Application of beta regression to analyze ischemic stroke volume in NINDS rt-PA clinical trials

Modulation of the Association Between Corticospinal Tract Damage and Outcome After Stroke by White Matter Hyperintensities

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Motor outcomes after stroke relate to corticospinal tract (CST) damage. The brain leverages surviving neural pathways to compensate for CST damage and mediate motor recovery. Thus, concurrent age-related damage from white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) might affect neurologic capacity for recovery after CST injury. The role of WMHs in post-stroke motor outcomes is unclear. In this study, we evaluated whether WMHs modulate the relationship between CST damage and post-stroke motor outcomes.

METHODS

We used data from the multisite ENIGMA Stroke Recovery Working Group with T1 and T2/fluid-attenuated inversion recovery imaging. CST damage was indexed with weighted CST lesion load (CST-LL). WMH volumes were extracted with Freesurfer's SAMSEG. Mixed-effects beta-regression models were fit to test the impact of CST-LL, WMH volume, and their interaction on motor impairment, controlling for age, days after stroke, and stroke volume.

RESULTS

A total of 223 individuals were included. WMH volume related to motor impairment above and beyond CST-LL (β = 0.178, 95% CI 0.025-0.331, p = 0.022). Relationships varied by WMH severity (mild vs moderate-severe). In individuals with mild WMHs, motor impairment related to CST-LL (β = 0.888, 95% CI 0.604-1.172, p < 0.001) with a CST-LL × WMH interaction (β = -0.211, 95% CI -0.340 to -0.026, p = 0.026). In individuals with moderate-severe WMHs, motor impairment related to WMH volume (β = 0.299, 95% CI 0.008-0.590, p = 0.044), but did not significantly relate to CST-LL or a CST-LL × WMH interaction.

DISCUSSION

WMHs relate to motor outcomes after stroke and modify relationships between motor impairment and CST damage. WMH-related damage may be under-recognized in stroke research as a factor contributing to variability in motor outcomes. Our findings emphasize the importance of brain structural reserve in motor outcomes after brain injury.

White matter hyperintensities modify relationships between corticospinal tract damage and motor outcomes after stroke

Motor outcomes after stroke relate to corticospinal tract (CST) damage. Concurrent damage from white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) might impact neurological capacity for recovery after CST injury. Here, we evaluated if WMHs modulate the relationship between CST damage and post-stroke motor impairment outcome. We included 223 individuals from the ENIGMA Stroke Recovery Working Group. CST damage was indexed with weighted CST lesion load (CST-LL). Mixed effects beta-regression models were fit to test the impact of CST-LL, WMH volume, and their interaction on motor impairment. WMH volume related to motor impairment above and beyond CST-LL (β = 0.178, p = 0.022). We tested if relationships varied by WMH severity (mild vs. moderate-severe). In individuals with mild WMHs, motor impairment related to CST-LL (β = 0.888, p < 0.001) with a CST-LL x WMH interaction (β = -0.211, 0.026). In individuals with moderate-severe WMHs, motor impairment related to WMH volume (β = 0.299, p = 0.044), but did not significantly relate to CST-LL or a CST-LL x WMH interaction. WMH-related damage may be under-recognised in stroke research as a factor contributing to variability in motor outcomes. Our findings emphasize the importance of brain structural reserve in motor outcomes after brain injury.

Rationale and Design of the Groningen Intervention Study for the Preservation of Cardiac Function with Sodium Thiosulfate after St-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (GIPS-IV) trial

BACKGROUND

Ischemia and subsequent reperfusion cause myocardial injury in patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) reduces "ischemia-reperfusion injury" in various experimental animal models, but has not been evaluated in humans. This trial will examine the efficacy and safety of the H₂S-donor sodium thiosulfate (STS) in patients presenting with a STEMI.

STUDY DESIGN

The Groningen Intervention study for the Preservation of cardiac function with STS after STEMI (GIPS-IV) trial (NCT02899364) is a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial, which will enroll 380 patients with a first STEMI. Patients receive STS 12.5 grams intravenously or matching placebo in addition to standard care immediately at arrival at the catheterization laboratory after providing consent. A second dose is administered 6 hours later at the coronary care unit. The primary endpoint is myocardial infarct size as quantified by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging 4 months after randomization. Secondary endpoints include the effect of STS on peak CK-MB during admission and left ventricular ejection fraction and NT-proBNP levels at 4 months follow-up. Patients will be followed-up for 2 years to assess clinical endpoints.

CONCLUSIONS

The GIPS-IV trial is the first study to determine the effect of a H₂S-donor on myocardial infarct size in patients presenting with STEMI.

Bartlett-corrected tests for varying precision beta regressions with application to environmental biometrics

Beta regressions are commonly used with responses that assume values in the standard unit interval, such as rates, proportions and concentration indices. Hypothesis testing inferences on the model parameters are typically performed using the likelihood ratio test. It delivers accurate inferences when the sample size is large, but can otherwise lead to unreliable conclusions. It is thus important to develop alternative tests with superior finite sample behavior. We derive the Bartlett correction to the likelihood ratio test under the more general formulation of the beta regression model, i.e. under varying precision. The model contains two submodels, one for the mean response and a separate one for the precision parameter. Our interest lies in performing testing inferences on the parameters that index both submodels. We use three Bartlett-corrected likelihood ratio test statistics that are expected to yield superior performance when the sample size is small. We present Monte Carlo simulation evidence on the finite sample behavior of the Bartlett-corrected tests relative to the standard likelihood ratio test and to two improved tests that are based on an alternative approach. The numerical evidence shows that one of the Bartlett-corrected typically delivers accurate inferences even when the sample is quite small. An empirical application related to behavioral biometrics is presented and discussed.

Studying the Interplay Between Apolipoprotein E and Education on Cognitive Decline in Centenarians Using Bayesian Beta Regression

Apolipoprotein E (APOE) is an important risk factor for cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease in aging individuals. Among the 3 known alleles of this gene: e2, e3, and e4, the e4 allele is associated with faster cognitive decline and increased risk for Alzheimer's and dementia, while the e2 allele has a positive effect on longevity, and possibly on preservation of cognitive function. Education also has an important effect on cognition and longevity but the interplay between APOE and education is not well-characterized. Previous studies of the effect of APOE on cognitive decline often used linear regression with the normality assumption, which may not be appropriate for analyzing bounded and skewed neuropsychological test scores. In this paper, we applied Bayesian beta regression to assess the effect of APOE alleles on cognitive decline in a cohort of centenarians with longitudinal assessment of their cognitive function. The analysis confirmed the negative association between older age and cognition and the beneficial effect of education that persists even at the extreme of human lifespan in carriers of the e3 allele. In addition, the analysis showed an association between APOE and cognition that is modified by education. Surprisingly, an antagonistic interaction existed between higher education and APOE alleles, suggesting that education may reduce the positive effect of APOE e2 and increase the negative effect of APOE e4 at extreme old age.

Nutlin-3 treatment spares cisplatin-induced inhibition of bone healing while maintaining osteosarcoma toxicity

The majority of Osteosarcoma (OS) patients are treated with a combination of chemotherapy, resection, and limb salvage protocols. These protocols include distraction osteogenesis (DO), which is characterized by direct new bone formation. Cisplatin (CDP) is extensively used for OS chemotherapy and recent studies, using a mouse DO model, have demonstrated that CDP has profound negative effects on bone repair. Recent oncological therapeutic strategies are based on the use of standard cytotoxic drugs plus an assortment of biologic agents. Here we demonstrate that the previously reported CDP-associated inhibition of bone repair can be modulated by the administration of a small molecule p53 inducer (nutlin-3). The effects of nutlin-3 on CDP osteotoxicity were studied using both pre- and post-operative treatment models. In both cases the addition of nutlin-3, bracketing CDP exposure, demonstrated robust and significant bone sparing activity (p < 0.01-0.001). In addition the combination of nutlin-3 and CDP induced equivalent OS tumor killing in a xenograft model. Collectively, these results demonstrate that the induction of p53 peri-operatively protects bone healing from the toxic effects of CDP, while maintaining OS toxicity. © 2016 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 34:1716-1724, 2016.

Tracking the changes in synchrony of the electrophysiological activity as the uterus approaches labor using magnetomyographic technique

The objective of the study was to perform serial magnetomyographic examinations in order to detect changes in synchrony characteristics of myometrial electrophysiological activity as women approach labor. Of the total of 56 patients recruited, the results of 149 examinations from 29 patients were included in the analysis. The global synchrony across each sensor spread over the abdomen was computed and quantified as synchronization index. The mean and the median value of the global synchrony were computed and correlated with time to active labor from the last recording. Overall, synchrony increased as the patient approached active labor (P = .035). Furthermore, mean synchronization index increased twice as fast in the nonnulliparous group compared to the nulliparous group (P = .039). The changes in synchrony of uterine electrophysiological activity near term could aid in prediction of labor.

Thrombolysis for acute ischaemic stroke

BACKGROUND

Most strokes are due to blockage of an artery in the brain by a blood clot. Prompt treatment with thrombolytic drugs can restore blood flow before major brain damage has occurred and improve recovery after stroke in some people. Thrombolytic drugs, however, can also cause serious bleeding in the brain, which can be fatal. One drug, recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA), is licensed for use in selected patients within 4.5 hours of stroke in Europe and within three hours in the USA. There is an upper age limit of 80 years in some countries, and a limitation to mainly non-severe stroke in others. Forty per cent more data are available since this review was last updated in 2009.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether, and in what circumstances, thrombolytic therapy might be an effective and safe treatment for acute ischaemic stroke.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group Trials Register (last searched November 2013), MEDLINE (1966 to November 2013) and EMBASE (1980 to November 2013). We also handsearched conference proceedings and journals, searched reference lists and contacted pharmaceutical companies and trialists.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised trials of any thrombolytic agent compared with control in people with definite ischaemic stroke.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors applied the inclusion criteria, extracted data and assessed trial quality. We verified the extracted data with investigators of all major trials, obtaining additional unpublished data if available.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 27 trials, involving 10,187 participants, testing urokinase, streptokinase, rt-PA, recombinant pro-urokinase or desmoteplase. Four trials used intra-arterial administration, while the rest used the intravenous route. Most data come from trials that started treatment up to six hours after stroke. About 44% of the trials (about 70% of the participants) were testing intravenous rt-PA. In earlier studies very few of the participants (0.5%) were aged over 80 years; in this update, 16% of participants are over 80 years of age due to the inclusion of IST-3 (53% of participants in this trial were aged over 80 years). Trials published more recently utilised computerised randomisation, so there are less likely to be baseline imbalances than in previous versions of the review. More than 50% of trials fulfilled criteria for high-grade concealment; there were few losses to follow-up for the main outcomes.Thrombolytic therapy, mostly administered up to six hours after ischaemic stroke, significantly reduced the proportion of participants who were dead or dependent (modified Rankin 3 to 6) at three to six months after stroke (odds ratio (OR) 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 0.93). Thrombolytic therapy increased the risk of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (OR 3.75, 95% CI 3.11 to 4.51), early death (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.44 to 1.98; 13 trials, 7458 participants) and death by three to six months after stroke (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.30). Early death after thrombolysis was mostly attributable to intracranial haemorrhage. Treatment within three hours of stroke was more effective in reducing death or dependency (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.79) without any increase in death (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.21; 11 trials, 2187 participants). There was heterogeneity between the trials. Contemporaneous antithrombotic drugs increased the risk of death. Trials testing rt-PA showed a significant reduction in death or dependency with treatment up to six hours (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.93, P = 0.0006; 8 trials, 6729 participants) with significant heterogeneity; treatment within three hours was more beneficial (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.80, P < 0.0001; 6 trials, 1779 participants) without heterogeneity. Participants aged over 80 years benefited equally to those aged under 80 years, particularly if treated within three hours of stroke.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Thrombolytic therapy given up to six hours after stroke reduces the proportion of dead or dependent people. Those treated within the first three hours derive substantially more benefit than with later treatment. This overall benefit was apparent despite an increase in symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage, deaths at seven to 10 days, and deaths at final follow-up (except for trials testing rt-PA, which had no effect on death at final follow-up). Further trials are needed to identify the latest time window, whether people with mild stroke benefit from thrombolysis, to find ways of reducing symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage and deaths, and to identify the environment in which thrombolysis may best be given in routine practice.

Cisplatin inhibits bone healing during distraction osteogenesis

Osteosarcoma (OS) is the most common malignant bone tumor affecting children and adolescents. Many patients are treated with a combination of chemotherapy, resection, and limb salvage protocols. Surgical reconstructions after tumor resection include structural allografts, non-cemented endoprostheses, and distraction osteogenesis (DO), which require direct bone formation. Although cisplatin (CDP) is extensively used for OS chemotherapy, the effects on bone regeneration are not well studied. The effects of CDP on direct bone formation in DO were compared using two dosing regimens and both C57BL/6 (B6) and tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 knockout (TNFR1KO) mice, as CDP toxicity is associated with elevated TNF levels. Detailed evaluation of the five-dose CDP regimen (2 mg/kg/day), demonstrated significant decreases in new bone formation in the DO gaps of CDP treated versus vehicle treated mice (p < 0.001). Further, no significant inhibitory effects from the five-dose CDP regimen were observed in TNFR1KO mice. The two-dose regimen significantly inhibited new bone formation in B6 mice. These results demonstrate that CDP has profound short term negative effects on the process of bone repair in DO. These data provide the mechanistic basis for modeling peri-operative chemotherapy doses and schedules and may provide new opportunities to identify molecules that spare normal cells from the inhibitory effects of CDP.

A Monte Carlo simulation study comparing linear regression, beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression at recovering average difference measures in a two sample design

Background

In biomedical research, response variables are often encountered which have bounded support on the open unit interval - (0,1). Traditionally, researchers have attempted to estimate covariate effects on these types of response data using linear regression. Alternative modelling strategies may include: beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. This study employs a Monte Carlo simulation design to compare the statistical properties of the linear regression model to that of the more novel beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models.

Methods

In the Monte Carlo experiment we assume a simple two sample design. We assume observations are realizations of independent draws from their respective probability models. The randomly simulated draws from the various probability models are chosen to emulate average proportion/percentage/rate differences of pre-specified magnitudes. Following simulation of the experimental data we estimate average proportion/percentage/rate differences. We compare the estimators in terms of bias, variance, type-1 error and power. Estimates of Monte Carlo error associated with these quantities are provided.

Results

If response data are beta distributed with constant dispersion parameters across the two samples, then all models are unbiased and have reasonable type-1 error rates and power profiles. If the response data in the two samples have different dispersion parameters, then the simple beta regression model is biased. When the sample size is small (N₀ = N₁ = 25) linear regression has superior type-1 error rates compared to the other models. Small sample type-1 error rates can be improved in beta regression models using bias correction/reduction methods. In the power experiments, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression models have slightly elevated power compared to linear regression models. Similar results were observed if the response data are generated from a discrete multinomial distribution with support on (0,1).

Conclusions

The linear regression model, the variable-dispersion beta regression model and the fractional logit regression model all perform well across the simulation experiments under consideration. When employing beta regression to estimate covariate effects on (0,1) response data, researchers should ensure their dispersion sub-model is properly specified, else inferential errors could arise.

Multi-tiered analysis of brain injury in neonates with congenital heart disease

Early brain injury occurs in newborns with congenital heart disease (CHD) placing them at risk for impaired neurodevelopmental outcomes. Predictors for preoperative brain injury have not been well described in CHD newborns. This study aimed to analyze, retrospectively, brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a heterogeneous group of newborns who had CHD surgery during the first month of life using a detailed qualitative CHD MRI Injury Score, quantitative imaging assessments (regional apparent diffusion coefficient [ADC] values and brain volumes), and clinical characteristics. Seventy-three newborns who had CHD surgery at 8 ± 5 (mean ± SD) days of life and preoperative brain MRI were included; 38 also had postoperative MRI. Thirty-four (34 of 73, 47 %) had at least one type of preoperative brain injury, and 28 of 38 (74 %) had postoperative brain injury. The 5-min APGAR score was negatively associated with preoperative injury, but there was no difference between CHD types. Infants with intraparenchymal hemorrhage, deep gray matter injury, and/or watershed infarcts had the highest CHD MRI Injury Scores. ADC values and brain volumes were not different in infants with different CHD types or in those with and without brain injury. In a mixed group of CHD newborns, brain injury was found preoperatively on MRI in almost 50 %, and there were no significant baseline characteristic differences to predict this early brain injury except 5-min APGAR score. We conclude that all infants, regardless of CHD type, who require early surgery should be evaluated with MRI because they are all at high risk for brain injury.