The Epidemic Risk of Dengue Fever in Japan: Climate Change and Seasonality

Re-emerging, under-recognized zoonotic, and neglected tropical diseases in Hawai'i

Hawai'i, the United States' most western geographic state in the Pacific, is intermediate between the North and South American continents and Indo-Pacific regions, including Japan. The Hawaiian Islands' tropical environmental conditions provide favorable ecosystems for various infectious pathogens, their vectors, and reservoirs. This creates a conducive environment for-transmission of various zoonotic diseases that affect both humans and animals. Hawai'i has experienced an increase in outbreaks of dengue, leptospirosis, and murine typhus. Further, toxoplasmosis and neuroangiostrongyliasis cases remain prevalent throughout the state, and the putative presence of autochthonous Zika cases in a retrospective study may be of national public health concern. Understanding the factors that affect the transmission and distribution of zoonoses is necessary to identify at-risk places and populations. The One Health approach seeks to understand, report, and interpret these factors and requires collaborations between private and government institutions. One Health should focus its efforts on neglected tropical diseases (NTD) and prioritize intervention development to control and prevent the transmission of diseases that spread between animals and humans. This review will focus on the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of under-recognized zoonotic and NTD affecting Hawai'i: leptospirosis, murine typhus, neuroangiostrongyliasis, toxoplasmosis, dengue, and Zika infections.

Vector Competence of a Coastal Population of Aedes aegypti for Dengue 2 and 3 Virus Serotypes in Kenya

Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of dengue, an arboviral disease caused by dengue virus (DENV) that exists as four distinct serotypes (DENV 1-4). While all four DENV serotypes circulate in Kenya, differential distribution of the serotypes in specific regions suggests virus transmission may differ among local vector populations. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that a coastal Ae. aegypti population (Rabai, Kilifi County) varies in its ability to transmit DENV-2 (predominant) and DENV-3 (less dominant) and that transmission is related to Ae. aegypti subspecies—domestic Ae. aegypti aegypti (Aaa) and sylvtic Ae. aegypti formosus (Aaf). We orally exposed F1 females (3-10 days old) to blood meals containing DENV-2 (10 5.30 pfu/ml) or DENV-3 (10 5.13 pfu/ml), tested them individually for infection (body), dissemination (legs), and transmission (saliva) at 7, 14, and 21 days postinfection (DPI), respectively, and compared the rates between the serotypes. We analyzed cytochrome c oxidase I gene (cox-I) sequences among DENV-susceptible and nonsusceptible cohorts. Of 489 mosquitoes tested (DENV-2: 240; DENV-3: 249), we found consistently higher but nonsignificant rates of infection (16% vs. 10%), dissemination (47% (18/38) vs. 35% (9/26)), and transmission (39% (7/18) vs. 11% (1/9)) for DENV-2 than DENV-3. However, DENV-2 exhibited a shorter extrinsic incubation period (EIP) for disseminated infection (7-DPI vs. 14-DPI) and transmission (14-DPI vs. 21-DPI) compared to DENV-3. Two cox-I lineages were recovered in phylogeny, one predominantly clustered with referenced Aaa and a minor lineage grouped with Aaf. Infected mosquitoes and those with disseminated infection were represented in both lineages; those that transmitted the viruses grouped with the Aaa-associated lineage only. We conclude that the coastal Ae. aegypti population is a competent vector for DENV-2 and DENV-3 likely driven by the domestic Aaa that is predominant. The shorter EIP to attain dissemination and transmission for DENV-2 could favour its transmission over DENV-3.

Quantifying the future risk of dengue under climate change in Japan

Background

In metropolitan Tokyo in 2014, Japan experienced its first domestic dengue outbreak since 1945. The objective of the present study was to quantitatively assess the future risk of dengue in Japan using climate change scenarios in a high-resolution geospatial environment by building on a solid theory as a baseline in consideration of future adaptation strategies.

Methods

Using climate change scenarios of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6 (MIROC6), representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, we computed the daily average temperature and embedded this in the effective reproduction number of dengue, R(T), to calculate the extinction probability and interepidemic period across Japan.

Results

In June and October, the R(T) with daily average temperature T, was <1 as in 2022; however, an elevation in temperature increased the number of days with R(T) >1 during these months under RCP8.5. The time period with a risk of dengue transmission gradually extended to late spring (April–May) and autumn (October–November). Under the RCP8.5 scenario in 2100, the possibility of no dengue-free months was revealed in part of southernmost Okinawa Prefecture, and the epidemic risk extended to the entire part of northernmost Hokkaido Prefecture.

Conclusion

Each locality in Japan must formulate action plans in response to the presented scenarios. Our geographic analysis can help local governments to develop adaptation policies that include mosquito breeding site elimination, distribution of adulticides and larvicides, and elevated situation awareness to prevent transmission via bites from Aedes vectors.