper serves to fill a gap in the literature regarding evidence for the use of botanical remedies in the promotion of fertility. It examines the botanical remedies that were used in North America (1492-1900) for all stages of reproduction from preconception to birth, and discusses their potential for future use with present-day infertility treatments. Each medicinal plant discussed in this paper is assessed using an ethnomedicinal methodology that entails examining the published ethnobotanical, phytochemical and pharmacological data. A few clinical trials have shown that there is potential for medicinal plants to improve the success rate of assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment if used in an integrated manner, similar to the integrated use of traditional Chinese medicine with ART treatment. For example, research has shown that older women who become pregnant have a high miscarriage rate, and this is one area that complementary and alternative medicines can address.

Predicting the chances of a live birth after one or more complete cycles of in vitro fertilisation: population based study of linked cycle data from 113 873 women

OBJECTIVE

 To develop a prediction model to estimate the chances of a live birth over multiple complete cycles of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) based on a couple's specific characteristics and treatment information.

DESIGN

 Population based cohort study.

SETTING

 All licensed IVF clinics in the UK. National data from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority register.

PARTICIPANTS

 All 253 417 women who started IVF (including intracytoplasmic sperm injection) treatment in the UK from 1999 to 2008 using their own eggs and partner's sperm.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

 Two clinical prediction models were developed to estimate the individualised cumulative chance of a first live birth over a maximum of six complete cycles of IVF-one model using information available before starting treatment and the other based on additional information collected during the first IVF attempt. A complete cycle is defined as all fresh and frozen-thawed embryo transfers arising from one episode of ovarian stimulation.

RESULTS

 After exclusions, 113 873 women with 184 269 complete cycles were included, of whom 33 154 (29.1%) had a live birth after their first complete cycle and 48 925 (43.0%) after six complete cycles. Key pretreatment predictors of live birth were the woman's age (31 v 37 years; adjusted odds ratio 1.66, 95% confidence interval 1.62 to 1.71) and duration of infertility (3 v 6 years; 1.09, 1.08 to 1.10). Post-treatment predictors included number of eggs collected (13 v 5 eggs; 1.29, 1.27 to 1.32), cryopreservation of embryos (1.91, 1.86 to 1.96), the woman's age (1.53, 1.49 to 1.58), and stage of embryos transferred (eg, double blastocyst v double cleavage; 1.79, 1.67 to 1.91). Pretreatment, a 30 year old woman with two years of unexplained primary infertility has a 46% chance of having a live birth from the first complete cycle of IVF and a 79% chance over three complete cycles. If she then has five eggs collected in her first complete cycle followed by a single cleavage stage embryo transfer (with no embryos left for freezing) her chances change to 28% and 56%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

 This study provides an individualised estimate of a couple's cumulative chances of having a baby over a complete package of IVF both before treatment and after the first fresh embryo transfer. This novel resource may help couples plan their treatment and prepare emotionally and financially for their IVF journey.

Younger poor ovarian response women achieved better pregnancy results in the first three IVF cycles

This retrospective cohort study observed the live birth rates as well as cumulative live birth rates in women with poor ovarian response (POR) undergoing IVF-embryo transfer treatment, stratified for age and cycle number. Four hundred and one patients with POR diagnosed according to the Bologna criteria were enrolled and 700 IVF-ET cycles were analysed. The overall live-birth rate per cycle was 18.3%. From cycle 1 up to cycle 3, the live-birth rates decreased significantly from 22.2% to 11.1%. The live-birth rate fell to 2.4% in cycles 4 and over. When age advanced, the live birth rates decreased obviously (P < 0.01): 30.0% for women < 35 years old, 17.0% for those 35-40 years old, and 9.0% for women older than 40 years. Similarly, the cumulative live birth rates dropped from 48.0% (< 35 years) to 16.9% (≥ 40 years) accordingly. Younger patients (< 35 years old) with POR achieved better pregnancy results compared with patients of advanced age. Extremely low live-birth rates could be anticipated after three unsuccessful cycles; therefore it may not be appropriate to suggest more IVF cycles in POR women.

Cumulative live birth rates after one or more complete cycles of IVF: a population-based study of linked cycle data from 178,898 women

STUDY QUESTION

What is the chance of a live birth following one or more linked complete cycles of IVF (including ICSI)?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The chance of a live birth after three complete cycles of IVF was 42.3% for treatment commencing from 1999 to 2007.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

IVF success has generally been reported on the basis of live birth rates after a single episode of treatment resulting in the transfer of a fresh embryo. This fails to capture the real chance of having a baby after a number of complete cycles-each involving the replacement of fresh as well as frozen-thawed embryos.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE AND DURATION

Population-based observational cohort study of 178 898 women between 1992 and 2007.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Participants included all women who commenced IVF treatment at a licenced clinic in the UK as recorded in the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) national database. Exclusion criteria included women whose treatment involved donor insemination, egg donation, surrogacy and the transfer of more than three embryos. Cumulative rates of live birth, term (>37 weeks) singleton live birth, and multiple pregnancy were estimated for two time-periods, 1992-1998 and 1999-2007. Conservative estimates assumed that women who did not return for IVF would not have the outcome of interest while optimal estimates assumed that these women would have similar outcome rates to those who continued IVF.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

A total of 71 551 women commenced IVF treatment during 1992-1998 and an additional 107 347 during 1999-2007. After the third complete IVF cycle (defined as three fresh IVF treatments-including replacement of any surplus frozen-thawed embryos), the conservative CLBR in women who commenced IVF during 1992-1998 was 30.8% increasing to 42.3% during 1999-2007. The optimal CLBRs were 44.6 and 57.1%, respectively. After eight complete cycles the optimal CLBR was 82.4% in the latter time period. The conservative rate for multiple pregnancy per pregnant woman fell from 31.9% during the earlier time period to 26.2% during the latter.

LIMITATIONS AND REASON FOR CAUTION

Linkage of all IVF treatments to individual women was conducted. However, it was not possible to identify with certainty in all cases the episode of ovarian stimulation which generated some of the frozen embryos. Cumulative live birth rates could not be calculated for women who started treatment beyond 2007 as follow-up data were incomplete in some of them. Following a change in legislation in 2008, linked data were only made available for research in women who gave formal consent for this purpose. BMI and ethnicity could not be reported: these demographics are not recorded in the HFEA database.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our results demonstrate, at a national level, the chances of live birth in couples undergoing a number of complete (fresh and frozen) IVF cycles. They reflect improvements in reproductive technology and a more conservative embryo transfer policy. Although most couples in the UK still do not receive three complete IVF cycles; assuming no barriers to continuation of IVF treatment, around 83% of women receiving IVF would achieve a live birth by the eighth complete cycle, similar to the natural live birth rate in a non-contraception practising population. Our results support the call from NICE to develop consistent IVF policies based on three complete cycles.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

This work was funded by a Chief Scientist Office Postdoctoral Training Fellowship in Health Services Research and Health of the Public Research (Ref PDF/12/06). The views expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Chief Scientist Office. S.B. reports grants from Chief Scientist Office Scotland during the conduct of the study. His institution has received support from Pharmaceutical companies (for educational seminars), which is not related to the submitted work. D.J.M., A.M. and A.J.L. have no conflicts of interest to declare.