Predictors for High-Risk Carotid Plaque in Asymptomatic Korean Population

A Radiomics-Based Nomogram Using Ultrasound Carotid Plaque Evaluation For Predicting Cerebro-Cardiovascular Events In Asymptomatic Patients

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess whether a radiomics-based nomogram correlates with a higher risk of future cerebro-cardiovascular events in patients with asymptomatic carotid plaques. Additionally, it investigates the nomogram's contribution to the revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (rFSRP) for predicting cerebro-cardiovascular risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Predictive models aimed at identifying an increased risk of future cerebro-cardiovascular events were developed and internally validated at one center, then externally validated at two other centers. Survival curves, constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method, were compared through the log-rank test.

RESULTS

This study included a total of 2009 patients (3946 images). The final nomogram was generated using multivariate Cox regression variables, including dyslipidemia, lumen diameter, plaque echogenicity, and ultrasonography (US)-based radiomics risk. The Harrell's concordance index (C-index) for predicting events-free survival (EFS) was 0.708 in the training cohort, 0.574 in the external validation cohort 1, 0.632 in the internal validation cohort, and 0.639 in the external validation cohort 2. The final nomogram showed a significant increase in C-index compared to the clinical, conventional US, and US-based radiomics models (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, the final nomogram-assisted method significantly improved the sensitivity and accuracy of radiologists' visual qualitative score of plaque (both P < 0.001). Among 1058 patients with corresponding 1588 plaque US images classified as low-risk by the rFSRP, 75 (7.1%) patients with corresponding 93 (5.9%) carotid plaque images were appropriately reclassified to the high-risk category by the final nomogram.

CONCLUSION

The radiomics-based nomogram demonstrated accurate prediction of cerebro-cardiovascular events in patients with asymptomatic carotid plaques. It also improved the sensitivity and accuracy of radiologists' visual qualitative score of carotid plaque and enhanced the risk stratification ability of rFSRP.

SUMMARY

The radiomics-based nomogram allowed accurate prediction of cerebro-cardiovascular events, especially ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with asymptomatic carotid atherosclerotic plaques.

KEY RESULTS

The radiomics-based nomogram allowed accurate prediction of cerebro-cardiovascular events, especially ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with asymptomatic carotid atherosclerotic plaques. The radiomics-based nomogram improved the sensitivity and accuracy of radiologists' visual qualitative score of carotid plaque. The radiomics-based nomogram improved the discrimination of high-risk populations from low-risk populations in asymptomatic patients with carotid atherosclerotic plaques and the risk stratification capability of the rFSRP.

The Association Between Hemoglobin Glycation Index and Carotid Artery Plaque in Patients With Coronary Heart Disease

This study aimed to examine the association between the hemoglobin glycation index (HGI) and carotid artery plaque (CAP) in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 10,778 patients with CHD. The participants were divided into three groups by HGI tertiles (T1 HGI<-0.44, T2 -0.44 ≤ HGI ≤ 0.15, T3 HGI>0.15). The presence of CAP was used to diagnose by carotid ultrasonography. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the association between the HGI and CAP. The association between HGI and CAP was also assessed according to sex, age, smoking status, and drinking status. We further assessed the association between HGI and the ultrasound characteristics of CAP. The baseline analysis showed substantial differences in relevant parameters between the three groups of patients with CHD according to the tertiles of the HGI. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that HGI was significantly associated with CAP (odds ratio [OR] 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-1.39). The association between HGI and CAP exists among different sex, age, smoking, and drinking status. Furthermore, there was a significant and positive association between HGI and all four different echogenicities of the CAP.

Validity and Reliability of Point-of-Care Ultrasound for Detecting Moderate- or High-Grade Carotid Atherosclerosis in an Outpatient Department

The prevalence of carotid stenosis is considerably higher in asymptomatic individuals with multiple risk factors than in the general population. We investigated the validity and reliability of carotid point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) for rapid carotid atherosclerosis screening. We prospectively enrolled asymptomatic individuals with carotid risk scores of ≥7 who underwent outpatient carotid POCUS and laboratory carotid sonography. Their simplified carotid plaque scores (sCPSs) and Handa's carotid plaque scores (hCPSs) were compared. Of 60 patients (median age, 81.9 years), 50% were diagnosed as having moderate- or high-grade carotid atherosclerosis. The overestimation and underestimation of outpatient sCPSs were more likely in patients with low and high laboratory-derived sCPSs, respectively. Bland-Altman plots indicated that the mean differences between the participants' outpatients and laboratory sCPSs were within two standard deviations of their laboratory sCPSs. A Spearman's rank correlation coefficient revealed a strong positive linear correlation between outpatient and laboratory sCPSs (r = 0.956, p < 0.001). An intraclass correlation coefficient analysis indicated excellent reliability between the two methods (0.954). Both carotid risk score and sCPS were positively and linearly correlated with laboratory hCPS. Our findings indicate that POCUS has satisfactory agreement, strong correlation, and excellent reliability with laboratory carotid sonography, making it suitable for rapid screening of carotid atherosclerosis in high-risk patients.

Factors associated with the elasticity of asymptomatic carotid plaques in hypertension Tibetan population

AIMS

Hypertension is a major risk factor for coronary, cerebrovascular, and the greatest cause of stroke. Half of stroke events are the result of cerebrovascular atherosclerosis, including carotid plaques. It is of major importance to detect which plaques are vulnerable, even though not yet ruptured. Due to the particularity of the Tibetan population, this study evaluated the elasticity of asymptomatic carotid plaques in Tibetan hypertension patients using shear wave elastography (SWE) and explored associated risk factors.

METHODS

A total of 91 Tibetan patients were divided into normotension, grade 1-2, and grade 3 hypertension groups based on the level of blood pressure. All subjects underwent common duplex ultrasonic examination and SWE evaluation for carotid plaques. Elasticity of carotid plaque was assessed by Young's modulus.

RESULTS

The final analysis included 126 plaques as representative plaques according to Total Plaque Risk Score. The mean and maximum Young's modulus in the grade 3 hypertension group were smaller, and more plaques with irregularity surface compared with the other two groups (p < 0.05). Multivariate regression analysis showed drinking butter tea (β = -0.220, p = 0.009; β = -0.240, p = 0.004, respectively) was the independent factor associated with mean and maximum Young's modulus.

CONCLUSIONS

SWE is feasible for measurement of Young's modulus of carotid plaques. Plaques in the grade 3 hypertension group were more likely to become vulnerable ones. In hypertension Tibetan patients, drinking butter tea was an independent factor associated with mean and maximum Young's modulus of asymptomatic carotid plaque.

The blood monocyte to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (MHR) is a possible marker of carotid artery plaque

BACKGROUND

MHR is the ratio of monocyte to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). It has been reported that MHR changes are associated with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease. Carotid plaque is a common vascular lesion of the carotid artery and is a manifestation of atherogenesis. This study investigated the relationships between the MHR and the incidence of carotid plaques.

METHODS

The data of 3848 physical examiners were analyzed for retrospective analysis, which included 1428 patients with noncarotid plaque, 1133 patients with single carotid plaque, and 1287 patients with bilateral or multiple carotid plaques. Statistical analysis was performed on SPSS 22.0 0 software and statistical software R and its GAM package.

RESULTS

The difference was statistically significant in the levels of MHR, body mass index (BMI), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), blood lipids (HDL-C, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (Tg)), blood glucose (Glu), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), renal function (urea, creatinine (Crea)), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and uric acid (Ua) in the carotid plaque groups (P < 0.001, respectively). There was no significant difference between the sex (P = 0.635) and age (P = 0.063) in the different groups. MHR levels were positively correlated with BMI (r = 0.364, P < 0.001), hs-CRP (r = 0.320, P < 0.001), Tg (r = 0.417, P < 0.001), Crea (r = 0.323, P < 0.001), eGFR (r = - 0.248, P < 0.001), Ua (r = 0.383, P < 0.001) and HbA1c (r = 0.197, P < 0.001). Levels of TC, Glu, and urea were slightly correlated with the MHR level (r = - 0.150, P < 0.001; r = 0.187, P < 0.001; r = 0.137, P < 0.001, respectively). The MHR level increased with elevated severity of carotid plaque in subjects without hypertension or diabetes (P < 0.001). In adjusted models, with the rise of MHR level, the probability of occurrence of carotid plaque had a 1.871-fold (95% CI: 1.015-3.450, P = 0.045) increase; the probability of multiple occurrences of carotid plaques had a 2.896-fold (95% CI: 1.415-5.928, P < 0.001) increase. The GAM curve showed a nonlinear correlation between the normalized MHR and the probability of carotid plaque occurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

MHR could be used as a possible marker for plaque formation and severity.

High systemic immune-inflammation index is associated with carotid plaque vulnerability: New findings based on carotid ultrasound imaging in patients with acute ischemic stroke

Vulnerable carotid plaque is closely related to the occurrence of Ischemic stroke. Therefore, accurate and rapid identification of the nature of carotid plaques is essential. AS is a chronic immune inflammatory process. Systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) is a novel index of immune inflammation obtained from routine whole blood cell count analysis, which comprehensively reflects the state of inflammation and immune balance in the body. This study sought to explore the relationship between SII level and carotid plaque vulnerability, plaque composition characteristics, and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) severity. A total of 131 patients diagnosed with AIS presenting with a carotid atherosclerotic plaque were enrolled in this study. Using carotid ultrasound (CDU) to assess the carotid-responsible plaque properties, we divided the patients into stable plaques group and vulnerable plaques group, and analyzed the correlation between SII levels and plaque vulnerability. And we further analyzed to evaluate the correlation between high SII levels and plaque characteristics and AIS severity. In addition, Cohen's Kappa statistics was used to detect the consistency of Carotid ultrasound (US) and cervical High-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (HRMRI) in evaluating plaque vulnerability. The findings showed that the vulnerable group had higher levels of SII compared with the stable group. The high SII group had more vulnerable plaques and a high frequency of plaque fibrous cap rupture compared with the low SII group. Logistic analysis showed that a high SII level was an independent risk factor for vulnerable plaques (odds ratio [OR] = 2.242) and plaque fibrous cap rupture (OR=3.462). The results also showed a high consistency between Carotid US and HRMRI methods in the assessment of plaque vulnerability [Cohen's kappa value was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.78-0.97)] and the level of SII was positively associated with NIHSS score (r = 0.473, P < 0.001). Our study suggests that elevated levels of SII may have adverse effects on the vulnerability of carotid plaques, especially in stroke patients with vulnerable plaques with ruptured fibrous caps, which may aggravate the severity of AIS.

Frequency of adrenal insufficiency in patients with hypoglycemia in an emergency department: A cross-sectional study

Context

In most patients presenting with hypoglycemia in emergency departments, the etiology of hypoglycemia is identified. However, it cannot be determined in approximately 10% of cases.

Objective

We aimed to identify the causes of unknown hypoglycemia, especially adrenal insufficiency.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, we evaluated the etiology of hypoglycemia among patients in our emergency department with hypoglycemia (plasma glucose level &lt;70 mg/dL [3.9 mmol/L]) between April 1, 2016, and March 31, 2021, using a rapid adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) test.

Results

There were 528 cases with hypoglycemia included (52.1% male; median age 62 years [range 19 to 92]). The majority (389 [73.7%]) of patients were using anti-diabetes drugs. Additionally, 33 (6.3%) consumed alcohol, 17 (3.2%) suffered from malnutrition, 13 (2.5%) liver dysfunction, 12 (2.3%) severe infectious disease, 11 (2.1%) malignancy, 9 (1.7%) heart failure, 4 (0.8%) insulin autoimmune syndrome, 3 (0.6%) insulinoma, 2 (0.4%) were using hypoglycemia-relevant drugs, and 1 (0.2%) suffered from non-islet cell tumor. Rapid ACTH tests revealed adrenal insufficiency in 32 (6.1%). In those patients, serum sodium levels were lower (132 vs. 139 mEq/L, P&lt;0.01), eosinophil counts were higher (14 vs. 8%, P&lt;0.01), and systolic blood pressure was lower (120 vs. 128 mmHg, P&lt;0.05) at baseline than in patients with the other etiologies, respectively.

Conclusion

The frequency of adrenal insufficiency as a cause of hypoglycemia was much higher than what we anticipated. When protracted hypoglycemia of unknown etiology is recognized, we recommend that the patient is checked for adrenal function using a rapid ACTH test.

Nomogram and Carotid Risk Score for Predicting Moderate or High Carotid Atherosclerosis among Asymptomatic Elderly Recycling Volunteers

Carotid atherosclerosis is associated with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. We explored an appropriate method for selecting participants without ischemic cerebrovascular disease but with various comorbidities eligible for a carotid ultrasound. This was a retrospective subgroup analysis of the carotid plaque burden from a previous study involving a vascular and cognitive survey of 956 elderly recycling volunteers (778 women and 178 men; mean age: 70.8 years). We used carotid ultrasound to detect the carotid plaque and computed the carotid plaque score (CPS). A moderate or high degree of carotid atherosclerosis (MHCA) was defined as CPS > 5 and was observed in 22% of the participants. The CPS had positive linear correlations with age, systolic blood pressure, and fasting glucose. We stratified the participants into four age groups: 60−69, 70−74, 75−79, and ≥80 years. Multivariable analysis revealed that significant predictors for MHCA were age, male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, and a nonvegetarian diet. Coronary artery disease and advanced age were the two strongest predictors. We chose the aforementioned seven significant predictors to establish a nomogram for MHCA prediction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in internal validation with 10-fold cross-validation and the classification accuracy of the nomogram were 0.785 and 0.797, respectively. We presumed people who have a ≥50% probability of MHCA warranted a carotid ultrasound. A flowchart table derived from the nomogram addressing the probabilities of all models of combinations of comorbidities was established to identify participants who had a probability of MHCA ≥ 50% (corresponding to a total nomogram score of ≥15 points). We further established a carotid risk score range from 0 to 17 comprising the seven predictors. A carotid risk score ≥ 7 was the most optimal cutoff value associated with a probability of MHCA ≥ 50%. Both total nomogram score ≥ 15 points and carotid risk score ≥ 7 can help in the rapid identification of individuals without stroke but who have a ≥50% probability of MHCA—these individuals should schedule a carotid ultrasound.

Texture Analysis Based on Vascular Ultrasound to Identify the Vulnerable Carotid Plaques

Vulnerable carotid plaques are closely related to the occurrence of ischemic stroke. Therefore, accurate and rapid identification of the nature of carotid plaques is essential. This study aimed to determine whether texture analysis based on a vascular ultrasound can be applied to identify vulnerable plaques. Data from a total of 150 patients diagnosed with atherosclerotic plaque (AP) by carotid ultrasound (CDU) and high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (HRMRI) were collected. HRMRI is the in vivo reference to assess the nature of AP. MaZda software was used to delineate the region of interest and extract 303 texture features from ultrasonic images of plaques. Following regression analysis using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm, the overall cohort was randomized 7:3 into the training (n = 105) and testing (n = 45) sets. In the training set, the conventional ultrasound model, the texture feature model, and the conventional ultrasound-texture feature combined model were constructed. The testing set was used to validate the model’s effectiveness by calculating the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Based on the combined model, a nomogram risk prediction model was established, and the consistency index (C-index) and the calibration curve were obtained. In the training and testing sets, the AUC of the prediction performance of the conventional ultrasonic-texture feature combined model was higher than that of the conventional ultrasonic model and the texture feature model. In the training set, the AUC of the combined model was 0.88, while in the testing set, AUC was 0.87. In addition, the C-index results were also favorable (0.89 in the training set and 0.84 in the testing set). Furthermore, the calibration curve was close to the ideal curve, indicating the accuracy of the nomogram. This study proves the performance of vascular ultrasound-based texture analysis in identifying the vulnerable carotid plaques. Texture feature extraction combined with CDU sonogram features can accurately predict the vulnerability of AP.

The relationship between Hemoglobin A1c and the maximal plaque stress of culprit ruptured plaques in patients with ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Plaque rupture occurs when the structural stress inside plaques exceeds the capacity of the overlying fibrous cap. Plaque structural stress has been acknowledged as an index to evaluate the risk of plaque rupture. However, impacting factors associated with the level of plaque structural stress in ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction patients with ruptured plaques remain unknown.

METHODS

Based on optical coherence tomography, we analyzed the plaque characteristics and calculated the maximal plaque stress of the culprit lesions in 162 patients with plaque rupture by performing finite element analysis. All enrolled patients were divided into two groups according to the level of maximal plaque stress. Cardiovascular risk factors, laboratory findings and clinical outcomes were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) was significantly higher in the high stress group than in the low stress group (7.0% ± 1.8 vs. 6.3% ± 1.2, p = 0.003). The maximal plaque stress of patients with diabetes was significantly higher than that of patients without diabetes (538.7 kPa [346.2-810.6] vs. 425.9 kPa [306.2-571.4], p = 0.006). Moreover, the level of maximal plaque stress was significantly associated with HbA1c (Pearson's correlation coefficient: r = 0.289, P < 0.001). OCT findings showed that the fibrous cap thickness and maximal lipid arc were significantly associated with maximal plaque stress (r = -0.163, p = 0.038; r = 0.194, p = 0.013, respectively).

CONCLUSION

OCT-based finite-element analysis showed that HbA1c was independently associated with the level of maximal plaque stress in STEMI patients with plaque rupture, thus indicating the importance of glucose control in patients with coronary atherosclerotic disease.

Smoking and obesity predict high-risk plaque by coronary CTA in low coronary artery calcium score (CACS)

BACKGROUND

The AHA recommends statins in patients with CACS>100 AU. However in patients with low CACS (1-99 AU), no clear statement is provided, leaving the clinician in a grey-zone. High-risk plaque (HRP) criteria by coronary CTA are novel imaging biomarkers indicating a higher a-priori cardiovascular (CV) risk, which could help for decision-making. Therefore the objective of our study was to identify which CV-risk factors predict HRP in patients with low CACS 1-99.

METHODS

1003 symptomatic patients with low-to-intermediate risk, a clinical indication for coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and who had a coronary artery calcium score (CACS) between 1 and 99 AU, were enrolled. CCTA analysis included: stenosis severity and HRP-criteria: low-attenuation plaque (LAP <30HU, <60HU and <90HU) napkin-ring-sign, spotty calcification and positive remodeling. Multivariate regression models were created for predicting HRP-criteria by the major 5 cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) (smoking, arterial hypertension, positive family history, dyslipidemia, diabetes) and obesity (BMI>25 ​kg/m²).

RESULTS

304 (33.5%) were smokers. 20.4% of smokers had HRP compared with only 14.9% of non-smokers (p ​= ​0.045). Male gender was associated with HRP (p ​< ​0.001). Smoking but not the other 5 CVRF had the most associations with HRP-criteria (LAP<60HU/≥2 criteria:OR 1.59; 95%CI:1.07-2.35), LAP<90HU (OR 1.57; 95%CI:1.01-2.43), Napkin-Ring-Sign (OR 1.78; 95%CI:1.02-3.1) and positive remodelling (OR 1.54; 95%CI:1.09-2.19). Smoking predicted fibrofatty LAP<90HU in males only. Obesity predicted LAP<60HU in both females and males.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with low CACS 1-99AU, male gender, smoking and obesity, but not the other CVRF predict HRP. These patients would rather benefit from intensification of primary CV-prevention measures such as statins.