HIV Late Presenters in Asia: Management and Public Health Challenges

New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model

BACKGROUND

In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China.

METHODS

A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435-10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027-11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337-13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165-8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524-5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239-0.894).

CONCLUSIONS

Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population.

Changing Mortality and Patterns of Death Causes in HIV Infected Patients - China, 2013-2022

What is already known about this topic?

The advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has markedly decreased mortality rates among patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Globally, there has been a 43% reduction in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths from 2010 to 2022. Additionally, prior research indicates that the initiation of ART at an early stage within China has substantially lowered mortality rates.

What is added by this report?

Over the previous decade, following the implementation of China's universal ART access strategy, the patterns of mortality causes among HIV-infected individuals across the country have undergone significant alterations. In 2022, the all-cause mortality rate among this population was reported at 2.7%, with the non-AIDS-related mortality rate at 1.8%. However, it is important to consider that the accuracy of death reporting could contribute to potential misclassification of the underlying causes of death.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Efforts to enhance health outcomes should persist in emphasizing the advancement of ART strategies, with a particular focus on mitigating non-AIDS-related mortality in the future.