Establishment and Verification of Synchronous Metastatic Nomogram for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GISTs): A Population-Based Analysis

Stage migration resulting from inadequate number of examined lymph nodes impacts prognosis in stage II colon cancer after radical surgery

PURPOSE

We evaluated the impact of examined lymph node (ELN) number on the prognosis of stage II colon cancer after radical surgery and developed a novel prognostic scoring system by combining primary tumor extension (pT) and ELN number for reclassification of stage II colon cancer.

METHODS

Three cohorts of patients diagnosed with colon cancer between 2004 and 2010 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship between factors and patients' survival including cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Survival curves from subgroups were plotted by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Cohort 1 and cohort 2 consisted of 13,960 and 5312 stage II colon cancer patients, respectively. Cohort 3 consisted of 4713 stage III patients. Factors including ELN, age, and pT were found to be associated with patients' survival in cohorts 1 and 2. Patients who were older or with smaller tumors were more likely to experience inadequate ELN. Patients with a higher score, as calculated by the novel scoring system, showed worse survival. Compared with stage III colon cancer patients, stage II patients with high scores had a comparable or even worse survival than stage IIIA and IIIB patients.

CONCLUSION

Inadequate ELN leads to understaging in stage II colon cancer and predicts inferior prognosis. Our analyses show that the novel prognostic scoring system, consisting of combined pT and ELN, quantified stage migration effect and can be applied to the reclassification of stage II colon cancer.

Establishment and Verification of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Patients with Small Intestinal Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop and validate nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in small intestinal gastrointestinal stromal tumors (SI GISTs).

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with SI GISTs were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and further randomly divided into training and validating cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were conducted in the training set to determine independent prognostic factors to build nomograms for predicting 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The performance of the nomograms was assessed by using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Data of a total of 776 patients with SI GISTs were retrospectively collected from the SEER database. The OS nomogram was constructed based on age, surgery, imatinib treatment, and American Joint Committee for Cancer (AJCC) stage, while the CSS nomogram incorporated age, surgery, tumor grade, and AJCC stage. In the training set, the C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.773 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.722-0.824) and for the CSS nomogram 0.806 (95% CI: 0.757-0.855). In the internal validation cohort, the C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.741, while for the CSS nomogram, it was 0.819. Well-corresponded calibration plots both in OS and CSS nomogram models were noticed. The comparisons of AUC values showed that the established nomograms exhibited superior discrimination power than the 7th Tumor-Node-Metastasis staging system.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram can effectively predict 3- and 5-year OS and CSS in patients with SI GISTs, and its use can help improve the accuracy of personalized survival prediction and facilitate to provide constructive therapeutic suggestions.