A Metabolism-Based Interpretable Machine Learning Prediction Model for Diabetic Retinopathy Risk: A Cross-Sectional Study in Chinese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Exploring the relationship between heavy metals and diabetic retinopathy: a machine learning modeling approach

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is one of the leading causes of adult blindness in the United States. Although studies applying traditional statistical methods have revealed that heavy metals may be essential environmental risk factors for diabetic retinopathy, there is a lack of analyses based on machine learning (ML) methods to adequately explain the complex relationship between heavy metals and DR and the interactions between variables. Based on characteristic variables of participants with and without DR and heavy metal exposure data obtained from the NHANES database (2003-2010), a ML model was developed for effective prediction of DR. The best predictive model for DR was selected from 11 models by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis. Further permutation feature importance (PFI) analysis, partial dependence plots (PDP) analysis, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis were used to assess the model capability and key influencing factors. A total of 1042 eligible individuals were randomly assigned to two groups for training and testing set of the prediction model. ROC analysis showed that the k-nearest neighbour (KNN) model had the highest prediction performance, achieving close to 100% accuracy in the testing set. Urinary Sb level was identified as the critical heavy metal affecting the predicted risk of DR, with a contribution weight of 1.730632 ± 1.791722, which was much higher than that of other heavy metals and baseline variables. The results of the PDP analysis and the SHAP analysis also indicated that antimony (Sb) had a more significant effect on DR. The interaction between age and Sb was more significant compared to other variables and metal pairs. We found that Sb could serve as a potential predictor of DR and that Sb may influence the development of DR by mediating cellular and systemic senescence. The study revealed that monitoring urinary Sb levels can be useful for early non-invasive screening and intervention in DR development, and also highlighted the important role of constructed ML models in explaining the effects of heavy metal exposure on DR.

Causal relationships between blood metabolites and diabetic retinopathy: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study

Background

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a microvascular complication of diabetes, severely affecting patients' vision and even leading to blindness. The development of DR is influenced by metabolic disturbance and genetic factors, including gene polymorphisms. The research aimed to uncover the causal relationships between blood metabolites and DR.

Methods

The two-sample mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was employed to estimate the causality of blood metabolites on DR. The genetic variables for exposure were obtained from the genome-wide association study (GWAS) dataset of 486 blood metabolites, while the genetic predictors for outcomes including all-stage DR (All DR), non-proliferative DR (NPDR) and proliferative DR (PDR) were derived from the FinnGen database. The primary analysis employed inverse variance weighted (IVW) method, and supplementary analyses were performed using MR-Egger, weighted median (WM), simple mode and weighted mode methods. Additionally, MR-Egger intercept test, Cochran's Q test, and leave-one-out analysis were also conducted to guarantee the accuracy and robustness of the results. Subsequently, we replicated the MR analysis using three additional datasets from the FinnGen database and conducted a meta-analysis to determine blood metabolites associated with DR. Finally, reverse MR analysis and metabolic pathway analysis were performed.

Results

The study identified 13 blood metabolites associated with All DR, 9 blood metabolites associated with NPDR and 12 blood metabolites associated with PDR. In summary, a total of 21 blood metabolites were identified as having potential causal relationships with DR. Additionally, we identified 4 metabolic pathways that are related to DR.

Conclusion

The research revealed a number of blood metabolites and metabolic pathways that are causally associated with DR, which holds significant importance for screening and prevention of DR. However, it is noteworthy that these causal relationships should be validated in larger cohorts and experiments.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Paves the Way in Precision Diagnostics and Biomarker Discovery for the Subclass of Diabetic Retinopathy in Type 2 Diabetics

Diabetic retinopathy (DR), a common ocular microvascular complication of diabetes, contributes significantly to diabetes-related vision loss. This study addresses the imperative need for early diagnosis of DR and precise treatment strategies based on the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework. The study integrated clinical, biochemical, and metabolomic biomarkers associated with the following classes: non-DR (NDR), non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR), and proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. To create machine learning (ML) models, 10% of the data was divided into validation sets and 90% into discovery sets. The validation dataset was used for hyperparameter optimization and feature selection stages, while the discovery dataset was used to measure the performance of the models. A 10-fold cross-validation technique was used to evaluate the performance of ML models. Biomarker discovery was performed using minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), Boruta, and explainable boosting machine (EBM). The predictive proposed framework compares the results of eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), natural gradient boosting for probabilistic prediction (NGBoost), and EBM models in determining the DR subclass. The hyperparameters of the models were optimized using Bayesian optimization. Combining EBM feature selection with XGBoost, the optimal model achieved (91.25 ± 1.88) % accuracy, (89.33 ± 1.80) % precision, (91.24 ± 1.67) % recall, (89.37 ± 1.52) % F1-Score, and (97.00 ± 0.25) % the area under the ROC curve (AUROC). According to the EBM explanation, the six most important biomarkers in determining the course of DR were tryptophan (Trp), phosphatidylcholine diacyl C42:2 (PC.aa.C42.2), butyrylcarnitine (C4), tyrosine (Tyr), hexadecanoyl carnitine (C16) and total dimethylarginine (DMA). The identified biomarkers may provide a better understanding of the progression of DR, paving the way for more precise and cost-effective diagnostic and treatment strategies.