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Zhang M, Huang JF, Kang M, Liu XC, Lin HY, Zhao ZY, Ye GQ, Lin SN, Rui J, Xu JW, Zhu YZ, Wang Y, Yang M, Tang SX, Cheng Q, Chen TM. Epidemiological Characteristics and the Dynamic Transmission Model of Dengue Fever in Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province in 2018. Trop Med Infect Dis 2022; 7:tropicalmed7090209. [PMID: 36136620 PMCID: PMC9501079 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7090209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2022] [Revised: 08/14/2022] [Accepted: 08/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: With the progress of urbanization, the mobility of people has gradually increased, which has led to the further spread of dengue fever. This study evaluated the transmissibility of dengue fever within districts and between different districts in Zhanjiang City to provide corresponding advice for cross-regional prevention and control. Methods: A mathematical model of transmission dynamics was developed to explore the transmissibility of the disease and to compare that between different regions. Results: A total of 467 DF cases (6.38 per 100,000 people) were reported in Zhanjiang City in 2018. In the model, without any intervention, the number of simulated cases in this epidemic reached about 950. The dengue fever transmissions between districts varied within and between regions. When the spread of dengue fever from Chikan Districts to other districts was cut off, the number of cases in other districts dropped significantly or even to zero. When the density of mosquitoes in Xiashan District was controlled, the dengue fever epidemic in Xiashan District was found to be significantly alleviated. Conclusions: When there is a dengue outbreak, timely measures can effectively control it from developing into an epidemic. Different prevention and control measures in different districts could efficiently reduce the risk of disease transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meng Zhang
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Jie-Feng Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Min Kang
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
| | - Xing-Chun Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Hong-Yan Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Ze-Yu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Guo-Qiang Ye
- Zhanjiang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhanjiang 524037, China
| | - Sheng-Nan Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Jia Rui
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Jing-Wen Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Yuan-Zhao Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Yao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Meng Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Shi-Xing Tang
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
- Correspondence: (S.-X.T.); (Q.C.); (T.-M.C.); Tel.: +1-4242489768 (Q.C.); +86-13661934715 (T.-M.C.)
| | - Qu Cheng
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94704, USA
- Correspondence: (S.-X.T.); (Q.C.); (T.-M.C.); Tel.: +1-4242489768 (Q.C.); +86-13661934715 (T.-M.C.)
| | - Tian-Mu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
- Correspondence: (S.-X.T.); (Q.C.); (T.-M.C.); Tel.: +1-4242489768 (Q.C.); +86-13661934715 (T.-M.C.)
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