Estimating TP53 Mutation Carrier Probability in Families with Li-Fraumeni Syndrome Using LFSPRO

Validating Risk Prediction Models for Multiple Primaries and Competing Cancer Outcomes in Families With Li-Fraumeni Syndrome Using Clinically Ascertained Data

PURPOSE

There exists a barrier between developing and disseminating risk prediction models in clinical settings. We hypothesize that this barrier may be lifted by demonstrating the utility of these models using incomplete data that are collected in real clinical sessions, as compared with the commonly used research cohorts that are meticulously collected.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Genetic counselors (GCs) collect family history when patients (ie, probands) come to MD Anderson Cancer Center for risk assessment of Li-Fraumeni syndrome, a genetic disorder characterized by deleterious germline mutations in the TP53 gene. Our clinical counseling-based (CCB) cohort consists of 3,297 individuals across 124 families (522 cases of single primary cancer and 125 cases of multiple primary cancers). We applied our software suite LFSPRO to make risk predictions and assessed performance in discrimination using AUC and in calibration using observed/expected (O/E) ratio.

RESULTS

For prediction of deleterious TP53 mutations, we achieved an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.85) and an O/E ratio of 1.66 (95% CI, 1.53 to 1.80). Using the LFSPRO.MPC model to predict the onset of the second cancer, we obtained an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.58 to 0.82). Using the LFSPRO.CS model to predict the onset of different cancer types as the first primary, we achieved AUCs between 0.70 and 0.83 for sarcoma, breast cancer, or other cancers combined.

CONCLUSION

We describe a study that fills in the critical gap in knowledge for the utility of risk prediction models. Using a CCB cohort, our previously validated models have demonstrated good performance and outperformed the standard clinical criteria. Our study suggests that better risk counseling may be achieved by GCs using these already-developed mathematical models.

LFSPROShiny: An Interactive R/Shiny App for Prediction and Visualization of Cancer Risks in Families With Deleterious Germline TP53 Mutations

PURPOSE

LFSPRO is an R library that implements risk prediction models for Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS), a genetic disorder characterized by deleterious germline mutations in the TP53 gene. To facilitate the use of these models in clinics, we developed LFSPROShiny, an interactive R/Shiny interface of LFSPRO that allows genetic counselors (GCs) to perform risk predictions without any programming components and further visualize the risk profiles of their patients to aid the decision-making process.

METHODS

LFSPROShiny implements two models that have been validated on multiple LFS patient cohorts: a competing risk model that predicts cancer-specific risks for the first primary and a recurrent-event model that predicts the risk of a second primary tumor. Starting with a visualization template, we keep regular contact with GCs, who ran LFSPROShiny in their counseling sessions, to collect feedback and discuss potential improvement. On receiving the family history as input, LFSPROShiny renders the family into a pedigree and displays the risk estimates of the family members in a tabular format. The software offers interactive overlaid side-by-side bar charts for visualization of the patients' cancer risks relative to the general population.

RESULTS

We walk through a detailed example to illustrate how GCs can run LFSPROShiny in clinics from data preparation to downstream analyses and interpretation of results with an emphasis on the utilities that LFSPROShiny provides to aid decision making.

CONCLUSION

Since December 2021, we have applied LFSPROShiny to over 100 families from counseling sessions at the MD Anderson Cancer Center. Our study suggests that software tools with easy-to-use interfaces are crucial for the dissemination of risk prediction models in clinical settings, hence serving as a guideline for future development of similar models.

Validating risk prediction models for multiple primaries and competing cancer outcomes in families with Li-Fraumeni syndrome using clinically ascertained data at a single institute

Purpose

There exists a barrier between developing and disseminating risk prediction models in clinical settings. We hypothesize this barrier may be lifted by demonstrating the utility of these models using incomplete data that are collected in real clinical sessions, as compared to the commonly used research cohorts that are meticulously collected.

Patients and methods

Genetic counselors (GCs) collect family history when patients (i.e., probands) come to MD Anderson Cancer Center for risk assessment of Li-Fraumeni syndrome, a genetic disorder characterized by deleterious germline mutations in the TP53 gene. Our clinical counseling-based (CCB) cohort consists of 3,297 individuals across 124 families (522 cases of single primary cancer and 125 cases of multiple primary cancers). We applied our software suite LFSPRO to make risk predictions and assessed performance in discrimination using area under the curve (AUC), and in calibration using observed/expected (O/E) ratio.

Results

For prediction of deleterious TP53 mutations, we achieved an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.70 - 0.91) and an O/E ratio of 0.96 (95% CI, 0.70 - 1.21). Using the LFSPRO.MPC model to predict the onset of the second cancer, we obtained an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.58 - 0.82). Using the LFSPRO.CS model to predict the onset of different cancer types as the first primary, we achieved AUCs between 0.70 and 0.83 for sarcoma, breast cancer, or other cancers combined.

Conclusion

We describe a study that fills in the critical gap in knowledge for the utility of risk prediction models. Using a CCB cohort, our previously validated models have demonstrated good performance and outperformed the standard clinical criteria. Our study suggests better risk counseling may be achieved by GCs using these already-developed mathematical models.

LFSPROShiny: an interactive R/Shiny app for prediction and visualization of cancer risks in families with deleterious germline TP53 mutations

Purpose

LFSPRO is an R library that implements risk prediction models for Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS), a genetic disorder characterized by deleterious germline mutations in the TP53 gene. To facilitate the use of these models in clinics, we developed LFSPROShiny, an interactive R/Shiny interface of LFSPRO that allows genetic counselors (GCs) to perform risk predictions without any programming components, and further visualize the risk profiles of their patients to aid the decision-making process.

Methods

LFSPROShiny implements two models that have been validated on multiple LFS patient cohorts: a competing-risk model that predicts cancer-specific risks for the first primary, and a recurrent-event model that predicts the risk of a second primary tumor. Starting with a visualization template, we keep regular contact with GCs, who ran LFSPROShiny in their counseling sessions, to collect feedback and discuss potential improvement. Upon receiving the family history as input, LFSPROShiny renders the family into a pedigree, and displays the risk estimates of the family members in a tabular format. The software offers interactive overlaid side-by-side bar charts for visualization of the patients' cancer risks relative to the general population.

Results

We walk through a detailed example to illustrate how GCs can run LFSPROShiny in clinics, from data preparation to downstream analyses and interpretation of results with an emphasis on the utilities that LFSPROShiny provides to aid decision making.

Conclusion

Since Dec 2021, we have applied LFSPROShiny to over 100 families from counseling sessions at MD Anderson Cancer Center. Our study suggests that software tools with easy-to-use interfaces are crucial for the dissemination of risk prediction models in clinical settings, hence serving as a guideline for future development of similar models.

A novel germline mutation of TP53 with breast cancer diagnosed as Li-Fraumeni syndrome

TP53 is a tumor suppressor gene and, when dysfunctional, it is known to be involved in the development of cancers. Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is a hereditary tumor with autosomal dominant inheritance that develops in people with germline pathogenic variants of TP53. LFS frequently develops in parallel to tumors, including breast cancer. We describe a novel germline mutation in TP53 identified by performing a multi-gene panel assay in a breast cancer patient with bilateral breast cancer.

Bayesian estimation of a semiparametric recurrent event model with applications to the penetrance estimation of multiple primary cancers in Li-Fraumeni syndrome

A common phenomenon in cancer syndromes is for an individual to have multiple primary cancers (MPC) at different sites during his/her lifetime. Patients with Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS), a rare pediatric cancer syndrome mainly caused by germline TP53 mutations, are known to have a higher probability of developing a second primary cancer than those with other cancer syndromes. In this context, it is desirable to model the development of MPC to enable better clinical management of LFS. Here, we propose a Bayesian recurrent event model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process in order to obtain penetrance estimates for MPC related to LFS. We employed a familywise likelihood that facilitates using genetic information inherited through the family pedigree and properly adjusted for the ascertainment bias that was inevitable in studies of rare diseases by using an inverse probability weighting scheme. We applied the proposed method to data on LFS, using a family cohort collected through pediatric sarcoma patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center from 1944 to 1982. Both internal and external validation studies showed that the proposed model provides reliable penetrance estimates for MPC in LFS, which, to the best of our knowledge, have not been reported in the LFS literature.

Identification and functional characterization of new missense SNPs in the coding region of the TP53 gene

Infrequent and rare genetic variants in the human population vastly outnumber common ones. Although they may contribute significantly to the genetic basis of a disease, these seldom-encountered variants may also be miss-identified as pathogenic if no correct references are available. Somatic and germline TP53 variants are associated with multiple neoplastic diseases, and thus have come to serve as a paradigm for genetic analyses in this setting. We searched 14 independent, globally distributed datasets and recovered TP53 SNPs from 202,767 cancer-free individuals. In our analyses, 19 new missense TP53 SNPs, including five novel variants specific to the Asian population, were recurrently identified in multiple datasets. Using a combination of in silico, functional, structural, and genetic approaches, we showed that none of these variants displayed loss of function compared to the normal TP53 gene. In addition, classification using ACMG criteria suggested that they are all benign. Considered together, our data reveal that the TP53 coding region shows far more polymorphism than previously thought and present high ethnic diversity. They furthermore underline the importance of correctly assessing novel variants in all variant-calling pipelines associated with genetic diagnoses for cancer.

A pedigree-based prediction model identifies carriers of deleterious de novo mutations in families with Li-Fraumeni syndrome

De novo mutations (DNMs) are increasingly recognized as rare disease causal factors. Identifying DNM carriers will allow researchers to study the likely distinct molecular mechanisms of DNMs. We developed Famdenovo to predict DNM status (DNM or familial mutation [FM]) of deleterious autosomal dominant germline mutations for any syndrome. We introduce Famdenovo.TP53 for Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) and analyze 324 LFS family pedigrees from four US cohorts: a validation set of 186 pedigrees and a discovery set of 138 pedigrees. The concordance index for Famdenovo.TP53 prediction was 0.95 (95% CI: [0.92, 0.98]). Forty individuals (95% CI: [30, 50]) were predicted as DNM carriers, increasing the total number from 42 to 82. We compared clinical and biological features of FM versus DNM carriers: (1) cancer and mutation spectra along with parental ages were similarly distributed; (2) ascertainment criteria like early-onset breast cancer (age 20-35 yr) provides a condition for an unbiased estimate of the DNM rate: 48% (23 DNMs vs. 25 FMs); and (3) hotspot mutation R248W was not observed in DNMs, although it was as prevalent as hotspot mutation R248Q in FMs. Furthermore, we introduce Famdenovo.BRCA for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome and apply it to a small set of family data from the Cancer Genetics Network. In summary, we introduce a novel statistical approach to systematically evaluate deleterious DNMs in inherited cancer syndromes. Our approach may serve as a foundation for future studies evaluating how new deleterious mutations can be established in the germline, such as those in TP53.

Penetrance of Different Cancer Types in Families with Li-Fraumeni Syndrome: A Validation Study Using Multicenter Cohorts

Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is a rare hereditary cancer syndrome associated with an autosomal-dominant mutation inheritance in the TP53 tumor suppressor gene and a wide spectrum of cancer diagnoses. The previously developed R package, LFSPRO, is capable of estimating the risk of an individual being a TP53 mutation carrier. However, an accurate estimation of the penetrance of different cancer types in LFS is crucial to improve the clinical characterization and management of high-risk individuals. Here, we developed a competing risk-based statistical model that incorporates the pedigree structure efficiently into the penetrance estimation and corrects for ascertainment bias while also increasing the effective sample size of this rare population. This enabled successful estimation of TP53 penetrance for three LFS cancer types: breast (BR), sarcoma (SA), and others (OT), from 186 pediatric sarcoma families collected at MD Anderson Cancer Center (Houston, TX). Penetrance validation was performed on a combined dataset of two clinically ascertained family cohorts with cancer to overcome internal bias in each (total number of families = 668). The age-dependent onset probability distributions of specific cancer types were different. For breast cancer, the TP53 penetrance went up at an earlier age than the reported BRCA1/2 penetrance. The prediction performance of the penetrance estimates was validated by the combined independent cohorts (BR = 85, SA = 540, and OT = 158). Area under the ROC curves (AUC) were 0.92 (BR), 0.75 (SA), and 0.81 (OT). The new penetrance estimates have been incorporated into the current LFSPRO R package to provide risk estimates for the diagnosis of breast cancer, sarcoma, or other cancers. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings provide specific penetrance estimates for LFS-associated cancers, which will likely impact the management of families at high risk of LFS.See related article by Shin et al., p. 347.

Penetrance Estimates Over Time to First and Second Primary Cancer Diagnosis in Families with Li-Fraumeni Syndrome: A Single Institution Perspective

Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is a rare autosomal dominant disorder associated with TP53 germline mutations and an increased lifetime risk of multiple primary cancers (MPC). Penetrance estimation of time to first and second primary cancer within LFS remains challenging because of limited data and the difficulty of characterizing the effects of a primary cancer on the penetrance of a second primary cancer. Using a recurrent events survival modeling approach that incorporates a family-wise likelihood to efficiently integrate the pedigree structure, we estimated the penetrance for both first and second primary cancer diagnosis from a pediatric sarcoma cohort at MD Anderson Cancer Center [MDACC, Houston, TX; number of families = 189; single primary cancer (SPC) = 771; and MPC = 87]. Validation of the risk prediction performance was performed using an independent MDACC clinical cohort of TP53 tested individuals (SPC = 102 and MPC = 58). These findings showed that an individual diagnosed at a later age was more likely to be diagnosed with a second primary cancer. In addition, TP53 mutation carriers had a HR of 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.5) for developing a second primary cancer versus SPC. The area under the ROC (AUC) curve for predicting individual outcomes of MPC versus SPC was 0.77. In summary, we provide the first set of penetrance estimates for first and second primary cancer for TP53 germline mutation carriers and demonstrate its accuracy for cancer risk assessment. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings present an open-source R package LFSPRO that could be used for genetic counseling and health management of individuals with LFS as it estimates the risk of both first and second primary cancer diagnosis.See related article by Shin et al., p. 354.

Li-Fraumeni syndrome heterogeneity

Clinical variability is commonly seen in Li-Fraumeni syndrome. Phenotypic heterogeneity is present among different families affected by the same pathogenic variant in TP53 gene and among members of the same family. However, causes of this huge clinical spectrum have not been studied in depth. TP53 type mutation, polymorphic variants in TP53 gene or in TP53-related genes, copy number variations in particular regions, and/or epigenetic deregulation of TP53 expression might be responsible for clinical heterogeneity. In this review, recent advances in the understanding of genetic and epigenetic aspects influencing Li-Fraumeni phenotype are discussed.

High prevalence of cancer-associated TP53 variants in the gnomAD database: A word of caution concerning the use of variant filtering

The 1,000 genome project, the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC) or the Genome Aggregation database (gnomAD) datasets, were developed to provide large-scale reference data of genetic variations for various populations to filter out common benign variants and identify rare variants of clinical importance based on their frequency in the human population. Using a TP53 repository of 80,000 cancer variants, as well as TP53 variants from multiple cancer genome projects, we have defined a set of certified oncogenic TP53 variants. This specific set has been independently validated by functional and in silico predictive analysis. Here we show that a significant number of these variants are included in gnomAD and ExAC. Most of them correspond to TP53 hotspot variants occurring as somatic and germline events in human cancer. Similarly, disease-associated variants for five other tumor suppressor genes, including BRCA1, BRCA2, APC, PTEN, and MLH1, have also been identified. This study demonstrates that germline TP53 variants in the human population are more frequent than previously thought. Furthermore, population databases such as gnomAD or ExAC must be used with caution and need to be annotated for the presence of oncogenic variants to improve their clinical utility.