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Yang S, Fan G, Feng C, Fan Y, Xu N, Zhou H, Wang C, Liao X, He S. Novel Nomograms and Web-Based Tools Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-specific Survival of Solitary Plasmacytoma of the Spine. Spine (Phila Pa 1976) 2023; 48:1197-1207. [PMID: 37036328 DOI: 10.1097/brs.0000000000004679] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2023] [Accepted: 03/30/2023] [Indexed: 04/11/2023]
Abstract
STUDY DESIGN Retrospective analysis. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to establish nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with solitary plasmacytoma of the spine (SPS). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA SPS is a rare type of malignant spinal tumor. A systematic study of prognostic factors associated with survival can provide guidance to clinicians and patients. Consideration of other causes of death (OCOD) in CSS will improve clinical practicability. METHODS A total of 1078 patients extracted from the SEER database between 2000 and 2018 were analyzed. Patients were grouped into training and testing data sets (7:3). Factors associated with OS and CSS were identified by Cox regression and competing risk regression, respectively, for the establishment of nomograms on a training data set. The testing data set was used for the external validation of the performance of the nomograms using calibration curves, Brier's scores, C-indexes, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS Age and grade were identified as factors associated with both OS and CSS, along with marital status, radiation for OS, and chemotherapy for CSS. Heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus were found to be the 3 most common causes of OCOD. The nomograms showed satisfactory agreement on calibration plots for both training and testing data sets. Integrated Brier score, C-index, and overall area under the curve on the testing data set were 0.162/0.717/0.789 and 0.173/0.709/0.756 for OS and CSS, respectively. DCA curves showed a good clinical net benefit. Nomogram-based web tools were developed for clinical application. CONCLUSION This study provides evidence for risk factors and prognostication of survival in SPS patients. The novel nomograms and web-based tools we developed demonstrated good performance and might serve as accessory tools for clinical decision-making and SPS management. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE 3.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sheng Yang
- Department of Orthopedics, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- Spinal Pain Research Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Guoxin Fan
- Department of Pain Medicine, Huazhong University of Science and Technology Union Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China
- Guangdong Key Laboratory for Biomedical Measurements and Ultrasound Imaging, National-Regional Key Technology Engineering Laboratory for Medical Ultrasound, School of Biomedical Engineering, Shenzhen University Medical school
- Department of Spine Surgery, Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Chaobo Feng
- Department of Orthopedics, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- Spinal Pain Research Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Yunshan Fan
- Department of Orthopedics, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- Spinal Pain Research Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Ningze Xu
- Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Hongmin Zhou
- Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Chuanfeng Wang
- Department of Orthopedics, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- Spinal Pain Research Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Xiang Liao
- Department of Pain Medicine, Huazhong University of Science and Technology Union Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China
- Guangdong Key Laboratory for Biomedical Measurements and Ultrasound Imaging, National-Regional Key Technology Engineering Laboratory for Medical Ultrasound, School of Biomedical Engineering, Shenzhen University Medical school
| | - Shisheng He
- Department of Orthopedics, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- Spinal Pain Research Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
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Tong Y, Huang Z, Jiang L, Pi Y, Gong Y, Zhao D. Individualized assessment of risk and overall survival in patients newly diagnosed with primary osseous spinal neoplasms with synchronous distant metastasis. Front Public Health 2022; 10:955427. [PMID: 36072380 PMCID: PMC9441606 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.955427] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2022] [Accepted: 07/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The prognosis of patients with primary osseous spinal neoplasms (POSNs) presented with distant metastases (DMs) is still poor. This study aimed to evaluate the independent risk and prognostic factors in this population and then develop two web-based models to predict the probability of DM in patients with POSNs and the overall survival (OS) rate of patients with DM. Methods The data of patients with POSNs diagnosed between 2004 and 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate logistics regression analyses were used to study the risk factors of DM. Based on independent DM-related variables, we developed a diagnostic nomogram to estimate the risk of DM in patients with POSNs. Among all patients with POSNs, those who had synchronous DM were included in the prognostic cohort for investigating the prognostic factors by using Cox regression analysis, and then a nomogram incorporating predictors was developed to predict the OS of patients with POSNs with DM. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analysis was conducted to study the survival difference. In addition, validation of these nomograms were performed by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the area under curves (AUCs), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results A total of 1345 patients with POSNs were included in the study, of which 238 cases (17.70%) had synchronous DM at the initial diagnosis. K-M survival analysis and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that patients with DM had poorer prognosis. Grade, T stage, N stage, and histological type were found to be significantly associated with DM in patients with POSNs. Age, surgery, and histological type were identified as independent prognostic factors of patients with POSNs with DM. Subsequently, two nomograms and their online versions (https://yxyx.shinyapps.io/RiskofDMin/ and https://yxyx.shinyapps.io/SurvivalPOSNs/) were developed. The results of ROC curves, calibration curves, DCA, and K-M survival analysis together showed the excellent predictive accuracy and clinical utility of these newly proposed nomograms. Conclusion We developed two well-validated nomograms to accurately quantify the probability of DM in patients with POSNs and predict the OS rate in patients with DM, which were expected to be useful tools to facilitate individualized clinical management of these patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuexin Tong
- Department of Orthopedics, The China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Zhangheng Huang
- Department of Orthopedics, Orthopedic Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Liming Jiang
- Department of Orthopedics, The China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Yangwei Pi
- Department of Orthopedics, The China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Yan Gong
- Department of Orthopedics, The China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Dongxu Zhao
- Department of Orthopedics, The China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China,*Correspondence: Dongxu Zhao
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Lu Z, Yang C, He W, Zhou J, Xiang R. Nomogram to predict risk and prognosis of synchronous lung metastasis in renal cell carcinoma: A large cohort analysis. Medicine (Baltimore) 2022; 101:e29764. [PMID: 35801802 PMCID: PMC9259154 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000029764] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
We aimed to construct and validate nomogram models that predict the incidence of lung metastasis (LM) in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and evaluate overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) among RCC patients with LM. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was analyzed for RCC patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015. The X-tile program was used to determine the best cutoff values for age at initial diagnosis and tumor size. Logistic regression analysis was performed to explore independent risk factors for LM, and COX regression analysis was used to identify prognostic indicators for OS and CSS in lung metastatic RCC patients. Subsequently, 3 nomograms were established, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were utilized to validate their accuracy. We randomly assigned 10,929 patients with RCC to 2 groups with 1:1 allocation. Multivariate logistic analyses revealed that pathology, tumor (T) stage, nodes (N) stage, race, grade, surgery, metastatic sites, and tumor size were independent risk factors for LM. Multivariate Cox analyses showed that pathology, T stage, N stage, age, surgery, metastatic sites, and residence were independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS in patients with LM. Then, nomograms were developed based on the multivariate logistic and Cox regression analyses results. The ROC and DCA curves confirmed that these nomograms achieved satisfactory discriminative power. Three effective nomograms were constructed and validated that can be used to assist clinicians in predicting the incidence of LM and evaluating the prognosis of lung metastatic RCC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhaoxiang Lu
- Department of Urology, the Chao Hu Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
- * Correspondence: Zhaoxiang Lu, Department of Urology, the Chao Hu Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China (e-mail: )
| | - Cheng Yang
- Department of Urology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Wei He
- Department of Urology, the Chao Hu Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Jun Zhou
- Department of Urology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Rong Xiang
- School of Electronic Engineering, Chao Hu University, Chaohu, China
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Lee HW. Multidiscipline Immunotherapy-Based Rational Combinations for Robust and Durable Efficacy in Brain Metastases from Renal Cell Carcinoma. Int J Mol Sci 2021; 22:ijms22126290. [PMID: 34208157 PMCID: PMC8230742 DOI: 10.3390/ijms22126290] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2021] [Revised: 06/04/2021] [Accepted: 06/07/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Advanced imaging techniques for diagnosis have increased awareness on the benefits of brain screening, facilitated effective control of extracranial disease, and prolonged life expectancy of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) patients. Brain metastasis (BM) in patients with mRCC (RCC-BM) is associated with grave prognoses, a high degree of morbidity, dedicated assessment, and unresponsiveness to conventional systemic therapeutics. The therapeutic landscape of RCC-BM is rapidly changing; however, survival outcomes remain poor despite standard surgery and radiation, highlighting the unmet medical needs and the requisite for advancement in systemic therapies. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are one of the most promising strategies to treat RCC-BM. Understanding the role of brain-specific tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) is important for developing rationale-driven ICI-based combination strategies that circumvent tumor intrinsic and extrinsic factors and complex positive feedback loops associated with resistance to ICIs in RCC-BM via combination with ICIs involving other immunological pathways, anti-antiangiogenic multiple tyrosine kinase inhibitors, and radiotherapy; therefore, novel combination approaches are being developed for synergistic potential against RCC-BM; however, further prospective investigations with longer follow-up periods are required to improve the efficacy and safety of combination treatments and to elucidate dynamic predictive biomarkers depending on the interactions in the brain TIME.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hye-Won Lee
- Center for Urologic Cancer, National Cancer Center, Department of Urology, Goyang 10408, Korea
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Lu S, Wang Y, Liu G, Wang L, Wu P, Li Y, Cheng C. Construction and validation of nomogram to predict distant metastasis in osteosarcoma: a retrospective study. J Orthop Surg Res 2021; 16:231. [PMID: 33785046 PMCID: PMC8008682 DOI: 10.1186/s13018-021-02376-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2021] [Accepted: 03/21/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Osteosarcoma is most common malignant bone tumors. OS patients with metastasis have a poor prognosis. There are few tools to assess metastasis; we want to establish a nomogram to evaluate metastasis of osteosarcoma. Methods Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of patients with osteosarcoma were retrieved for retrospective analysis. We identify risk factors through univariate logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Based on the results of multivariate analysis, we established a nomogram to predict metastasis of patients with osteosarcoma and used the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves to test models. Results One thousand fifteen cases were obtained from the SEER database. In the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, age, primary site, grade, T stage, and surgery are risk factors. The nomogram for metastasis was constructed based on these factors. The C-index of the training and validation cohort was 0.754 and 0.716. This means that the nomogram predictions of patients with metastasis are correct, and the calibration plots also show the good prediction performance of the nomogram. Conclusion We successfully develop the nomogram which can reliably predict metastasis in different patients with osteosarcoma and it only required basic information of patients. The nomogram that we developed can help clinicians better predict the metastasis with OS and determine postoperative treatment strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shouliang Lu
- NO.1 Orthopedics Department, Cangzhou Central Hospital, Cangzhou, Hebei Province, China.
| | - Yanhua Wang
- ECG Examination Department, Cangzhou Central Hospital, Cangzhou, Hebei Province, China
| | - Guangfei Liu
- NO.1 Orthopedics Department, Cangzhou Central Hospital, Cangzhou, Hebei Province, China
| | - Lu Wang
- NO.1 Orthopedics Department, Cangzhou Central Hospital, Cangzhou, Hebei Province, China
| | - Pengfei Wu
- NO.1 Orthopedics Department, Cangzhou Central Hospital, Cangzhou, Hebei Province, China
| | - Yong Li
- NO.1 Orthopedics Department, Cangzhou Central Hospital, Cangzhou, Hebei Province, China
| | - Cai Cheng
- NO.1 Orthopedics Department, Cangzhou Central Hospital, Cangzhou, Hebei Province, China
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Hatakeyama S, Ohyama C. Editorial Comment from Dr Hatakeyama and Dr Ohyama to Clinical utility of head computed tomography scan during systemic therapy for metastatic renal cell carcinoma. Int J Urol 2021; 28:456-457. [PMID: 33525053 DOI: 10.1111/iju.14508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Shingo Hatakeyama
- Department of Advanced Blood Purification Therapy, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Hirosaki, Aomori, Japan
| | - Chikara Ohyama
- Department of Advanced Blood Purification Therapy, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Hirosaki, Aomori, Japan.,Department of Urology, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Hirosaki, Aomori, Japan
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