Endoscopic requirements of colorectal cancer screening programs in average-risk population. Estimation according to a Markov model

Simulation modeling validity and utility in colorectal cancer screening delivery: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

This study sought to assess the impact and validity of simulation modeling in informing decision making in a complex area of healthcare delivery: colorectal cancer (CRC) screening.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched 10 electronic databases for English-language articles published between January 1, 2008, and March 1, 2019, that described the development of a simulation model with a focus on average-risk CRC screening delivery. Included articles were reviewed for evidence that the model was validated, and provided real or potential contribution to informed decision making using the GRADE EtD (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Evidence to Decision) framework.

RESULTS

A total of 43 studies met criteria. The majority used Markov modeling (n = 31 [72%]) and sought to determine cost-effectiveness, compare screening modalities, or assess effectiveness of screening. No study reported full model validation and only (58%) reported conducting any validation. Majority of models were developed to address a specific health systems or policy question; few articles report the model's impact on this decision (n = 39 [91%] vs. n = 5 [12%]). Overall, models provided evidence relevant to every element important to decision makers as outlined in the GRADE EtD framework.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Simulation modeling contributes evidence that is considered valuable to decision making in CRC screening delivery, particularly in assessing cost-effectiveness and comparing screening modalities. However, the actual impact on decisions and validity of models is lacking in the literature. Greater validity testing, impact assessment, and standardized reporting of both is needed to understand and demonstrate the reliability and utility of simulation modeling.

Long-Term Prediction of the Demand of Colonoscopies Generated by a Population-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the long-term need for colonoscopies after a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and post-polypectomy surveillance in the context of a population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program.

METHODS

A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the process of CRC screening and post-polypectomy surveillance following European guidelines in a population of 100,000 men and women aged 50-69 years over a 20-year period. Screening consisted of biennial FIT and colonoscopy in participants with positive results. The model was mainly fed using data from the first and second rounds of a Spanish program (2010-2013). Data on post-polypectomy surveillance results were obtained from the literature. A probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed on the effect of participation, FIT positivity, and adherence to surveillance colonoscopies. The main outcome variables were the number of colonoscopies after a positive FIT, surveillance colonoscopies, and the overall number of colonoscopies.

RESULTS

An average yearly number of 1,200 colonoscopies after a positive FIT were predicted per 100,000 inhabitants with a slight increase to 1,400 at the end of the 20-year period. Surveillance colonoscopies increased to an average of 1,000 per 100,000 inhabitants in the long-term, showing certain stabilization in the last years of the 20-year simulation horizon. The results were highly sensitive to FIT positivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing a population-based CRC screening program will increase the demand for colonoscopies, which is expected to double in 20 years, mainly due to an increase in surveillance colonoscopies.

Colorectal cancer screening in the familial risk population: Is colonoscopy still the strategy of choice?

First-degree relatives of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) are at high risk of this disease. For this reason, medical organizations and clinical guidelines recommend more intensive screening and surveillance for such first-degree relatives than for the average-risk population. Colonoscopy has been the cornerstone of CRC screening in this setting. Although colonoscopy is the most sensitive technique for the detection of neoplastic lesions (especially non-advanced adenomas), its role is less clear for CRC. In addition, screening colonoscopy has several limitations that may affect the success of a screening campaign, such as poor participant acceptance, the need for skilled endoscopists, participant access to screening colonoscopy, overburdened endoscopy units, potential complications, and procedure-related costs. In addition, recent evidence has cast doubt on the advantage of colonoscopy over other strategies for the detection of advanced neoplastic lesions. Despite being less sensitive in general, other screening methods frequently recommended in the average-risk population may be more acceptable and thus help increase CRC screening uptake. This review discusses recent evidence on the risk of CRC in first-degree relatives, the advantages and disadvantages of each screening technique, participation rates depending on the technique, patient preferences, and barriers to screening.

Derivation and Validation of a Scoring System to Stratify Risk for Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in Asymptomatic Adults: A Cross-sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Several methods are recommended equally strongly for colorectal cancer screening in average-risk persons. Risk stratification would enable tailoring of screening within this group, with less invasive tests (sigmoidoscopy or occult blood tests) for lower-risk persons and colonoscopy for higher-risk persons.

OBJECTIVE

To create a risk index for advanced neoplasia (colorectal cancer and adenomas or serrated polyps ≥1.0 cm, villous histology, or high-grade dysplasia) anywhere in the colorectum, using the most common risk factors for colorectal neoplasia.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Multiple endoscopy units, primarily in the Midwest.

PATIENTS

Persons aged 50 to 80 years undergoing initial screening colonoscopy (December 2004 to September 2011).

MEASUREMENTS

Derivation and validation of a risk index based on points from regression coefficients for age, sex, waist circumference, cigarette smoking, and family history of colorectal cancer.

RESULTS

Among 2993 persons in the derivation set, prevalence of advanced neoplasia was 9.4%. Risks for advanced neoplasia in persons at very low, low, intermediate, and high risk were 1.92% (95% CI, 0.63% to 4.43%), 4.88% (CI, 3.79% to 6.18%), 9.93% (CI, 8.09% to 12.0%), and 24.9% (CI, 21.1% to 29.1%), respectively (P < 0.001). Sigmoidoscopy to the descending colon in the low-risk groups would have detected 51 of 70 (73% [CI, 61% to 83%]) advanced neoplasms. Among 1467 persons in the validation set, corresponding risks for advanced neoplasia were 1.65% (CI, 0.20% to 5.84%), 3.31% (CI, 2.08% to 4.97%), 10.9% (CI, 8.26% to 14.1%), and 22.3% (CI, 16.9% to 28.5%), respectively (P < 0.001). Sigmoidoscopy would have detected 21 of 24 (87.5% [CI, 68% to 97%]) advanced neoplasms.

LIMITATIONS

Split-sample validation; results apply to first-time screening.

CONCLUSION

This index stratifies risk for advanced neoplasia among average-risk persons by identifying lower-risk groups for which noncolonoscopy strategies may be effective and efficient and a higher-risk group for which colonoscopy may be preferred.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Cancer Institute, Walther Cancer Institute, Indiana University Simon Cancer Center, and Indiana Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute.

[The Alliance for the Prevention of Colorectal Cancer in Spain. A civil commitment to society]

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the most common malignant tumor in Spain, when men and women are considered together, and the second leading cause of cancer death. Every week in Spain over 500 cases of CRC are diagnosed, and nearly 260 people die from the disease. Epidemiologic estimations for the coming years show a significant increase in the number of annual cases. CRC is a perfectly preventable tumor and can be cured in 90% of cases if detected in the early stages. Population-based screening programs have been shown to reduce the incidence of CRC and mortality from the disease. Unless early detection programs are established in Spain, it is estimated that in the coming years, 1 out of 20 men and 1 out of 30 women will develop CRC before the age of 75. The Alliance for the Prevention of Colorectal Cancer in Spain is an independent and non-profit organization created in 2008 that integrates patients' associations, altruistic non-governmental organizations and scientific societies. Its main objective is to raise awareness and disseminate information on the social and healthcare importance of CRC in Spain and to promote screening measures, early detection and prevention programs. Health professionals, scientific societies, healthcare institutions and civil society should be sensitized to this highly important health problem that requires the participation of all sectors of society. The early detection of CRC is an issue that affects the whole of society and therefore it is imperative for all sectors to work together.

Anticipating implementation of colorectal cancer screening in The Netherlands: a nation wide survey on endoscopic supply and demand

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening requires sufficient endoscopic resources. The present study aims to determine the Dutch endoscopic production and manpower for 2009, evaluate trends since 2004, determine additional workload which would be caused by implementation of a CRC screening program, and inventory colonoscopy rates performed in other European countries.

METHODS

All Dutch endoscopy units (N = 101) were surveyed for manpower and the numbers of endoscopy procedures performed in 2009. Based on calculations in the report issued by the Dutch Health Council, future additional workload caused by faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening was estimated. The number of colonoscopies performed in Europe was evaluated by a literature search and an email-inquiry.

RESULTS

Compared to 2004, there was a 24% increase in total endoscopies (N = 505,226 in 2009), and a 64% increase in colonoscopies (N = 191,339 in 2009) in The Netherlands. The number of endoscopists had increased by 4.6% (N = 583 in 2009). Five years after stepwise implementation of FIT-based CRC screening, endoscopic capacity needs to be increased an additional 15%. A lack of published data on the number of endoscopies performed in Europe was found. Based on our email-inquiry, the number of colonoscopies per 100,000 inhabitants ranged from 126 to 3,031 in 15 European countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the last years, endoscopic procedures increased markedly in The Netherlands without a corresponding increase in manpower. A FIT-based CRC screening program requires an estimated additional 15% increase in endoscopic procedures. It is very likely that current colonoscopy density varies widely across European countries.

Fecal occult blood testing when colonoscopy capacity is limited

BACKGROUND

Fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) can be adapted to a limited colonoscopy capacity by narrowing the age range or extending the screening interval, by using a more specific test or hemoglobin cutoff level for referral to colonoscopy, and by restricting surveillance colonoscopy. Which of these options is most clinically effective and cost-effective has yet to be established.

METHODS

We used the validated MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate the number of colonoscopies, costs, and health effects of different screening strategies using guaiac FOBT or fecal immunochemical test (FIT) at various hemoglobin cutoff levels between 50 and 200 ng hemoglobin per mL, different surveillance strategies, and various age ranges. We optimized the allocation of a limited number of colonoscopies on the basis of incremental cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

When colonoscopy capacity was unlimited, the optimal screening strategy was to administer an annual FIT with a 50 ng/mL hemoglobin cutoff level in individuals aged 45-80 years and to offer colonoscopy surveillance to all individuals with adenomas. When colonoscopy capacity was decreasing, the optimal screening adaptation was to first increase the FIT hemoglobin cutoff value to 200 ng hemoglobin per mL and narrow the age range to 50-75 years, to restrict colonoscopy surveillance, and finally to further decrease the number of screening rounds. FIT screening was always more cost-effective compared with guaiac FOBT. Doubling colonoscopy capacity increased the benefits of FIT screening up to 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

FIT should be used at higher hemoglobin cutoff levels when colonoscopy capacity is limited compared with unlimited and is more effective in terms of health outcomes and cost compared with guaiac FOBT at all colonoscopy capacity levels. Increasing the colonoscopy capacity substantially increases the health benefits of FIT screening.

Modeling screening, prevention, and delaying of Alzheimer's disease: an early-stage decision analytic model

Background

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) affects a growing proportion of the population each year. Novel therapies on the horizon may slow the progress of AD symptoms and avoid cases altogether. Initiating treatment for the underlying pathology of AD would ideally be based on biomarker screening tools identifying pre-symptomatic individuals. Early-stage modeling provides estimates of potential outcomes and informs policy development.

Methods

A time-to-event (TTE) simulation provided estimates of screening asymptomatic patients in the general population age ≥55 and treatment impact on the number of patients reaching AD. Patients were followed from AD screen until all-cause death. Baseline sensitivity and specificity were 0.87 and 0.78, with treatment on positive screen. Treatment slowed progression by 50%. Events were scheduled using literature-based age-dependent incidences of AD and death.

Results

The base case results indicated increased AD free years (AD-FYs) through delays in onset and a reduction of 20 AD cases per 1000 screened individuals. Patients completely avoiding AD accounted for 61% of the incremental AD-FYs gained. Total years of treatment per 1000 screened patients was 2,611. The number-needed-to-screen was 51 and the number-needed-to-treat was 12 to avoid one case of AD. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that duration of screening sensitivity and rescreen interval impact AD-FYs the most. A two-way sensitivity analysis found that for a test with an extended duration of sensitivity (15 years) the number of AD cases avoided was 6,000-7,000 cases for a test with higher sensitivity and specificity (0.90,0.90).

Conclusions

This study yielded valuable parameter range estimates at an early stage in the study of screening for AD. Analysis identified duration of screening sensitivity as a key variable that may be unavailable from clinical trials.

Multi-state Markov models in cancer screening evaluation: a brief review and case study

This work presents a brief overview of Markov models in cancer screening evaluation and focuses on two specific models. A three-state model was first proposed to estimate jointly the sensitivity of the screening procedure and the average duration in the preclinical phase, i.e. the period when the cancer is asymptomatic but detectable by screening. A five-state model, incorporating lymph node involvement as a prognostic factor, was later proposed combined with a survival analysis to predict the mortality reduction associated with screening. The strengths and limitations of these two models are illustrated using data from French breast cancer service screening programmes. The three-state model is a useful frame but parameter estimates should be interpreted with caution. They are highly correlated and depend heavily on the parametric assumptions of the model. Our results pointed out a serious limitation to the five-state model, due to implicit assumptions which are not always verified. Although it may still be useful, there is a need for more flexible models. Over-diagnosis is an important issue for both models and induces bias in parameter estimates. It can be addressed by adding a non-progressive state, but this may provide an uncertain estimation of over-diagnosis. When the primary goal is to avoid bias, rather than to estimate over-diagnosis, it may be more appropriate to correct for over-diagnosis assuming different levels in a sensitivity analysis. This would be particularly relevant in a perspective of mortality reduction estimation.