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Lan T, Hu Y, Cheng L, Chen L, Guan X, Yang Y, Guo Y, Pan J. Floods and diarrheal morbidity: Evidence on the relationship, effect modifiers, and attributable risk from Sichuan Province, China. J Glob Health 2022; 12:11007. [PMID: 35871400 PMCID: PMC9308977 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.12.11007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Although studies have provided the estimates of floods-diarrhoea associations, little is known about the lag effect, effect modification, and attributable risk. Based on Sichuan, China, an uneven socio-economic development province with plateau, basin, and mountain terrains spanning different climatic zones, we aimed to systematically examine the impacts of floods on diarrheal morbidity. Methods We retrieved information on daily diarrheal cases, floods, meteorological variables, and annual socio-economic characteristics for 21 cities in Sichuan from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019. We fitted time-series Poisson models to estimate the city-specific floods-diarrhoea relation over the lags of 0-14 days, and then pooled them using meta-analysis for cumulative and lag effects. We further employed meta-regression to explore potential effect modifiers and identify effect modification. We calculated the attributable diarrheal cases and fraction of attributable morbidity within the framework of the distributed lag model. Results Floods had a significant cumulative association with diarrhoea at the provincial level, but varied by regions and cities. The effects of the floods appeared on the second day after the floods and lasted for 5 days. Floods-diarrhoea relations were modified by three effect modifiers, with stronger flood effects on diarrhoea found in areas with higher air pressure, lower diurnal temperature range, or warmer temperature. Floods were responsible for advancing a fraction of diarrhoea, corresponding to 0.25% within the study period and 0.48% within the flood season. Conclusions The impacts imposed by floods were mainly distributed within the first week. The floods-diarrhoea relations varied by geographic and climatic conditions. The diarrheal burden attributable to floods is currently low in Sichuan, but this figure could increase with the exposure more intensive and the effect modifiers more detrimental in the future. Our findings are expected to provide evidence for the formulation of temporal- and spatial-specific strategies to reduce potential risks of flood-related diarrhoea.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tianjiao Lan
- HEOA Group, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Institute for Healthy Cities and West China Research Center for Rural Health Development, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Yifan Hu
- HEOA Group, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Liangliang Cheng
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Lingwei Chen
- HEOA Group, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Institute for Healthy Cities and West China Research Center for Rural Health Development, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Xujing Guan
- Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, China
| | - Yili Yang
- Institute for Healthy Cities and West China Research Center for Rural Health Development, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Jay Pan
- HEOA Group, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Institute for Healthy Cities and West China Research Center for Rural Health Development, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
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Yang F, Ma Y, Liu F, Zhao X, Fan C, Hu Y, Hu K, Chang Z, Xiao X. Short-term effects of rainfall on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease and related spatial heterogeneity: evidence from 143 cities in mainland China. BMC Public Health 2020; 20:1528. [PMID: 33036602 PMCID: PMC7545871 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-09633-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2020] [Accepted: 09/29/2020] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Numerous studies have demonstrated the potential association between rainfall and hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), but the results are inconsistent. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between rainfall and HFMD based on a multicity study and explore the potential sources of spatial heterogeneity. METHODS We retrieved the daily counts of childhood HFMD and the meteorological variables of the 143 cities in mainland China between 2009 and 2014. A common time series regression model was applied to quantify the association between rainfall and HFMD for each of the 143 cities. Then, we adopted the meta-regression model to pool the city-specific estimates and explore the sources of heterogeneity by incorporating city-specific characteristics. RESULTS The overall pooled estimation suggested a nonlinear exposure-response relationship between rainfall and HFMD. Once rainfall exceeded 15 mm, the HFMD risk stopped increasing linearly and began to plateau with the excessive risk ratio (ERR) peaking at 21 mm of rainfall (ERR = 3.46, 95% CI: 2.05, 4.88). We also found significant heterogeneity in the rainfall-HFMD relationships (I2 = 52.75%, P < 0.001). By incorporating the city-specific characteristics into the meta-regression model, temperature and student density can explain a substantial proportion of spatial heterogeneity with I2 statistics that decreased by 5.29 and 6.80% at most, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Our findings verified the nonlinear association between rainfall and HFMD. The rainfall-HFMD relationship also varies depending on locations. Therefore, the estimation of the rain-HFMD relationship of one location should not be generalized to another location.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fan Yang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 16, Section 3, South Renmin Road, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, PR China
| | - Yue Ma
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 16, Section 3, South Renmin Road, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, PR China
| | - Fengfeng Liu
- Division of Infectious Disease & Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, PR China
| | - Xing Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 16, Section 3, South Renmin Road, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, PR China
| | - Chaonan Fan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 16, Section 3, South Renmin Road, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, PR China
| | - Yifan Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 16, Section 3, South Renmin Road, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, PR China
| | - Kuiru Hu
- Institute of Basic Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Zhaorui Chang
- Division of Infectious Disease & Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, PR China.
| | - Xiong Xiao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 16, Section 3, South Renmin Road, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, PR China.
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Kelly KM, Ferketich AK, Sturm AC, Porter K, Sweet K, Kemp K, Schwirian P, Westman JA. Cancer risk and risk communication in urban, lower-income neighborhoods. Prev Med 2009; 48:392-6. [PMID: 19463493 DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2009.01.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2008] [Revised: 01/16/2009] [Accepted: 01/16/2009] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Family history of cancer is an important risk factor for the disease, and communicating with family and physicians about family history is critical to cancer risk assessment. This study examined cancer risk communication with family and physicians. METHODS A telephone interview was administered to randomly selected participants (n=217) from 5 urban, lower-income communities in 2006 and 2007. A large proportion of the population were minorities and of lower socio-economic status (47% African American, 43% incomes <$25,000). Most (76%) believed family history was important, and approximately half talked to their family (50%) or their physician (49%) about their cancer risk. RESULTS Respondents were equally likely as family members to initiate discussions about cancer risk, but respondents were more likely to initiate discussions with physicians. Logistic regression models were fit to talk to family, talk to physician, and perceived risk. In multivariable analysis, higher income and greater worry were associated with talking to family about risk, and higher income was associated with talking to physician about risk. Gender, family history and worry were associated with greater perceived risk. CONCLUSION Efforts to decrease income barriers to cancer risk communication are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M Kelly
- Human Cancer Genetics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
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