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Salam I, Arsunan Arsin A, Wahyu A, Bintara Birawida A, Syam A, Mallongi A, Palutturi S, Agushybana F, Aisyah A, Yani A, Akbar Nurdin M, Elisafitri R. Modeling Dynamic System for Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Maros District. Open Access Maced J Med Sci 2021. [DOI: 10.3889/oamjms.2021.7098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Efforts to control the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) have been carried out intensively, however, there is no significant reduction in the number of DHF sufferers. Meanwhile, the predictive model is expected to be an early warning to anticipate the incidence of DHF.
AIM: Therefore, this study aims to determine the dynamic model for predicting dengue fever incidence in Maros Regency from 2020 to 2040.
METHODS: This study used the research and development (R and D) method with a dynamic systems approach. The study was conducted in Maros Regency and the data on dengue cases in Maros Regency from 2014 to 2018 were used as samples. Meanwhile, interpretive structural modeling (ISM) was used to determine policy scenarios in reducing dengue cases while the analysis of the dynamic model of dengue fever was conducted using the Powersim program.
RESULTS: The critical elements of DHF prevention in the Maros Regency include the Jumantik program, 3M Plus, early warning systems, and outreach. Furthermore, the prediction of the average incidence of dengue fever from 2020 to 2040 has decreased based on dynamic model simulations by applying the Jumantik scenario (46.8%), 3M Plus (61.17%), early warning systems (74.4%), counseling (52.12%), and the combined scenario (97.87%).
CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of dengue fever in the Maros Regency is prevented and controlled by the combination of the Jumantik program, 3M Plus, early warning systems, and counseling.
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Abstract
Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease caused by the flavivirus dengue virus (DENV). Approximately 400 million cases and 22 000 deaths occur due to dengue worldwide each year. It has been reported in more than 100 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. A positive-stranded enveloped RNA virus (DENV) is principally transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. It has four antigenically distinct serotypes, DENV-1 to DENV-4, with different genotypes and three structural proteins and seven non-structural proteins. Clinical symptoms of dengue range from mild fever to severe dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS), with thrombocytopenia, leucopenia, and increased vascular permeability. Although primary infection causes activation of immune responses against DENV serotypes, the severity of the disease is enhanced via heterotypic infection by various serotypes as well as antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). The first licensed DENV vaccine was tetravalent CYD Denvaxia, but it has not been approved in all countries. The lack of a suitable animal model, a proper mechanistic study in pathogenesis, and ADE are the main hindrances in vaccine development. This review summarizes the current knowledge on DENV epidemiology, biology, and disease aetiology in the context of prevention and protection from dengue virus disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sudipta Kumar Roy
- Cell and Molecular Biology Laboratory, Department of Zoology, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur, P.O. North Bengal University, Raja Rammohunpur, District: Darjeeling, West Bengal, 734 013, India.,Cell and Molecular Biology Laboratory, Department of Zoology, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur, P.O. North Bengal University, Raja Rammohunpur, District: Darjeeling, West Bengal, 734 013, India
| | - Soumen Bhattacharjee
- Cell and Molecular Biology Laboratory, Department of Zoology, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur, P.O. North Bengal University, Raja Rammohunpur, District: Darjeeling, West Bengal, 734 013, India.,Cell and Molecular Biology Laboratory, Department of Zoology, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur, P.O. North Bengal University, Raja Rammohunpur, District: Darjeeling, West Bengal, 734 013, India
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Arsin AA, Istiqamah SNA, Elisafitri R, Nurdin MA, Sirajuddin S, Pulubuhu DAT, Usman AN, Aisyah, Yani A. Correlational study of climate factor, mobility and the incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Kendari, Indonesia. ENFERMERIA CLINICA 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.enfcli.2020.06.064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Dewi BE, Nainggolan L, Sudiro TM, Chenderawasi S, Goentoro PL, Sjatha F. Circulation of Various Dengue Serotypes in a Community-Based Study in Jakarta, Indonesia. Jpn J Infect Dis 2020; 74:17-22. [PMID: 32611971 DOI: 10.7883/yoken.jjid.2019.431] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Dengue virus (DENV) infection remains to be a serious health problem in Indonesia. Community-based dengue studies to determine circulating DENV serotypes based on the geography and season are limited owing to the expensive cost and significant effort required. Many patients with DENV infection are not hospitalized and many visit the hospital in the later phase of the disease. In this study, we performed active DENV surveillance in a community in Jakarta to study the circulating dengue serotypes; adult febrile patients with fever less than 48 hours were recruited. Disease severity was defined using the World Health Organization (WHO) 1997 guidelines. Rapid NS1 dengue antigen detection was used to screen patients with DENV in the community. Viral culture using the C6/36 cell line, an increased antibody titer on hemagglutination inhibition test and enzyme linked immunosorbent assay, or detection of the viral genome on reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction was used to confirm DENV infection. Of the 102 patients, 68 (66.7%) were confirmed to have DENV infection, with DENV-2 being the most dominant serotype, followed by DENV-3, DENV-1, and DENV-4, in concordance with several reports of mixed DENV infection. Interestingly, in terms of disease severity, although DENV-3 infection was not the predominant circulating serotype, infection with it tended to cause a more severe disease than infection with DENV-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beti Ernawati Dewi
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia-Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Indonesia.,Community Based Dengue Study, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia-Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Indonesia.,Cluster of Infectious Diseases and Immunology. Indonesian Medical Education and Research Institute (IMERI), Indonesia
| | - Leonard Nainggolan
- Departement of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia-Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Indonesia.,Community Based Dengue Study, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia-Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Indonesia
| | - Tjahjani Mirawati Sudiro
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia-Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Indonesia.,Cluster of Infectious Diseases and Immunology. Indonesian Medical Education and Research Institute (IMERI), Indonesia
| | - Settrin Chenderawasi
- Community Based Dengue Study, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia-Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Indonesia
| | - Patricia Lukas Goentoro
- Community Based Dengue Study, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia-Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Indonesia
| | - Fithriyah Sjatha
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia-Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Indonesia.,Cluster of Infectious Diseases and Immunology. Indonesian Medical Education and Research Institute (IMERI), Indonesia
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Whole genome sequencing and genetic variations in several dengue virus type 1 strains from unusual dengue epidemic of 2017 in Vietnam. Virol J 2020; 17:7. [PMID: 31959201 PMCID: PMC6971860 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-020-1280-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2019] [Accepted: 01/09/2020] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue hemorrhagic fever is an acute viral infection transmitted by mosquitoes. In the 2017, a dengue epidemic occurred in Hanoi in a short time interval and many cases were serious with associated mortality. This was the largest and unusual dengue fever outbreak in the North of Vietnam over the past 20 years. The objective of the present study was to understand the genetic characteristics of the DENV-1 strain in the 2017 epidemic and its relationship with previous viruses in Vietnam and the rest of the world. Methods Complete genomes of 72 DENV-1 from patients in the 2017 epidemic were sequenced using NGS. The full genome sequences were then analyzed to find out the genetic variants in the groups of 72 strains, followed by their comparison with other strains that caused disease in Vietnam previously and several other regions of the world, revealing a genetic relationship between them. Results The complete genome sequence of 72 DENV-1 strains comprised 10,697 nucleotides with an open reading frame coding for 3392 amino acids. The genomic analysis revealed different amino acid substitutions in all genes, especially varying at position S75 (Capsid), M125 (PrM), D54 (E), T147, V180 (NS1), G45, Y126, I154 (NS2A), A94 (NS2B), M298 (NS3), K47, V68 (NS4A), I29 (NS4B), and R166, E536, G614, T821 (NS5). The genetic analysis suggested that the viruses were most closely related to the causative virus of the dengue outbreak in Vietnam and Cambodia from 2006 to 2008. These results indicated that DENV-1 from the dengue epidemic 2017 in Northern Vietnam originated from the virus that caused the dengue outbreak during the 2007 to 2008 period in Vietnam. Conclusion The present study is the first of its kind to describe complete genome sequence as well as genetic variants and phylogenetic analysis of DENV-1 associated with the unusual dengue epidemic of 2017 in northern Vietnam. These results provide detailed evidence to elucidate the origin, circulation, and genetic evolution of DENV in Vietnam.
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Mohamed N, Magzoub M, Mohamed REH, Aleanizy FS, Alqahtani FY, Nour BYM, Alkarsany MMS. Prevalence and identification of arthropod-transmitted viruses in Kassala state, Eastern Sudan. Libyan J Med 2019. [PMID: 30716013 PMCID: PMC6366427 DOI: 10.1080/19932820.2018.1564511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases are responsible for more than 20% of the infectious diseases worldwide. The prevalence of arboviruses transmit diseases to humans in Sudan has not been investigated. Mosquito-borne viral diseases increase globally incidence, including the Sudan. Frequent unknown fever outbreaks have been reported in eastern region, Sudan. However, diagnosis was based exclusively on clinical signs and symptoms without confirmatory laboratory investigations. However, for accurate detection of these viruses in outbreaks, molecular technique is considered. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of six arboviruses in the Kassala state of east Sudan during unknown fever outbreak. A cross sectional hospital-based study was conducted in the Kassala, Teaching Hospital. Blood samples from 119 patients suffering from unknown fever were used for screening of six arboviruses, hepatitis E virus and malarial using molecular techniques and serology. The overall arboviruses seroprevelance was 61.3% (73/119). The highest positivity rate was 73.1% (52/73) chikungunya virus; 29 males and 20 females patients were chikungunya positive. Other arboviruses were circulating in low rate 20.5% (15/73), and 6.8% (5/73) for sindbis and rift valley fever viruses respectively. Hepatitis E virus was negative in all cases and malaria positivity rate 13.4% (16/119). The prevalence of arboviruses among unknown fever patients present to Kassala teaching hospital of eastern region in Sudan is significantly high (61.3%). The chikungunya virus is the predominant causative agent of arboviruses. Molecular techniques such as PCR are important for accurate and rapid diagnosis of this viral outbreak.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nahla Mohamed
- a Faculty of Medical Laboratory Sciences , Karrary University , Omdurman , Sudan.,b Faculty of Medicine , University of Kassala, Kassala , Sudan
| | - Mamoun Magzoub
- c College of Medicine , Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University , Riyadh , Saudi Arabia.,d Clinical Microbiology Department, Virology Unit , Umeå university , Umeå , Sweden
| | - Rania El Hadi Mohamed
- e College of Science , Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University , Riyadh , Saudi Arabia.,f Federal Ministry of Health , Khartoum , Sudan
| | - Fadilah Sfouq Aleanizy
- g Department of Pharmaceutics, College of Pharmacy , King Saud University , Riyadh , Saudi Arabia
| | - Fulwah Y Alqahtani
- g Department of Pharmaceutics, College of Pharmacy , King Saud University , Riyadh , Saudi Arabia
| | - Bakri Y M Nour
- h Blue Nile National Institute for Communicable Diseases , University of Gezira , Wad Medani , Sudan.,i Department of Parasitology , University of Gezira , Wad Medani , Sudan
| | - Mubark M S Alkarsany
- c College of Medicine , Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University , Riyadh , Saudi Arabia
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