Hepatitis B Virus Combo Mutations Improve the Prediction and Active Prophylaxis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Clinic-Based Cohort Study

A critical review of diagnostic and prognostic markers of chronic hepatitis B infection

A major worldwide health concern, chronic hepatitis B necessitates precise prognostic and diagnostic indicators for clinical guidance. This article highlights the clinical importance and current issues of the major markers used in both the detection and prognosis of chronic hepatitis B. An important indicator of an ongoing and persistent infection is the hepatitis B surface antigen. Hepatitis B virus DNA quantification monitoring aids in assessing viral load and hepatic cancer risk. While limited evidence of liver damage is provided by alanine aminotransferase levels, the hepatitis B core antibody verifies acute infection. Seroconversion to the hepatitis B e antibody is linked to a lower risk of disease development, and the hepatitis B e antigen status is a critical prognostic factor. Treatment choices are guided by a biopsy of the liver or minimally invasive liver fibrosis detection. Genotypes of the hepatitis B virus and host variables influence the prognosis by adding to the disease's variability. Noninvasive techniques to evaluate the severity of the disease are provided by serum markers of fibrosis, such as the fibrosis score based on four criteria and the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index. The requirement for indicators that distinguish between distinct viral phases and increase specificity in evaluating liver damage is one of the challenges facing chronic hepatitis B research. Even though it is quite difficult to find reliable biomarkers for resistance especially when it comes to hepatocellular cancer risk estimation, there are advanced methods, which include imaging and omics that can help in improving the accuracy of the diagnostics and prognosis. Interventions early point that improve patient outcomes are made possible using diagnostics and prognostics as they are quite effective in managing the complicated landscape of chronic hepatitis B. Key in addressing these challenges today and improving the diagnostic and prognostic markers in the future, particularly those that would support the development of successful treatment plans for people living with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV), are scientific research, technological advances and collaborations.

A Lower HCC Incidence in Chronic HBV-Infected Patients Recovered from Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Activation of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is an important cause of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the effect of HBV-ACLF episode on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence remains largely unknown.

Methods

A total of 769 HBV-ACLF patients and 2114 HBV-related chronic liver disease (HBV-CLD) patients diagnosed between August 1998 and December 2011 were enrolled in this prospective cohort study. Of the HBV-CLD patients, 380 received lifetime antiviral treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues. Propensity score matching was applied to reduce baseline differences between HBV-ACLF and HBV-CLD cohorts.

Results

The survival rate of HBV-ACLF patients was 53.6%, 50.3%, 47.8%, and 46.2% at 90-day, 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year, respectively. The cumulative incidence of HCC was lower in HBV-ACLF cohort with 369 eligible patients survived for >90 days than in HBV-CLD cohort with the 380 patients (5.77/1,000 vs. 9.78/1,000 person-years, p = 0.0497). HBV-ACLF episode decreased HCC risk regardless of liver cirrhosis, and in patients without family history of HCC. Multivariate Cox analyses indicated that male, increasing age, liver cirrhosis, and platelet count (≤100 × 10⁹/L) increased, whereas HBV-ACLF episode decreased, HCC risk independently. In the propensity score-matched cohorts, HBV-ACLF episode reduced HCC incidence (10.20/1,000 vs. 4.66/1,000 person-years, p = 0.0326). The area under curve of nomogram was 0.812 for 3-year HCC probability.

Conclusions

HBV-ACLF episode decreases HCC occurrence in chronic HBV patients. Older age and liver cirrhosis independently increased HCC occurrence. A nomogram-enrolled episode of ACLF reliably predicts the occurrence of HCC.

HBV preS Mutations Promote Hepatocarcinogenesis by Inducing Endoplasmic Reticulum Stress and Upregulating Inflammatory Signaling

Simple Summary

Viral mutations at the preS region of hepatitis B virus (HBV) significantly increase the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Compared to HBV preS deletion, the oncogenic effect of preS combo mutation has rarely been investigated. With a cohort including 2114 subjects, we demonstrated that preS combo mutations G2950A/G2951A/A2962G/C2964A and C3116T/T31C significantly increased the risk of HCC in patients without antiviral treatment, whereas preS2 deletion significantly increased the risk of HCC in patients with antiviral treatment. The prevalence of C3116T/T31C (43.61%) was higher than preS2 deletion (7.16%). By using Sleeping Beauty mouse models and in vitro experiments, we found G2950A/G2951A/A2962G/C2964A, C3116T/T31C, and preS2 deletion promoted hepatocarcinogenesis by increasing levels of inflammatory cytokines, activating STAT3 pathway, enhancing endoplasmic reticulum stress, and altering gene expression profiles in inflammation- and metabolism-related pathways. These results suggest that preS combo mutations G2950A/G2951A/A2962G/C2964A and C3116T/T31C had similar oncogenic effects of preS2 deletion and should also be monitored.

Abstract

This study aimed to elucidate the effects and underlying mechanisms of hepatitis B virus (HBV) preS mutations on hepatocarcinogenesis. The effect of the preS mutations on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence was evaluated using a prospective cohort study with 2114 HBV-infected patients, of whom 612 received antiviral treatments. The oncogenic functions of HBV preS mutations were investigated using cancer cell lines and Sleeping Beauty (SB) mouse models. RNA-sequencing and microarray were applied to identify key molecules involved in the mutant-induced carcinogenesis. Combo mutations G2950A/G2951A/A2962G/C2964A and C3116T/T31C significantly increased HCC risk in patients without antiviral treatment, whereas the preS2 deletion significantly increased HCC risk in patients with antiviral treatment. In SB mice, the preS1/preS2/S mutants induced a higher rate of tumor and higher serum levels of inflammatory cytokines than did wild-type counterpart. The preS1/preS2/S mutants induced altered gene expression profiles in the inflammation- and metabolism-related pathways, activated pathways of endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress, affected the response to hypoxia, and upregulated the protein level of STAT3. Inhibiting the STAT3 pathway attenuated the effects of the preS1/preS2/S mutants on cell proliferation. G2950A/G2951A/A2962G/C2964A, C3116T/T31C, and preS2 deletion promote hepatocarcinogenesis via inducing ER stress, metabolism alteration, and STAT3 pathways, which might be translated into HCC prophylaxis.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Primary Liver Cancer in Mainland China From 2003 to 2020: A Representative Multicenter Study

Background

The contribution of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) to primary liver cancer (PLC) and their association with cancer aggressiveness remains uncertain in China, a country with half of global PLC. We aimed to characterize this using data from four representative medical centers.

Methods

In total, 15,801 PLC patients were enrolled from the centers distributed in Easter5n, Southern, Northern, and Western China from 2003 to 2020. Of those, 7585 with curative surgery were involved in survival analysis. A nomogram was constructed using preoperative parameters to predict postoperative survival.

Results

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, and combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma accounted for 93.0%, 4.3%, and 1.6% in PLC, respectively. The seropositivities of HBV and HCV were 84.4% and 3.2% in HCC, respectively. The seropositivity of anti-HCV antibody was significantly higher in HBV-negative than in HBV-positive HCC patients (13.2% vs. 1.1%). Compared to HCV-positive HCC (HCV-HCC), HBV-positive HCC (HBV-HCC) was associated with 12-year earlier onset, higher proportions of males, high α-fetoprotein, large tumor size, advanced Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and vascular tumor thrombus. The proportions of HCC and HBV seropositivity increased, whereas that of anti-HCV decreased, from 2003 to 2020. Postoperative five-year survival rate was 73.5%, 64.1%, 34.9%, and 19.7% in HCC at BCLC stage 0, A, B, and C, respectively. The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that HBV seropositivity, incomplete tumor capsule, vascular tumor thrombus, tumor diameter (≥3 cm), advanced BCLC stage (B+C), α-fetoprotein (≥20ng/ml), and direct bilirubin (>8µmol/L) contributed independently to shorter overall survival (OS); whereas post-operative radiofrequency ablation and second resection independently improved OS in HCC. HCV-HCC had a more favorable prognosis than did HBV-HCC (Log-rank test, P<0.001). A nomogram composed of age, gender, and the preoperative independent risk factors was accurate in predicting postoperative survival in HCC (C-index: 0.735; 95% confidence interval: 0.727–0.743).

Conclusion

HBV contributes to 84.4% of HCC in China, and actively promotes hepatocarcinogenesis and HCC progression. A favorable postoperative survival obtained in patients at the early BCLC stage highlights the importance of screening for early HCC in high-risk populations. Our preoperative prognosis prediction model is important in clinical decision-making.

The Effects and Underlying Mechanisms of Hepatitis B Virus X Gene Mutants on the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

We aimed to elucidate the mechanism by which hepatitis B virus X (HBx) mutations increase the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and identify novel putative therapeutic targets. Wild-type HBx (WT-HBx) and four HBx mutants (M1, A1762T/G1764A; M2, T1674G+T1753C+A1762T/G1764A; M3, C1653T+T1674G+A1762T/G1764A; and Ct-HBx, carboxylic acid-terminal truncated HBx) were delivered into Sleeping Beauty (SB) mouse models. The HCC incidence was higher in the M3-HBx- and Ct-HBx-injected SB mice. M3-HBx had a stronger capacity of upregulating inflammatory cytokines than other HBx variants. Ectopic expression of M3-HBx and Ct-HBx significantly increased proliferation and S phase proportion of HepG2 and HeLa cells, compared to WT-HBx. Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI1) and cell division cycle 20 (CDC20) were identified as novel effectors by cDNA microarray analysis. M3-HBx and Ct-HBx significantly upregulated the expression of PAI1 and CDC20 in HepG2 and HeLa cells as well as the livers of SB mice. Silencing PAI1 attenuated the effects of M3-HBx and Ct-HBx on the growth of HepG2 and HeLa cells. PAI1, an important player bridging the HBx mutants and HCC, should be a promising candidate as a prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target in HBV-related HCC.

Influence of Demographic Factors on Long-Term Trends of Premature Mortality and Burden Due to Liver Cancer: Findings From a Population-Based Study in Shanghai, China, 1973–2019

Objective

Liver cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer-related death. Understanding how demographic factors influence mortality due to liver cancer is crucial for optimizing disease-control strategies. We aimed to characterize the long-term trends in the mortality and years of life lost (YLL) of liver cancer in Shanghai, China, 1973–2019, and quantitatively analyze the contributions of demographic and non-demographic factors on the mortality of liver cancer.

Methods

Using mortality data from the Mortality Registration System of Pudong New Area, the largest district of Shanghai with a population of permanent resident of 5.68 million, during 1973–2019, we analyzed the temporal trends for the mortality rates and YLL by Joinpoint Regression Program. The difference decomposition method was employed to estimate the increasing mortality rates related to demographic and non-demographic factors.

Results

A total of 21,530 deaths from liver cancer occurred from 1973 to 2019. The crude mortality rates (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rate by Segi's world standard population (ASMRW) of liver cancer were 26.73/10⁵ person-years and 15.72/10⁵ person-years, respectively. The CMR, ASMRW, and YLL rates of liver cancer showed significantly decreasing trends in males, females and the total population from 1973 to 2019, whereas the upward trends in the YLL were seen in males, females and the total population (all P < 0.05). A significant upward trend was observed in the increased CMR caused by demographic factors, but the changing rate caused by non-demographic factors decreased.

Conclusions

The CMR and ASMRW of liver cancer continually decreased although YLL increased during 1973–2019 in Pudong New Area, Shanghai. The demographic factors, especially aging, might be responsible for the increase in the mortality of liver cancer. More effective prevention strategies tailored to liver cancer are needed to further reduce its disease burden in the elderly population.

Cancer Evo-Dev: A Theory of Inflammation-Induced Oncogenesis

Chronic inflammation is a prerequisite for the development of cancers. Here, we present the framework of a novel theory termed as Cancer Evolution-Development (Cancer Evo-Dev) based on the current understanding of inflammation-related carcinogenesis, especially hepatocarcinogenesis induced by chronic infection with hepatitis B virus. The interaction between genetic predispositions and environmental exposures, such as viral infection, maintains chronic non-resolving inflammation. Pollution, metabolic syndrome, physical inactivity, ageing, and adverse psychosocial exposure also increase the risk of cancer via inducing chronic low-grade smoldering inflammation. Under the microenvironment of non-resolving inflammation, pro-inflammatory factors facilitate the generation of somatic mutations and viral mutations by inducing the imbalance between the mutagenic forces such as cytidine deaminases and mutation-correcting forces including uracil-DNA glycosylase. Most cells with somatic mutations and mutated viruses are eliminated in survival competition. Only a small percentage of mutated cells survive, adapt to the hostile environment, retro-differentiate, and function as cancer-initiating cells via altering signaling pathways. These cancer-initiating cells acquire stem-ness, reprogram metabolic patterns, and affect the microenvironment. The carcinogenic process follows the law of "mutation-selection-adaptation". Chronic physical activity reduces the levels of inflammation via upregulating the activity and numbers of NK cells and lymphocytes and lengthening leukocyte telomere; downregulating proinflammatory cytokines including interleukin-6 and senescent lymphocytes especially in aged population. Anti-inflammation medication reduces the occurrence and recurrence of cancers. Targeting cancer stemness signaling pathways might lead to cancer eradication. Cancer Evo-Dev not only helps understand the mechanisms by which inflammation promotes the development of cancers, but also lays the foundation for effective prophylaxis and targeted therapy of various cancers.

Trends in cancer mortality in China from 2004 to 2018: A nationwide longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The long-term trend in cancer death in a rapidly developing country provides information for cancer prophylaxis. Here, we aimed to identify the trends in cancer mortality in China during the 2004-2018 period.

METHODS

Using raw data from the national mortality surveillance system of China, we assessed the mortalities of all cancer and site-specific cancers during the 2004-2018 period. The participants were divided into three age groups: ≥65 years, 40-64 years, and ≤39 years. Changing trends in cancer death by gender, residency, and tumor location were estimated using fitting joinpoint models to log-transformed crude mortality rates (CMRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs).

RESULTS

Cancer death accounted for 24% of all-cause of death in China during 2014-2018. The CMR of all cancer was 150.0 per 100,000 persons. Cancer was the leading cause of death in the population <65 years. The six major cancer types (lung/bronchus cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer, esophagus cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer) accounted for 75.85% of all cancer deaths. The CMR of all cancer increased while the ASMR decreased during 2014-2018 (P < 0.001). Lung/bronchus cancer and liver cancer were the leading causes of cancer death in the population <65 years, accounting for 45.31% (CMR) and 44.35% (ASMR) of all cancer death, respectively. The ASMR of liver cancer was higher in the 40-64 years population than in the ≥65 years population, in contrast to the other five major cancers. The ASMRs of liver cancer, stomach cancer, and esophagus cancer decreased although they were higher in rural residents than in urban residents; the ASMRs of lung/bronchus cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer increased in rural residents although they were higher in urban residents than in rural residents during 2014-2018.

CONCLUSION

Although the ASMR of all cancer decreased in China during 2004-2018, lung/bronchus cancer and liver cancer remained the leading causes of cancer-related premature death. Lung/bronchus cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer increased in rural residents.

Nucleotide variants in hepatitis B virus preS region predict the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma

Background: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) variants in the preS region have been associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the effect of the preS variants on HCC prognosis remains largely unknown. We aimed to identify the preS variants that reliably predict postoperative prognosis in HCC.

Methods: RNA-seq data of 203 HCC patients retrieved from public database were screened for the preS variants related to HCC prognosis. The variants in the sera and tumors were then validated in our prospective cohort enrolling 103 HBV-associated HCC patients.

Results: By analyzing prognosis-related gene sets in the RNA-seq data, 12 HBV preS variants were associated with HCC recurrence. Of those, G40C and C147T in the sera predicted an unfavorable recurrence-free survival in our cohort (hazard ratio [HR]=2.18, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.37-3.47, p=0.001 for G40C; HR=1.84, 95% CI=1.15-2.92, p=0.012 for C147T). G40C and C147T were significantly associated with microscopic vascular invasion, larger tumor size, and abnormal liver function. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that G40C significantly increased the risk of HCC recurrence in patients with postoperative antiviral treatment. The HCC prognosis-prediction model consisting of α-fetoprotein and G40C in the sera achieved the best performance (sensitivity=0.80, specificity=0.70, and area under the curve=0.79). Functional analysis indicated that these two variants were associated with cell proliferation, chromosome instability, carcinogenesis, metastasis, and anticancer drug resistance.

Conclusions: G40C and C147T are serological biomarkers for HCC prognosis and the prognostic model consisting of serological α-fetoprotein and G40C achieved the best performance in predicting postoperative prognosis.

High possibility of hepatocarcinogenesis in HBV genotype C1 infected Cambodians is indicated by 340 HBV C1 full-genomes analysis from GenBank

Approximately 75% of hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC) occur in Asia; core promoter mutations are associated with HCC in HBV genotype C, the dominant genotype in Cambodia. We analyzed these mutations in Cambodian residents and compared them with HBV full genomes registered in GenBank. We investigated the characteristics of 26 full-length HBV genomes among 35 residents positive for hepatitis B surface antigen in Siem Reap province, Cambodia. Genotype C1 was dominant (92.3%, 24/26), with one case of B2 and B4 each. Multiple mutations were confirmed in 24 Cambodian C1 isolates, especially double mutation at A1762T/G1764A in 18 isolates (75.0%), and combination mutation at C1653T and/or T1753V and A1762T/G1764A in 14 isolates (58.3%). In phylogenetic analysis, 16 of 24 isolates were located in the cluster with Laos, Thailand, and Malaysia. In 340 GenBank-registered C1 strains, 113 (33.2%) had combination mutation amongst which 16.5%, 34.2%, and 95.2% were found in ASC, chronic hepatitis, and liver cirrhosis (LC)/HCC respectively (P < 0. 001). Mutations were abundantly found in 24 Cambodian C1 isolates, and 340 C1 strains from GenBank showed mutation in genotype C1 brings high possibility of LC/HCC occurrence. Therefore, we suggest that Cambodian people infected with HBV genotype C1 have high possibility of hepatocarcinogenesis.

Genetic Polymorphisms Predisposing the Interleukin 6-Induced APOBEC3B-UNG Imbalance Increase HCC Risk via Promoting the Generation of APOBEC-Signature HBV Mutations

PURPOSE

APOBEC3-UNG imbalance contributes to hepatitis B virus (HBV) inhibition and somatic mutations. We aimed to explore the associations between hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk and genetic polymorphisms predisposing the imbalance.Experimental Design: Genetic polymorphisms at APOBEC3 promoter and UNG enhancer regions were genotyped in 5,621 participants using quantitative PCR. HBV mutations (nt.1600-nt.1945, nt.2848-nt.155) were determined by Sanger sequencing. Dual-luciferase reporter assay was applied to detect the transcriptional activity. Effects of APOBEC3B/UNG SNPs and expression levels on HCC prognosis were evaluated with a cohort of 400 patients with HCC and public databases, respectively.

RESULTS

APOBEC3B rs2267401-G allele and UNG rs3890995-C allele significantly increased HCC risk. rs2267401-G allele was significantly associated with the generation of APOBEC-signature HBV mutation whose frequency consecutively increased from asymptomatic HBV carriers to patients with HCC. Multiplicative interaction of rs2267401-G allele with rs3890995-C allele increased HCC risk, with an adjusted OR (95% confidence interval) of 1.90 (1.34-2.81). rs2267401 T-to-G and rs3890995 T-to-C conferred increased activities of APOBEC3B promoter and UNG enhancer, respectively. IL6 significantly increased APOBEC3B promoter activity and inhibited UNG enhancer activity, and these effects were more evident in those carrying rs2267401-G and rs3890995-C, respectively. APOBEC3B rs2267401-GG genotype, higher APOBEC3B expression, and higher APOBEC3B/UNG expression ratio in HCCs indicated poor prognosis. APOBEC-signature somatic mutation predicts poor prognosis in HBV-free HCCs rather than in HBV-positive ones.

CONCLUSIONS

Polymorphic genotypes predisposing the APOBEC3B-UNG imbalance in IL6-presenting microenvironment promote HCC development, possibly via promoting the generation of high-risk HBV mutations. This can be transformed into specific prophylaxis of HBV-caused HCC.

Contribution of Hepatitis B Virus Infection to the Aggressiveness of Primary Liver Cancer: A Clinical Epidemiological Study in Eastern China

Background and aims: The contribution of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection to the aggressiveness of primary liver cancer (PLC) remains controversial. We aimed to characterize this in eastern China. Methods: We enrolled 8,515 PLC patients whose specimens were reserved at the BioBank of the hepatobiliary hospital (Shanghai, China) during 2007-2016. Of those, 3,124 who received primary radical resection were involved in survival analysis. A nomogram was constructed to predict the survivals using preoperative parameters. Results: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), and combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (CHC) accounted for 94.6, 3.7, and 1.7%, respectively. The rates of HBV infection were 87.5, 49.2, and 80.6%, respectively. HBV infection was significantly associated with 10-year earlier onset, more cirrhosis, higher α-fetoprotein, higher carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), more microvascular invasion (MVI), lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and lower platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in HCC. HBV infection was also associated with 7-year earlier onset, more cirrhosis, higher α-fetoprotein, more MVI, and lower PLR in ICC. In the multivariate Cox analysis, high circulating HBV DNA, α-fetoprotein, CA19-9, NLR, tumor size, number, encapsulation, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and MVI predicted an unfavorable prognosis in HCC; only CA19-9 and BCLC stage, rather than HBV-related parameters, had prognostic values in ICC. A nomogram constructed with preoperative HBV-related parameters including HBV load, ultrasonic cirrhosis, and α-fetoprotein perform better than the current staging systems in predicting postoperative survival in HCC. Conclusion: HBV promotes the aggressiveness of HCC in Chinese population. The contributions of HBV to ICC and other etiological factors to HCC might be indirect via arousing non-resolving inflammation.

Deep sequencing of HBV pre-S region reveals high heterogeneity of HBV genotypes and associations of word pattern frequencies with HCC

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a common problem in the world, especially in China. More than 60–80% of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases can be attributed to HBV infection in high HBV prevalent regions. Although traditional Sanger sequencing has been extensively used to investigate HBV sequences, NGS is becoming more commonly used. Further, it is unknown whether word pattern frequencies of HBV reads by Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) can be used to investigate HBV genotypes and predict HCC status. In this study, we used NGS to sequence the pre-S region of the HBV sequence of 94 HCC patients and 45 chronic HBV (CHB) infected individuals. Word pattern frequencies among the sequence data of all individuals were calculated and compared using the Manhattan distance. The individuals were grouped using principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and hierarchical clustering. Word pattern frequencies were also used to build prediction models for HCC status using both K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM). We showed the extremely high power of analyzing HBV sequences using word patterns. Our key findings include that the first principal coordinate of the PCoA analysis was highly associated with the fraction of genotype B (or C) sequences and the second principal coordinate was significantly associated with the probability of having HCC. Hierarchical clustering first groups the individuals according to their major genotypes followed by their HCC status. Using cross-validation, high area under the receiver operational characteristic curve (AUC) of around 0.88 for KNN and 0.92 for SVM were obtained. In the independent data set of 46 HCC patients and 31 CHB individuals, a good AUC score of 0.77 was obtained using SVM. It was further shown that 3000 reads for each individual can yield stable prediction results for SVM. Thus, another key finding is that word patterns can be used to predict HCC status with high accuracy. Therefore, our study shows clearly that word pattern frequencies of HBV sequences contain much information about the composition of different HBV genotypes and the HCC status of an individual.

HBV infection can lead to many liver complications including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), one of the most common liver cancers in China. High-throughput sequencing technologies have recently been used to study the genotype sequence compositions of HBV infected individuals and to distinguish chronic HBV (CHB) infection from HCC. We used NGS to sequence the pre-S region of a large number of CHB and HCC individuals and designed novel word pattern based approaches to analyze the data. We have several surprising key findings. First, most HBV infected individuals contained mixtures of genotypes B and C sequences. Second, multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) analysis of the data showed that the first principal coordinate was closely associated with the fraction of genotype B (or C) sequences and the second principal coordinate was highly associated with the probability of HCC. Third, we also designed K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) based classifiers for CHB and HCC with high prediction accuracy. The results were validated in an independent data set.

Clustering infection of hepatitis B virus genotype B4 among residents in Vietnam, and its genomic characters both intra- and extra-family

Vietnam has a high rate of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and a high mortality rate from hepatocellular carcinoma. We performed a detailed genetic analysis of 48 residents and four families from Binh Thuan Province, a southern coastal area of Vietnam. The route of infection and genomic characteristics related to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were studied in HBV spread among carriers that we detected in our previous hepatitis survey. The HBV genotype was B4 in 91.7% and C1 in 8.3% of the cases. The intra-family’s HBV sequence homology was high at 96.8–99.4%. However, it was also high at 99.4–99.8% among residents of the same age and sex as family members. In addition, full genome analysis was performed in 21 cases. The core region of all 20 isolates with genotype B4 was a recombinant of genotype C, and pre-S deletion was found in 20% of cases. The promoter mutation G1613A was found in 13.6% of cases, and a 24 bp insertion from nt1673 in the X region was found in 6.3% of cases. The phylogenetic tree and homology analysis of the HBV full genome suggested the probability and its possibility of horizontal transmission not only within families nor vertical transmission but within cohorts of the same generation in the population. Moreover, the HBV genotype B4 isolates were found not only to be recombinants of genotype C, which results in a high cancer risk, but also to have other risk of HCC, pre-S deletions, the G1613A mutation, and X region insertions corresponding to the promoter. These genomic characters were suggested to be one of the factors to explain the high HCC mortality rate in Vietnam.

Increased hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B patients with persistently elevated serum total bile acid: a retrospective cohort study

To investigate the association between long-term changes of serum total bile acid and hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients, we did a retrospective cohort study of 2262 chronic hepatitis B patients with regular antiviral treatment using data from the Hepatitis Biobank at Southwest Hospital Program from 2004 to 2014. Patients in the study were classified into 3 groups according to persistence of elevated serum total bile acid during follow-up: none-low, medium, and high persistence of elevated serum total bile acid. The association between persistence of elevated serum total bile acid and hepatocellular carcinoma was estimated using Cox proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier analysis including information about patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. There were 62 hepatocellular carcinoma cases during a total follow-up of 14756.5 person-years in the retrospective study. Compared to patients with none-low persistence of elevated total bile acid, the multivariate adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 2.37 (1.16-4.84), and 2.57 (1.28-5.16) for patients with medium, and high persistence of elevated total bile acid. Our findings identified persistence of elevated serum total bile acid as an independent risk factor of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients.

Transforming Cancer Prevention through Precision Medicine and Immune-oncology

We have entered a transformative period in cancer prevention (including early detection). Remarkable progress in precision medicine and immune-oncology, driven by extraordinary recent advances in genome-wide sequencing, big-data analytics, blood-based technologies, and deep understanding of the tumor immune microenvironment (TME), has provided unprecedented possibilities to study the biology of premalignancy. The pace of research and discovery in precision medicine and immunoprevention has been astonishing and includes the following clinical firsts reported in 2015: driver mutations detected in circulating cell-free DNA in patients with premalignant lesions (lung); clonal hematopoiesis shown to be a premalignant state; molecular selection in chemoprevention randomized controlled trial (RCT; oral); striking efficacy in RCT of combination chemoprevention targeting signaling pathway alterations mechanistically linked to germline mutation (duodenum); molecular markers for early detection validated for lung cancer and showing promise for pancreatic, liver, and ovarian cancer. Identification of HPV as the essential cause of a major global cancer burden, including HPV16 as the single driver of an epidemic of oropharyngeal cancer in men, provides unique opportunities for the dissemination and implementation of public health interventions. Important to immunoprevention beyond viral vaccines, genetic drivers of premalignant progression were associated with increasing immunosuppressive TME; and Kras vaccine efficacy in pancreas genetically engineered mouse (GEM) model required an inhibitory adjuvant (Treg depletion). In addition to developing new (e.g., epigenetic) TME regulators, recent mechanistic studies of repurposed drugs (aspirin, metformin, and tamoxifen) have identified potent immune activity. Just as precision medicine and immune-oncology are revolutionizing cancer therapy, these approaches are transforming cancer prevention. Here, we set out a brief agenda for the immediate future of cancer prevention research (including a "Pre-Cancer Genome Atlas" or "PCGA"), which will involve the inter-related fields of precision medicine and immunoprevention - pivotal elements of a broader domain of personalized public health.

Prediction and prophylaxis of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence and postoperative recurrence in chronic hepatitis B virus-infected subjects

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common and highly fatal malignancies worldwide. Chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major cause of HCC. High HBV replication rate and related non-resolving inflammation are the major risk factors of HCC occurrence and postoperative recurrence. Early prophylactic options are effective in reducing HCC occurrence and improving survival. Therefore, it is important to identify HBV-infected patients who are at a higher risk of developing HCC and HBV-HCC patients who are more likely to relapse after surgery, thus providing them with more precise prophylactic strategies. Several prediction models of HCC occurrence have been constructed, with satisfactory predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability. However, there is a lack of consensus for their clinical implementation. Several staging systems have been proposed for HCC prognosis. However, the accuracy of these staging systems based on demographic characteristics and clinical measurements needs to be further improved, possibly by systematically incorporating viral and inflammatory factors. Since antiviral treatments are effective in promoting liver function reserve, reducing HCC occurrence and prolonging postoperative survival in some HBV-infected subjects, it is very important to identify subgroups of HBV-infected patients who would most benefit from antiviral treatment.

Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well.

Cancer Evolution-Development: experience of hepatitis B virus-induced hepatocarcinogenesis

Here, we present the basic concept and theoretical framework of a scientific hypothesis called Cancer Evolution-Development ("Cancer Evo-Dev"), based on our recent studies of the molecular mechanisms by which chronic infection with the hepatitis B virus induces hepatocarcinogenesis, together with related advances in that field. Several aspects central to our hypothesis are presented: ■ Immune imbalance-caused by the interaction of genetic predispositions and environmental exposures such as viral infection-is responsible for the maintenance of chronic non-resolving inflammation. Non-resolving inflammation promotes the occurrence and progression of cancers, characterized by an evolutionary process of "mutation-selection-adaptation" for both viruses and host cells.■ Under a microenvironment of non-resolving inflammation, proinflammatory factors promote mutations in viral or host genomes by transactivation of the expression of cytidine deaminases and their analogues. Most cells with genomic mutations and mutated viruses are eliminated in the competition for survival in the inflammatory microenvironment. Only a small percentage of the mutated cells that alter their survival signal pathways and exhibit the characteristics of "stem-ness" can survive and function as cancer-initiating cells.■ Cancers generally develop with properties of "backward evolution" and "retro-differentiation," indicating the indispensability of stem-like signal pathways in the evolution and development of cancers. The hypothesis of Cancer Evo-Dev not only lays the theoretical foundation for understanding the mechanisms by which inflammation promotes the development of cancers, but also plays an important role in specific prophylaxis, prediction, early diagnosis, and targeted treatment of cancers.