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Ponkilainen V, Kuitunen I, Liukkonen R, Vaajala M, Reito A, Uimonen M. The incidence of musculoskeletal injuries: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Bone Joint Res 2022; 11:814-825. [DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.1111.bjr-2022-0181.r1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Aims The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to gather epidemiological information on selected musculoskeletal injuries and to provide pooled injury-specific incidence rates. Methods PubMed (National Library of Medicine) and Scopus (Elsevier) databases were searched. Articles were eligible for inclusion if they reported incidence rate (or count with population at risk), contained data on adult population, and were written in English language. The number of cases and population at risk were collected, and the pooled incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by using either a fixed or random effects model. Results The screening of titles yielded 206 articles eligible for inclusion in the study. Of these, 173 (84%) articles provided sufficient information to be included in the pooled incidence rates. Incidences of fractures were investigated in 154 studies, and the most common fractures in the whole adult population based on the pooled incidence rates were distal radius fractures (212.0, 95% CI 178.1 to 252.4 per 100,000 person-years), finger fractures (117.1, 95% CI 105.3 to 130.2 per 100,000 person-years), and hip fractures (112.9, 95% CI 82.2 to 154.9 per 100,000 person-years). The most common sprains and dislocations were ankle sprains (429.4, 95% CI 243.0 to 759.0 per 100,000 person-years) and first-time patellar dislocations (32.8, 95% CI 21.6 to 49.7 per 100,000 person-years). The most common injuries were anterior cruciate ligament (17.5, 95% CI 6.0 to 50.2 per 100,000 person-years) and Achilles (13.7, 95% CI 9.6 to 19.5 per 100,000 person-years) ruptures. Conclusion The presented pooled incidence estimates serve as important references in assessing the global economic and social burden of musculoskeletal injuries. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(11):814–825.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ville Ponkilainen
- Department of Surgery, Central Finland Hospital Nova, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Ilari Kuitunen
- University of Eastern Finland, Institute of Clinical Medicine, Kuopio, Finland
| | - Rasmus Liukkonen
- Tampere University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere, Finland
| | - Matias Vaajala
- Tampere University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere, Finland
| | - Aleksi Reito
- Tampere University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere, Finland
| | - Mikko Uimonen
- Department of Surgery, Central Finland Hospital Nova, Jyväskylä, Finland
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Fujimaki H, Tomioka M, Kanoshima Y, Morita A, Yamori T, Inaba Y. Accuracy of the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool for judging pharmacotherapy initiation for primary osteoporosis. J Bone Miner Metab 2022; 40:860-868. [PMID: 35945295 DOI: 10.1007/s00774-022-01356-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION This study aimed to determine whether the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®) is useful in assessing the criteria for the initiation of pharmacotherapy for primary osteoporosis based on the current diagnostic criteria in Japan. MATERIALS AND METHODS We enrolled 614 patients aged ≥ 40 years (average, 77.0 years) who were eligible for primary osteoporosis evaluation. Bone mineral density measurements of the lumbar spine, total hip, and femoral neck using ALPHYS LF (FUJIFILM, Tokyo, Japan) and imaging studies involving the lumbar spine were obtained and the FRAX® scores of each patient were calculated with and without the T-score of the femoral neck. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis method was used to calculate the cut-off FRAX® scores with reference to the criteria for initiating pharmacotherapy for osteoporosis; the accuracies of both FRAX® scores were compared. RESULTS The FRAX® score calculated with the T-score was more accurate for hip fracture risk assessment [cut-off value 5.5%; the area under the curve (AUC) 0.946] than for major osteoporotic fracture risk assessment (cut-off value 17.0%; AUC 0.924) in judging the criteria (p = 0.001). Conversely, the FRAX® score calculated without the T-score was equally accurate for hip fracture risk assessment (AUC 0.796) and major osteoporotic fracture risk assessment (AUC 0.806) (p = 0.23). CONCLUSION The FRAX® score can accurately assess the criteria for initiating pharmacotherapy for primary osteoporosis based on the current Japanese diagnostic criteria, especially when the T-score is used.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiroshi Fujimaki
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Yokohama Ekisaikai Hospital, 1-2 Yamada-cho, Naka-ku, Yokohama City, 231-0036, Japan.
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Yokohama City University, 3-9, Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama City, 236-0004, Japan.
| | - Masamitsu Tomioka
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Yokohama Ekisaikai Hospital, 1-2 Yamada-cho, Naka-ku, Yokohama City, 231-0036, Japan
| | - Yuko Kanoshima
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Yokohama Ekisaikai Hospital, 1-2 Yamada-cho, Naka-ku, Yokohama City, 231-0036, Japan
| | - Akira Morita
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Yokohama Ekisaikai Hospital, 1-2 Yamada-cho, Naka-ku, Yokohama City, 231-0036, Japan
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Yokohama City University, 3-9, Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama City, 236-0004, Japan
| | - Tetsuya Yamori
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Yokohama Ekisaikai Hospital, 1-2 Yamada-cho, Naka-ku, Yokohama City, 231-0036, Japan
| | - Yutaka Inaba
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Yokohama City University, 3-9, Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama City, 236-0004, Japan
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Cossio-Bolanos M, Vidal-Espinoza R, Fuentes-Lopez J, Castelli Correia de Campos LF, Andruske CL, Urra-Albornoz C, Alvear Vasquez F, Gomez-Campos R. Reference values for bone density and bone mineral content from 5 to 80 years old in a province of Chile. PeerJ 2022; 10:e13092. [PMID: 35345584 PMCID: PMC8957281 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.13092] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2021] [Accepted: 02/18/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The assessment of bone health throughout the life cycle is essential to determine fracture risk. The objectives of the work were (a) compare bone mineral density and content with international references from the United States, (b) determine maximum bone mass, (c) propose references for bone health measurements from ages 5 to 80 years old. Methods Research was carried out on 5,416 subjects. Weight and height were measured. Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated. The total body was scanned using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Information was extracted from the bone health measures (bone mineral density (BMD) and bone mineral content (BMC)) for both sexes, according to pediatric and adult software. Results and Discussion Differences were identified between the mean values of Chilean and American men for BMD (~0.03 to 0.11 g/cm2) and BMC (~0.15 to 0.46 g). Chilean females showed average values for BMD similar to the US references (~-0.01 to 0.02 g/cm2). At the same time, they were relatively higher for BMC (~0.07 to 0.33 g). The cubic polynomial regression model reflected a relationship between BMD and BMC with chronological age in both sexes. For males, R2 was higher (R2 = 0.72 and 0.75) than for females (R2 = 0.59 and 0.66). The estimate of maximum bone mass (MBM) for males emerged at 30 years old (1.45 ± 0.18 g/cm2 of BMD and 3.57 ± 0.60 g of BMC) and for females at age 28 (1.22 ± 0.13 g/cm2 of BMD and 2.57 ± 0.44 g of BMC). The LMS technique was used to generate smoothed percentiles for BMD and BMC by age and sex. Results showed that maximum bone mass occurred in females at age 28 and in males at 30. Reference values obtained from this research may be used to evaluate bone health, diagnose bone fragility and osteoporosis in individuals and regional population groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marco Cossio-Bolanos
- Departamento de Ciencias de la Actividad Física, Universidad Católica del Maule, Maule, Talca, Chile
| | | | - Jose Fuentes-Lopez
- Instituto de Investigación en Ciencias de la Educación (IICE), Escuela Profesional de Educación Física, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano de Puno, Puno, Perú
| | | | | | - Camilo Urra-Albornoz
- Escuela de Ciencias del Deporte y Actividad Física, Facultad de Salud, Universidad Santo Tomás, Talca, Chile
| | | | - Rossana Gomez-Campos
- Departamento de Diversidad e Inclusividad Educativa, Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca, Chile
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Darawad MW, Shawashi TO, Al Duraidi H, Nofal B. Osteoporosis education: Evaluation of an awareness program among female university students. Int J Orthop Trauma Nurs 2022; 45:100926. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ijotn.2022.100926] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2021] [Revised: 02/06/2022] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Decreasing hip fracture rates among older adults in Chile, 2001-2019. Arch Osteoporos 2022; 17:26. [PMID: 35091883 DOI: 10.1007/s11657-022-01067-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2021] [Accepted: 01/20/2022] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
Our aim was to analyze trends in hip fracture rates in people aged ≥ 65 years, from 2001 to 2019 in Chile. Age-standardized incidence rates decreased significantly in both genders over the study period. PURPOSE To describe and analyze the characteristics and trends of osteoporotic hip fractures in Chile from 2001 to 2019, by age and sex. METHODS We assessed hip fractures in people aged ≥ 65 years using data from the hospital discharge register of Chile's Department of Statistics and Health. The Joinpoint regression analysis software was used to perform a trend analysis. RESULTS From 2001 to 2019, a total of 107.972 patients aged ≥ 65 years were hospitalized in Chile with a diagnosis of hip fracture (S72.0, S72.1, and S72.2). 77.4% of the patients were females, and 63.7% were adults aged ≥ 80 years. The average annual incidence rate over this period was 358.3/100.000 in the whole population (95% CI: ± 12.8), 195.2/100.000 in men (95% CI: ± 9), and 482/100.000 in women (95% CI: ± 15.5). After an adjustment for age, hip fracture rates decreased annually on average by 1.0% (p < 0.001, 95% CI: - 1.4%, - 0.7%), from 358.5/100.000 in 2001 to 331.7/100.000 in 2019. Hip fracture rates decreased annually in both men (- 1.4%, p < 0.001) and women (- 0.9%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION The incidence of osteoporotic hip fractures has been decreasing annually and significantly in Chile since 2001, both in men and women. This may be caused by increased levels of obesity and a lower risk of falling among older adults. We recommend further studies to assess all factors contributing to this change in hip fracture rates.
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Xu L, Jan S, Chen M, Si L. Sociodemographic and health system factors associated with variations in hospitalization costs for fractures in adults aged 45 years and over: a cross-sectional study of provincial health accounts in Jiangsu Province, China. Arch Osteoporos 2021; 16:147. [PMID: 34606013 DOI: 10.1007/s11657-021-01009-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2021] [Accepted: 09/22/2021] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED This study reports hospitalization costs of fracture in Chinese patients aged over 45 years and evaluates their related factors in different fracture groups. PURPOSE To report hospitalization costs of treating fractures in Chinese patients aged over 45 years and to investigate the sociodemographic and health system factors related to variation in the costs. METHODS Study participants were selected from the 2016 Health Accounts Database in Jiangsu in which patients' hospitalization costs were kept at various levels in hospitals. A multi-stage stratified sampling method was used to select study participants. Electronic medical records of patients aged 45 years and over with fractures were included. The International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) was used to identify patients who were hospitalized due to fractures. A generalized linear model was used to estimate the extent to which a range of health system and sociodemographic factors were associated with the variation on hospitalization costs. Costs data were presented and analyzed using 2016 U.S. dollars. RESULTS A total of 39,300 patients were included in the study. Vertebra, tibia/fibula, and hip were the most frequent fracture sites. The mean (median) of hospitalization cost of included fractures ranged from USD 3142 (USD 2420) for hand and wrist fractures to USD 10,355 (USD 9673) for hip fractures. Longer length of hospital stay, higher hospital level, and being covered by a health insurance were associated with higher hospitalization costs for all fracture types. CONCLUSION Our study reports hospital costs of the fracture using a large health accounts database in China and investigates the associated factors of hospital costs. Our results may inform cost-of-illness studies and economic evaluations of fracture preventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lizheng Xu
- The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,UNSW Medicine, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Stephen Jan
- The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Mingsheng Chen
- School of Health Policy and Management, Nanjing Medical University, No. 101, Longmian Avenue, Nanjing, 211166, China. .,Creative Health Policy Research Group, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China. .,Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
| | - Lei Si
- The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,UNSW Medicine, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,School of Health Policy and Management, Nanjing Medical University, No. 101, Longmian Avenue, Nanjing, 211166, China
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Ormeño Illanes JCR, Quevedo Langenegger I. Higher latitude and lower solar radiation influence on hip fracture admissions in Chilean older population. Osteoporos Int 2021; 32:2033-2041. [PMID: 33818634 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-021-05910-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2020] [Accepted: 03/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Data linking solar radiation with fractures are lacking. We found that lower solar radiation was associated with higher hip fracture admission rates in men from Chile. This supports the idea that solar radiation, a surrogate of vitamin D, may be involved in the development of fractures in older population. INTRODUCTION : To explore the associations between solar radiation and latitude with hip fracture admission rates in people aged 65 years or older in Chile, the country with the greatest variation in solar radiation in the world. METHODS In this ecological study, we investigated the associations between regional solar radiation and latitude with hospitalizations due to hip fracture in population aged 65 years or older, by reviewing national records between 2013 and 2018. We also evaluated the role of sociodemographic factors such as poverty, education, indigenous ethnicity, and rurality rates. RESULTS Between 2013 and 2018, there were 44,328 admissions due to hip fracture in people aged 65 years or older; 77.5% were women and 65.1% were aged 80 years or older. The national admission rate was 389.3 per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI: 382.4-396.2). The highest admission rate was registered in the Region IX (445.3 per 100,000, 95% CI: 398.3-492.4), which has the highest poverty rates, indigenous ethnicity rates, and rurality rates. We found a north-south increasing gradient of admission rates in men (β=1.5 [95% CI: 0 to 3], p=0.044) and a significant association between solar radiation and admission rates in men (β=-4.4 [95% CI: -8 to 0.8], p=0.02). Admission rates in men were also associated with sociodemographic variables such as poverty (β=2.4 [95% CI: 0 to 4.8], p=0.048) and rurality rates (β=1.2 [95% CI: 0.1 to 2.4], p=0.039). CONCLUSION Regional solar radiation and latitude were associated with hip fracture admission rates in men aged 65 years or older in Chile, with highest admission rates at higher latitudes and lower solar radiation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - I Quevedo Langenegger
- Endocrinology Section, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Concepción, Concepción, Chile
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Yoon SH, Kim BR, Lee SY, Beom J, Choi JH, Lim JY. Influence of comorbidities on functional outcomes in patients with surgically treated fragility hip fractures: a retrospective cohort study. BMC Geriatr 2021; 21:283. [PMID: 33910513 PMCID: PMC8082882 DOI: 10.1186/s12877-021-02227-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2021] [Accepted: 04/15/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The incidence and number of fragility hip fractures are gradually increasing, resulting in a wide consumption of medical resources. Various factors affecting functional recovery in patients with fragility hip fractures are known, and comorbid diseases are one of them. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of comorbidities on functional outcomes in patients surgically treated for fragility hip fractures, thereby contributing to the efficient distribution of medical resources. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study performed in the three tertiary rehabilitation facilities. A total of 211 patients (50 men and 161 women; average age 81.6 ± 6.7 years) who had undergone surgery for fragility hip fractures were followed up from immediately after transfer to the Department of Rehabilitation Medicine to 6 months postoperatively. Comorbidities referred to a summary of the following conditions: hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic liver disease, dementia, cerebrovascular accident, and osteoporosis. Functional outcomes included Koval’s grade, Functional Ambulatory Category (FAC), Functional Independence Measure (FIM)-locomotion, Modified Rivermead Mobility Index, Berg Balance Scale (BBS), 4-Meter Walking speed Test (4MWT), the Korean version of the Mini-Mental State Examination(K-MMSE), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), EuroQol Five-Dimension (EQ-5D) questionnaire, the Korean version of the Modified Barthel Index (K-MBI), the Korean version of the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (K-IADL), and Korean version of Fatigue, Resistance, Ambulation, Illnesses, and Loss of weight scale (K-FRAIL). For all tests, each patient was assessed immediately after transfer and 6 months post-surgery. Results Multivariate linear regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, the initial variable of the functional outcomes, and comorbidities revealed that dementia had a significant negative impact on Koval’s grade and K-FRAIL 6 months postoperatively. Diabetes mellitus had a significant negative impact on the FAC, GDS, EQ-5D, K-IADL, and K-FRAIL 6 months postoperatively. Patients with osteoporosis showed a significant negative outcome of FIM-locomotion 6 months postoperatively. A cerebrovascular accident revealed a significant negative impact on the BBS 6 months postoperatively. In addition, hypertension led to significantly less favorable outcomes of the K-FRAIL 6 months postoperatively. Conclusions This study confirmed that comorbidities, particularly dementia and diabetes mellitus, significantly influence functional outcomes 6 months after fragility hip fracture surgeries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Soo Hoon Yoon
- Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Korea University Anam Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine, 73 Goryeodae-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Bo Ryun Kim
- Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Korea University Anam Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine, 73 Goryeodae-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea.
| | - Sang Yoon Lee
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jaewon Beom
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea
| | - Jun Hwan Choi
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Regional Rheumatoid and Degenerative Arthritis Center, Jeju National University Hospital, Jeju National University College of Medicine, Jeju, Republic of Korea
| | - Jae-Young Lim
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea
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Yaglova N, Yaglov V. Endocrine Disruptors as a New Etiologic Factor of Bone Tissue Diseases (Review). Sovrem Tekhnologii Med 2021; 13:84-94. [PMID: 34513081 PMCID: PMC8353721 DOI: 10.17691/stm2021.13.2.10] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2020] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
At present, diseases of bones and joints stand third after cardiovascular and oncological pathologies which demands the necessity of searching for new etiological factors and pathogenetical mechanisms of these illnesses. The accumulating data show the association between the impairment of bone tissue development and regeneration and endocrine disruptor impact. Endocrine disruptors are chemical substances, mainly of anthropogenic origin, capable of affecting endocrine system functioning and interfering with organ morphogenesis and physiological functions. The development and regeneration of bone tissues have a complex hormonal regulation and therefore bone tissue cells, osteoblasts, and osteoclasts can be considered as potential targets for endocrine disruptors. Endocrine disruptors have been established to be able to impair calcium metabolism which also contributes to the development of musculoskeletal system pathology. Data on histogenesis of bone tissue and regeneration, calcium metabolism as well as on hormonal regulation of bone growth and remodeling processes are presented in this work. Recent information on the effect of the main endocrine disruptor classes (diethylstilbestrol, organochlorine pesticides, alkylphenols, bisphenol A, dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyls, and phthalic acid esters) on the development and remodeling of bone tissues and calcium metabolism has been summarized. The established physiological and molecular mechanisms of their action have been also considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- N.V. Yaglova
- Head of the Laboratory of Endocrine System Development, Research Institute of Human Morphology, 3 Tsyurupy St., Moscow, 117418, Russia
| | - V.V. Yaglov
- Chief Researcher, Laboratory of Endocrine System Development, Research Institute of Human Morphology, 3 Tsyurupy St., Moscow, 117418, Russia
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Hip fractures in the elderly Chilean population: a projection for 2030. Arch Osteoporos 2020; 15:116. [PMID: 32720199 DOI: 10.1007/s11657-020-00794-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2020] [Accepted: 07/21/2020] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Using national databases, we projected the magnitude of hip fractures among the elderly Chilean population by 2030. Hip fractures will increase by 27.5% from 2018 to 9862 cases (95% CI = 8760 to 10,965). The most substantial growth is expected to occur in patients older than 80 years of age. INTRODUCTION There is scarce information regarding the magnitude of hip fractures that will be observed in Latin American countries in the near future. The aim of this study is to project the volume of hip fractures in the elderly Chilean population by the year 2030. METHODS The database of the Chilean Department of Statistics and Health Information, which includes all hospital discharges within Chile, was employed to evaluate the volume of hip fractures observed from 2012 to 2018 in the elderly population (≥ 65 years old). The annual incidence was determined by combining the volume of fractures with census data. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine the projected volume of hip fractures for 2030. RESULTS For 2030, hip fractures among the elderly population are projected to grow 27.5% (R2 = 0.92) to 9862 cases (95% CI = 8760 to 10,965). In the group from 65 to 79 years old, hip fractures are expected to grow 21.6% (R2 = 0.87) to 3046 cases (95% CI = 2686 to 3405). In patients ≥ 80 years of age, hip fractures are expected to grow 30.1% (R2 = 0.9) to 6817 cases (95% CI = 5889 to 7744). CONCLUSIONS A substantial growth in the volume of hip fractures is expected for the next decade among the elderly Chilean population, especially in patients ≥ 80 years of age. A national healthcare strategy should consider efforts to mitigate the impact of the future burden related to patients' care.
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