Multiple Sclerosis in Southern Europe: Monreale City, Italy

Multiple sclerosis epidemiological trends in Italy highlight the environmental risk factors

Italy is definitely a high-risk country for multiple sclerosis (MS). Over the last 50 years, several epidemiological studies, including longitudinal surveys, have disclosed that MS incidence and prevalence in Italy mainland and Islands (Sardinia and Sicily) have progressively increased, picturing a semi-parabolic curve. Based on the comprehensive scrutiny of 58 papers, we conclude that the latitude risk gradient does not fit to the Italian map of MS. The genetic heterogeneity of the Italian ethnicities, that likely forms the basis of MS predisposition, does not account for the dramatic increase of MS incidence and prevalence observed in Italy over the last half century that, rather, seems better explained by the effect of environmental factors.

Incidence, prevalence and characteristics of MS in São Miguel, an island in the Atlantic

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory-demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS). With approximately 2.3 million people estimated to live with MS globally, incidence and prevalence of the disease vary significantly across regions. Generically, the global distribution of MS varies with geographic latitude. However, MS epidemiological data in Southern Europe and Mediterranean countries revealed areas of unexpectedly high prevalence and incidence of MS, thereby demonstrating that clear exceptions to the variation of MS with latitude exist. Epidemiological evidence on MS in Portugal is limited to studies concerning specific regions of the country and therefore not representative of the entire country. More studies form different regions of the country are needed in order to effectively establish MS prevalence and incidence in Portugal. The aim of this study is to determine MS incidence and prevalence, as well as gather information on other clinical data in São Miguel, the biggest island of the Azores, a Portuguese archipelago situated in the North Atlantic.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study of MS patients from the only hospital of São Miguel, an island with a population of 137,150 habitants. Only patients from São Miguel were included in the study. 1/07/2019 was established as the prevalence day and demographic characteristics (sex, age at diagnosis and year of diagnosis) and clinical outcome (type of the disease, treatment, clinical severity score [EDSS]) were reported. 5-year Incidence of MS was studied from 1/07/2014 to 01/07/2019.

RESULTS

47 patients were enrolled in the study, 27 (57.4%) were female and 20 (42.6%) were male. 43 patients were classified as having RRMS and 4 patients classified as having SPMS. Prevalence of MS in São Miguel island was 34.3/100.000. The prevalence for females was 38.5/100.000 and for males was 29.9/100.000. Age-adjusted and sex-adjusted (to the population of the European Union in 2019) MS prevalence were 31.1/100.000 and 34.3/100.000 respectively. Incidence was 2.04/100,000 person-years for the overall population, 2.56/100,000 person-years for females and 1.49/100,000 person-years for males. Age-adjusted and sex-adjusted MS incidence were 1.74/100.000 person-years and 2.04/100.000 person-years respectively. Regarding clinical characteristics, the mean EDSS was 2.93 ± 1.85, the mean age at the time of the diagnosis was 31.77 ± 8.47 years and the mean time of evolution of the disease (period between diagnosis and prevalence date) was 9.19 ± 6.55 years. Treatment options were diverse and included first and second-line treatments as well as Immune reconstitution therapies. Interferon-beta was the most prescribed medication. 2 patients were not making any DMT.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and prevalence of MS reported by our study is lower than what was registered by other studies. Several reasons may explain these results such as the ancestry of the population of São Miguel, migratory flows and limitations in detecting all MS patients. Incidence and prevalence were higher in females. A marked heterogeneity in clinical characteristics was seen, with great variability in degree of disability, age at diagnosis and time of MS evolution. Treatment options were quite varied in the population, with Interferon-beta being the most prescribed DMT.

Estimated prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Italy in 2015

Italy is a high risk area for multiple sclerosis (MS) as confirmed by the numerous prevalence and incidence studies conducted in several regions/districts of the country. Nevertheless, there are no recent published epidemiological data, nor studies about the total prevalence of MS in Italy. Our aim was to update as of 2015 the prevalence rates of MS in different geographical areas using already published epidemiological studies, and to estimate the overall prevalence of the disease in Italy. We made a search in MEDLINE database of all published studies on epidemiology of MS in Italy. Then, we applied, to the already published prevalence data, the last published incidence and mortality rates to recalculate, as of 2015, the prevalence of MS. So, we calculated the mean prevalence rate from our extrapolations, and we applied it to the population in 2015 to estimate the number of MS patients in Italy. Our prevalence extrapolations ranged from 122 to 232 cases/100,000 in the mainland and Sicily, with an average of 176/100,000, and from 280 to 317 cases/100,000 in Sardinia with an average of 299/100,000. Applying these media to the Italian population in 2015, we obtained an estimate of more than 109,000 MS patients in Italy. Our estimates were higher than the latest published rates but consistent with the annual increase of prevalence due to incidence that exceeds mortality, with the increase of survival and, maybe, with the probable increase of incidence.

Chlamydia pneumoniae infection and the risk of multiple sclerosis: a meta-analysis

We conducted a meta-analysis of studies comparing the presence of Chlamydia pneumoniae (Cpn) between multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and other neurological diseases patients or healthy controls. We identified 26 studies with 1332 MS patients and 1464 controls. Using random-effects methods, MS patients were found more likely to have detectable levels of Cpn DNA (OR = 3.216; 95% CI: 1.204, 8.585) in their cerebrospinal fluid, and intrathecally synthesized immunoglobulins (OR = 3.842; 95% CI: 1.317, 11.212), compared to other patients with neurological diseases. There is no evidence for increased levels of serum immunoglobulins (OR = 1.068; 95% CI: 0.745, 1.530), even though this result is confounded by the presence of studies using normal subjects as controls. Similarly, there is no evidence for association of immunoglobulins against Cpn in the cerebrospinal fluid (OR = 3.815; 95% CI: 0.715, 20.369). Up to 59.7% of the between-studies variability could be explained by the inappropriate matching of cases and controls for gender. In random-effects meta-regressions, adjusting for the confounding effect of gender differences results in stronger and statistically significant associations of MS with detectable levels of Cpn DNA, intrathecally synthesized immunoglobulins and immunoglobulins in the cerebrospinal fluid. Even though the presence of Cpn is clearly more likely in MS patients, these findings are insufficient to establish an etiologic relation.

Onset-adjusted incidence of multiple sclerosis in the Girona province (Spain): Evidence of increasing risk in the south of Europe

BACKGROUND

Recent studies show an increasing incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in southern Europe. Although by its geographical location and genetic characteristics Spain is expected to be similar to other southern European regions, data on incidence are scarce. The aim of this study was to determine the onset-adjusted incidence of MS in the Girona province in Catalonia (Spain).

METHODS

A prospective incidence study pooling data from the population-based Catalonia MS Registry was performed. Incident cases were defined as patients who had the onset of symptoms compatible with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) suggestive of MS in 2009 and fulfilled McDonald-2005 criteria during follow-up. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were obtained.

RESULTS

The Registry included 182 patients residing in Girona that presented a CIS from January 2009 to December 2013. Fifty one patients had the onset of symptoms in 2009, of whom 27 patients fulfilled the diagnostic criteria, giving an incidence of 3.6 per 100,000 (CI 95% 2.4-5.3) inhabitants; 4.3 (CI 95% 2.5-7.1) for women and 2.9 (CI 95% 1.4-5.2) for men. The age-adjusted incidence rate for the European population was 3.29 (CI 95% 3.2-3.3).

CONCLUSION

The incidence estimation derived in this study is consistent with recent epidemiological data of MS in southern Europe suggesting an increase in incidence in this region.

Incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Europe: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of neurological disability in young adults worldwide and approximately half of those affected are in Europe. The assessment of differential incidence and prevalence across populations can reveal spatial, temporal and demographic patterns which are important for identifying genetic and environmental factors contributing to MS. However, study methodologies vary and the quality of the methods can influence the estimates. This study aimed to systematically review European studies of incidence and prevalence of MS and to provide a quantitative assessment of their methodological quality.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was performed to obtain all original population-based studies of MS incidence and prevalence in European populations conducted and published between January 1985 and January 2011. Only peer-reviewed full-text articles published in English or French were included. All abstracts were screened for eligibility and two trained reviewers abstracted the data and graded the quality of each study using a tool specifically designed for this study.

RESULTS

There were 123 studies that met the inclusion criteria. The study estimates were highly heterogeneous, even within regions or countries. Quality was generally higher in the more recent studies, which also tended to use current diagnostic criteria. Prevalence and incidence estimates tended to be higher in the more recent studies and were higher in the Nordic countries and in northern regions of the British Isles. With rare exceptions, prevalence and incidence estimates were higher in women with ratios as high as 3:1. Few studies examined ethnicity. Epidemiological data at the national level was uncommon and there were marked geographical disparities in available data, with large areas of Europe unrepresented and other regions well-represented in the literature. Only 37% of the studies provided standardized estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the breadth of the literature on the epidemiology of MS in Europe, inter-study comparisons are hampered by the lack of standardization. Further research should focus on regions not yet studied and the evaluation of ethnic differences in MS prevalence and incidence. National-level studies using current diagnostic criteria, validated case definitions and similar age- and sex-standardization would allow better geographical comparisons.

Incidence of multiple sclerosis among European Economic Area populations, 1985-2009: the framework for monitoring

Background

A debate surrounding multiple sclerosis epidemiology has centred on time-related incidence increases and the need of monitoring. The purpose of this study is to reassess multiple sclerosis incidence in the European Economic Area.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of literature from 1965 onwards and integrated elements of original research, including requested or completed data by surveys authors and specific analyses.

Results

The review of 5323 documents yielded ten studies for age- and sex-specific analyses, and 21 studies for time-trend analysis of single data sets. After 1985, the incidence of multiple sclerosis ranged from 1.12 to 6.96 per 100,000 population, was higher in females, tripled with latitude, and doubled with study midpoint year. The north registered increasing trends from the 1960s and 1970s, with a historic drop in the Faroe Islands, and fairly stable data in the period 1980-2000; incidence rose in Italian and French populations in the period 1970-2000, in Evros (Greece) in the 1980s, and in the French West Indies in around 2000.

Conclusions

We conclude that the increase in multiple sclerosis incidence is only apparent, and that it is not specific to women. Monitoring of multiple sclerosis incidence might be appropriate for the European Economic Area.

Geomagnetic disturbances may be environmental risk factor for multiple sclerosis: an ecological study of 111 locations in 24 countries

BACKGROUND

We noticed that a hypothesis based on the effect of geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) has the ability to explain special features of multiple sclerosis (MS). Areas around geomagnetic 60 degree latitude (GM60L) experience the greatest amount of GMD. The easiest way to evaluate our hypothesis was to test the association of MS prevalence (MSP) with angular distance to geomagnetic 60 degree latitude (AMAG60) and compare it with the known association of MS with geographical latitude (GL). We did the same with angular distance to geographic 60 degree latitude (AGRAPH60) as a control.

METHODS

English written papers with MSP keywords, done in Europe (EUR), North America (NA) or Australasia (AUS) were retrieved from the PubMed. Geomagnetic coordinates were determined for each location and AMAG60 was calculated as absolute value of numerical difference between its geomagnetic latitude from GM60L. By an ecological study with using meta-regression analyses, the relationship of MSP with GL, AMAG60 and AGRAPH60 were evaluated separately. MSP data were weighted by square root of number of prevalent cases. Models were compared by their adjusted R square (AR2) and standard error of estimate (SEE).

RESULTS

111 MSP data were entered in the study. In each continent, AMAG60 had the best correlation with MSP, the largest AR2 (0.47, 0.42 and 0.84 for EUR, NA and AUS, respectively) and the least SEE. Merging both hemispheres data, AMAG60 explained 56% of MSP variations with the least SEE (R = 0.75, AR2 = 0.56, SEE = 57), while GL explained 17% (R = 0.41, AR2 = 0.17, SEE = 78.5) and AGRAPH60 explained 12% of that variations with the highest SEE (R = 0.35, AR2 = 0.12, SEE = 80.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirmed that AMAG60 is the best describer of MSP variations and has the strongest association with MSP distribution. They clarified that the well-known latitudinal gradient of MSP may be actually a gradient related to GM60L. Moreover, the location of GM60L can elucidate why MSP has parabolic and linear gradient in the north and south hemisphere, respectively. This preliminary evaluation supported that GMD can be the mysterious environmental risk factor for MS. We believe that this hypothesis deserves to be considered for further validation studies.

Multiple sclerosis prevalence in Malaga, Southern Spain estimated by the capture–recapture method

Background: Although not definitively proven, there is commonly accepted to be a latitudinal gradient in the distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS), which is more frequent in temperate zones. The European Mediterranean countries are situated in a zone of median frequency, although ever increasing figures have been noted in the last decades.

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the current prevalence rate of MS in the province of Malaga, Southern Spain.

Methods: The capture–recapture method (CRM) uses independent sources of data and permits the number of non-registered cases of a given disease to be estimated, and by doing so, to avoid ascertainment bias.

Results: Use of this method showed the estimated prevalence rate of MS in the province of Malaga, Southern Spain, to be 125/105 (95% confidence interval: 102/105–169/105), higher than the figures published previously.

Conclusions: Although we recognize that these data need to be confirmed in further studies and in other areas of the country using a similar method, we believe this study is the first to find such high figure of prevalence, being very similar to the figures reported in recent years in other southern European countries.

Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in Europe: a review

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a progressive demyelinating and degenerative disease of the CNS with symptoms dependent on the type of the disease and the site of lesions. During the progression of the disease, symptoms become more permanent and progressive disability ensues. MS is a disease characterized by wide variations between patients, thus making categorization difficult. The aim of the current study was to review the existing epidemiological data of MS in Europe published during the last decade (2000-2009), using PubMed. Findings revealed an increasing incidence of MS during the last decade. Recent data indicate that latitude does not play a key role in determining the onset of the disease. MS has a significant impact on the quality of life for most patients over many years. The disease is twice as common in women than in men, and is at its peak in the most economically productive years of life. Pregnancy, postpartum status and vaccines may influence the onset and the course of the disease. Only one of the reviewed papers provides a view of progression from onset to death.

Multiple sclerosis and solar exposure before the age of 15 years: case-control study in Cuba, Martinique and Sicily

Few studies report a protective role of childhood solar exposure to multiple sclerosis. Our objective was to confirm the protective role of childhood solar exposure in multiple sclerosis in Cuba, Martinique and Sicily. This was a matched case- control study, and cases met Poser criteria for clinically, laboratory (definite, probable) multiple sclerosis. Controls were resident population, without neurological disorder, living close to cases (within 100 km), matched for sex, age (+/-5 years), residence before age 15. We recruited 551 subjects during a 1-year period (193 cases, Cuba n = 95, Sicily n = 50, Martinique n = 48; 358 controls). Some (89%) met definite clinical multiple sclerosis criteria (relapsing remitting form (with and without sequel) (74%), secondary progressive (21%), primary progressive (5%)). Odds ratios in a uni-variate analysis were: family history of multiple sclerosis (5.1) and autoimmune disorder (4.0); wearing shirt (3.5), hat (2.7), pants (2.4); sun exposure causing sunburn (1.8); sun exposure duration (1 h more/day; weekends 0.91, weekdays 0.86); bare-chested (0.6); water sports (0.2). Independent factors in the multivariate analysis were family history of multiple sclerosis (4.8 (1.50-15.10)), wearing pants under sunlight (1.9 (1.10-3.20)), sun exposure duration (1 h more/ day, weekdays 0.90 (0.85-0.98), weekends 0.93 (0.87-0.99)), water sports (0.23 (0.13-0.40)). We conclude that outdoor leisure activities in addition to sun exposure reports are associated with a reduced multiple sclerosis risk, with evidence of dose response.

The changing demographic pattern of multiple sclerosis epidemiology

The uneven distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) across populations can be attributed to differences in genes and the environment and their interaction. Prevalence and incidence surveys could be affected by inaccuracy of diagnosis and ascertainment, and prevalence also depends on survival. These sources of error might play a part in the geographical and temporal variations. Our literature search and meta-regression analyses indicated an almost universal increase in prevalence and incidence of MS over time; they challenge the well accepted theory of a latitudinal gradient of incidence of MS in Europe and North America, while this gradient is still apparent for Australia and New Zealand; and suggest a general, although not ubiquitous, increase in incidence of MS in females. The latter observation should prompt epidemiological studies to focus on changes in lifestyle in females. New insights into gene-environment and gene-gene interactions complicate interpretations of demographic epidemiology and have made obsolete the idea of simple causative associations between genes or the environment and MS.

Hygiene hypothesis: Innate immunity, malaria and multiple sclerosis

The establishment of new hygienic conditions plays a role in the appearance of autoimmunity in "westernalised" countries. Consistently, but still unconvincingly, several epidemiological and immunogenetic evidences link the disappearance of malaria with the increase of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Sardinia, insular Italy. To this purpose, we have made an attempt to build a relationship between malaria disappearance and MS under the light of the hygiene hypothesis. This relationship has taken into account the MS frequency increase soon after malaria eradication in Sardinia, the present malaria endemism in Africa, the innate immune system activity here represented by Chitotriosidase (Chit), an hydrolytic enzyme produced by macrophages, and an unproductive polymorphism of Chit gene (CHIT1) as a measure of the genetic weight of Plasmodium-related immunity in these populations. Data were derived from both experimental results specifically designed for this study and other data obtained from the available literature. The experimental and the hystorical-epidemiological findings concur to indicate that whilst in Africa CHIT1 mutation is rare and MS incidence is very low due to unmodified parasitic influence and hygienic conditions, in Sardinia a relationships between CHIT1 mutation, plasma Chit activity and MS prevalence rate is detected, even to a higher extent compared to Sicily, area at former lower rate of malaria endemy. Upon such a basis, we have found convincing argumentations that, at least in part, MS has increased over the last four decades in Sardinia also because of the eradication of malaria, 50 years ago. This infectious disease that run for centuries in Sardinia, besides well documented enzyme deficiencies and red cell pathologies, have left an abnormal macrophage reactivity against Plasmodium falciparum. As a result, some Sardinian individuals secrete abnormally high levels of mediators of the innate immunity, relics of former protective anti-malaria infection, in response to new environmental factors. Therefore, MS, an immune-conditioned pathology of the central nervous system has been subject to an unexplained epidemiological increase in the last few decades in Sardinia because cells of the innate immune system, immuno-genetically selected over the centuries in response to widespread P. falciparum malaria, have kept the tendency to over-respond to triggering factors even after the disappearance of malaria. This hypothesis may have an influence in re-directing clinicians toward a innate immunity-based rather than an antigen specific-based new MS therapies.

Prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis in Salerno (southern Italy) and its province

Many multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence studies in Italian northern and central areas, since 1980, have put Italy in a high risk zone; none concerns southern Italy. The MS registry of Salerno Center was reviewed, including the city and 16 towns at different distances (9-149 km) better connected to our Center. Population screened: 259 681 persons (Salerno = 136 678; province = 123 003). Prevalence day was December 31, 2005. Data on 186 patients were collected of which 55 were males, 131 females; crude total prevalence = 71.6263 (62.03-82.303, ranging from 50.1128 (Oliveto Citra) to 431.499 (Controne). Salerno prevalence rate is 70.9697 (57.41-86.583); standardized = 72.02. Incidence rate ranges from 2.38585 (1.6-3.39) (1991-95) to 4.31997 (3.24-5.6) (2001-05). Our data can be underestimated because some patients could have skipped the local center. This emphasizes that the results, except for Sardinia, are comparable to Italian literature data. They confirm that this territory is a high risk area for MS. There is also an indirect indication against a latitude gradient for MS.

Multiple sclerosis in the province of Ferrara : evidence for an increasing trend

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies on the distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) conducted in the Mediterranean area in the last two decades have disclosed a significant increase in frequency of the disease, indicating caution when a latitude-related model of MS is accepted. Previous descriptive surveys in the province of Ferrara, northern Italy, carried out by our own epidemiological research group, have established that this area is at high risk for MS.

OBJECTIVE

To confirm the above assumption and to update MS frequency estimates in this area.

DESIGN AND SETTING

We conducted a community-based intensive prevalence and incidence study, by adopting a complete enumeration approach.

RESULTS

On December 31, 2004, 423 patients (300 women and 123 men) suffering from definite or probable MS (Poser's criteria) living in the province of Ferrara, yielded a crude prevalence rate of 120.93 (95 % CI, 110.05-134.23) per 100,000, 164.26 for women and 73.59 for men. The average incidence from 1990 to 2003 was 4.35 per 100,000 (95 % CI, 3.77-4.99), 5.91 for women and 2.63 for men. The incidence rate,which was relatively stable during the previous 25 years (1965-1989) with a mean rate of 2.3 per 100,000, increased to a value of 3.39 per 100,000 in the period 1990-1994, 4.09 per 100,000 in the period 1995-1999 and 3.84 per 100,000 in the period 2000-2003.

CONCLUSIONS

These results confirm that in Ferrara MS occurs more frequently than suggested by the geographic- related distribution model and, based on other recent national surveys, support the view that northern Italy is a high-risk area for the disease. The marked increase in MS prevalence rate, in comparison with previous investigations, is in part due to the increasing survival of patients as a result of improved supportive care and the accumulation of new incidence cases owing to the reduction in diagnostic latency for better quality of neurological diagnostic procedures. The incidence in the province of Ferrara was found to slowly change with an incremental trend,which cannot only be attributed to improvements in diagnostic ability. Environmental risk factors in genetically predisposed people over time could be considered.

Multiple Sclerosis in Isfahan, Iran

BACKGROUND

This survey was planned to study the prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Isfahan, Iran and to describe the clinical features of MS in general and in specific subgroups of patients (early-onset, late-onset, familial, and conjugal cases) and to compare our results with other reports.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted from April 5, 2003 to July 31, 2006. All patients known to have definite MS according to McDonald's criteria, alive, resident within Isfahan (a large province of Iran) and members of Isfahan MS Society (IMSS) were included in the study. Demographic and case-related information were recorded. A total number of 1718 definite MS patients (388 men and 1330 women) were identified from IMSS database.

RESULTS

The overall period prevalence of MS was 43.8/100,000. Among men the prevalence was 19.2 (95% CI: 17.4-21.2)/100,000 and among women 69.6 (95% CI: 66-73.4)/100,000. A female preponderance of 3.4 existed among these patients. In the year 2005, 143 new cases were diagnosed, resulting in an incidence rate of 3.64/100,000. The mean age of onset was 25.36 +/- 8.6 years (range 5-63 year), and mean duration of disease was 7.1 (+/-5.2) years for men and 6.7 (+/-5) years for women. Sensory and visual disturbances were the most common initial presentations with a prevalence of 51.7% and 47.5%, respectively. Cases identified include: early-onset MS (less than 15 years old at onset) with 87 cases (5%), late-onset MS (over 50 years old at onset) with 20 cases (1.1%), familial MS with 209 cases (12.2%), and conjugal MS with 6 cases (0.5%).

CONCLUSION

Isfahan is a medium- to high-risk area for MS, with prevalence higher than what has previously been reported, possibly because of an increase in the incidence rate. Clinical and demographic characteristics were similar to other reports; however, some differences existed.

High prevalence and fast rising incidence of multiple sclerosis in Caltanissetta, Sicily, southern Italy

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies conducted in Sicily and Sardinia, the two major Mediterranean islands, showed elevated incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS)and a recent increase in disease frequency.

OBJECTIVE

To confirm the central highlands of Sicily as areas of increasing MS prevalence and elevated incidence, we performed a follow-up study based on the town of Caltanissetta (Sicily), southern Italy.

METHODS

We made a formal diagnostic reappraisal of all living patients found in the previous study performed in 1981. All possible information sources were used to search for patients affected by MS diagnosed according to the Poser criteria. We calculated prevalence ratios, for patients affected by MS who were living and resident in the study area on December 31, 2002. Crude and age- and sex-specific incidence ratios were computed for the period from January 1, 1993, to December 31, 2002.

RESULTS

The prevalence of definite MS rose in 20 years from 69.2 (retrospective prevalence rate) to 165.8/100,000 population. We calculated the incidence of definite MS for the period 1970-2000. These rates calculated for 5-year periods increased from 2.3 to 9.2/100,000/year.

CONCLUSION

This survey shows the highest prevalence and incidence figures of MS in the Mediterranean area and confirms central Sicily as a very-high-risk area for MS.

Bayesian mapping of multiple sclerosis prevalence in the province of Pavia, northern Italy

The geographical analysis of a disease risk is particularly difficult when the disease is non-frequent and the area units are small. The practical use of the Bayesian modelling, instead of the classical frequentist one, is applied to study the geographical variation of multiple sclerosis (MS) across the province of Pavia, Northern Italy. 464 MS-affected individuals resident in the province of Pavia were identified on December 31st 2000. The overall prevalence was 94 per 100,000 inhabitants. This estimate indicates an increasing MS prevalence in the province, in accordance with the vast majority of the Italian areas where prevalence studies have been repeated. We mapped the geographical variation of MS prevalence across the 190 communes of the province both with a classical approach and a Bayesian approach. The frequentist approach produced an extremely dishomogeneous map, while the Bayesian map was much smoother and more interpretable. Our study underlines the usefulness of Bayesian methods to obtain reliable maps of disease prevalence and to identify possible clusters of disease where to carry out further epidemiological investigations.

The prevalence of multiple sclerosis in the District of Santarém, Portugal

The prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Portugal is still unknown. Recent studies conducted in southern European countries showed higher than expected rates of MS prevalence. In an attempt to evaluate the MS prevalence in Santarém--a district with 62621 inhabitants (1991 census) located in the centre of Portugal--we have conducted a population survey in this district for five years. The crude prevalence rate found was 46.3/100,000. This figure is not different from findings recently reported in studies conducted at similar latitudes in neighbour southern European countries. This was the first population survey conducted in Portugal, and it is the first accurate contribution to the knowledge of the MS prevalence in this country.