Yu SH, Li DS, Ilyar•Sheyhidin, Yidilisi•Awuti, Abuduaini•Tuerhong, Julaiti•Anniwaer, Zhang LW. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of risk factors for complications after esophagectomy for esophageal cancer and establishment of a discriminant model.
Shijie Huaren Xiaohua Zazhi 2011;
19:3508-3513. [DOI:
10.11569/wcjd.v19.i34.3508]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
AIM: To investigate the main risk factors for complications after esophagectomy for esophageal cancer and to establish a logistic regression model to predict these complications.
METHODS: The clinical data for patients with esophageal cancer patients (n = 1197) who underwent esophagectomy between January 1997 and December 2010 were analyzed retrospectively. Logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the risk factors for postoperative complications in these patients.
RESULTS: Postoperative severe complications were associated with age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes mellitus, heart diseases, surgeon volume, position of the anastomotic stoma, operative time, blood loss, invasion to the adjacent organ, and TNM stage III. The logistic regression equation was P = 1/[1+e(18.629-0.223X1-2.418X2-0.885X3-1.760X4-1.549X5-0.779X6-0.939X7-1.072X8-1.195X9-0.916X10)]. The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the logistic model for discriminating testing samples were 74.0%, 67.9% and 81.8%, respectively.
CONCLUSION: Age, COPD, diabetes mellitus, heart diseases, surgeon volume, position of the anastomotic stoma, operative time, blood loss, invasion to the adjacent organ, TNM stage III are independent risk factors for complications after esophagectomy for esophageal cancer. The logistic regression model established based on these factors is reliable in predicting these complications.
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