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Chirra P, Sharma A, Bera K, Cohn HM, Kurowski JA, Amann K, Rivero MJ, Madabhushi A, Lu C, Paspulati R, Stein SL, Katz JA, Viswanath SE, Dave M. Integrating Radiomics With Clinicoradiological Scoring Can Predict High-Risk Patients Who Need Surgery in Crohn's Disease: A Pilot Study. Inflamm Bowel Dis 2023; 29:349-358. [PMID: 36250776 PMCID: PMC9977224 DOI: 10.1093/ibd/izac211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/09/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Early identification of Crohn's disease (CD) patients at risk for complications could enable targeted surgical referral, but routine magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) has not been definitively correlated with need for surgery. Our objective was to identify computer-extracted image (radiomic) features from MRE associated with risk of surgery in CD and combine them with clinical and radiological assessments to predict time to intervention. METHODS This was a retrospective single-center pilot study of CD patients who had an MRE within 3 months prior to initiating medical therapy. Radiomic features were extracted from annotated terminal ileum regions on MRE and combined with clinical variables and radiological assessment (via Simplified Magnetic Resonance Index of Activity scoring for wall thickening, edema, fat stranding, ulcers) in a random forest classifier. The primary endpoint was high- and low-risk groups based on need for surgery within 1 year of MRE. The secondary endpoint was time to surgery after treatment. RESULTS Eight radiomic features capturing localized texture heterogeneity within the terminal ileum were significantly associated with risk of surgery within 1 year of treatment (P < .05); yielding a discovery cohort area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.67 (n = 50) and validation cohort area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.74 (n = 23). Kaplan-Meier analysis of radiomic features together with clinical variables and Simplified Magnetic Resonance Index of Activity scores yielded the best hazard ratio of 4.13 (P = (7.6 × 10-6) and concordance index of 0.71 in predicting time to surgery after MRE. CONCLUSIONS Radiomic features on MRE may be associated with risk of surgery in CD, and in combination with clinicoradiological scoring can yield an accurate prognostic model for time to surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Prathyush Chirra
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Anamay Sharma
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Kaustav Bera
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA
- Department of Radiology, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - H Matthew Cohn
- Long Island Digestive Disease Consultants, Northwell Health Physician Partners, Setauket, NY, USA
| | - Jacob A Kurowski
- Department of Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Katelin Amann
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Marco-Jose Rivero
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Anant Madabhushi
- Wallace H. Coulter Department of Biomedical Engineering, Radiology and Imaging Sciences, Biomedical Informatics (BMI) and Pathology, Georgia Institute of Technology and Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Research Health Scientist, Atlanta Veterans Administration Medical Center, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Cheng Lu
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Rajmohan Paspulati
- Department of Radiology, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Sharon L Stein
- Department of General Surgery, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Cleveland, OH, USAand
| | - Jeffrey A Katz
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Satish E Viswanath
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Maneesh Dave
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Cleveland, OH, USA
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, UC Davis Medical Center, UC Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento, CA, USA
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Ferretti F, Cannatelli R, Monico MC, Maconi G, Ardizzone S. An Update on Current Pharmacotherapeutic Options for the Treatment of Ulcerative Colitis. J Clin Med 2022; 11:jcm11092302. [PMID: 35566428 PMCID: PMC9104748 DOI: 10.3390/jcm11092302] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2022] [Revised: 04/10/2022] [Accepted: 04/18/2022] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The main goals of Ulcerative Colitis (UC) treatment are to both induce and maintain the clinical and endoscopic remission of disease, reduce the incidence of complications such as dysplasia and colorectal carcinoma and improve quality of life. Although a curative medical treatment for UC has not yet been found, new therapeutic strategies addressing specific pathogenetic mechanisms of disease are emerging. Notwithstanding these novel therapies, non-biological conventional drugs remain a mainstay of treatment. The aim of this review is to summarize current therapeutic strategies used as treatment for ulcerative colitis and to briefly focus on emerging therapeutic strategies, including novel biologic therapies and small molecules. To date, multiple therapeutic approaches can be adopted in UC and the range of available compounds is constantly increasing. In this era, the realization of well-designed comparative clinical trials, as well as the definition of specific therapeutic models, would be strongly suggested in order to achieve personalized management for UC patients.
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Berg DR, Colombel JF, Ungaro R. The Role of Early Biologic Therapy in Inflammatory Bowel Disease. Inflamm Bowel Dis 2019; 25:1896-1905. [PMID: 30934053 PMCID: PMC7185690 DOI: 10.1093/ibd/izz059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 125] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2018] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
The goals for treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) are changing from elimination of symptoms toward complete disease control-a process that demands both clinical and endoscopic remission. This new IBD treatment paradigm has been shifting from a conventional "step-up" approach toward a more "top-down" early intervention treatment strategy. Recent studies suggest that the use of biologic agents, specifically those targeting tumor necrosis factor alpha, earlier in the treatment course improves patient outcomes and can prevent progression to irreversible bowel damage. Although the strategy of early intervention has accumulating evidence in Crohn's disease, there is less evidence supporting its impact in ulcerative colitis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dana Rachel Berg
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease Center, Division of Gastroenterology, NYU Langone Health, New York, New York, USA
| | - Jean-Frederic Colombel
- Henry D. Janowitz Division of Gastroenterology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
| | - Ryan Ungaro
- Henry D. Janowitz Division of Gastroenterology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA,Address correspondence to: Ryan Ungaro, MD, MS, 17 East 102nd Street 5th floor, New York, NY 10029 ()
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Bossuyt P, Debeuckelaere C, Ferrante M, de Buck van Overstraeten A, Vanbeckevoort D, Billiet T, Wolthuis A, Cleynen I, Van Assche G, D'Hoore A, Vermeire S. Risk Stratification for Surgery in Stricturing Ileal Crohn's Disease: The BACARDI Risk Model. J Crohns Colitis 2018; 12:32-38. [PMID: 28981768 DOI: 10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjx110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2016] [Accepted: 08/01/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Transmural inflammation in Crohn's disease [CD] leads to stricturing or penetrating complications. Factors impacting on the need and timing of surgery in ileal stricturing CD [IS-CD] are understudied. Our aim was to identify risk factors in IS-CD associated with the need for surgery over time. METHODS All cross-sectional imaging [XSI] performed for CD between 2006 and 2015 in a tertiary referral centre was analysed. The electronic charts of patients with IS-CD were reviewed for demographic, clinical, biochemical, imaging, genetic, and endoscopic factors. An independent cohort was used for validation. RESULTS A total of 1803 XSI were performed in 957 patients with CD. IS-CD was diagnosed in 235 patients, and 161 of these [69%] needed surgery. Prestenotic dilation (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-3.45, p = 0.007], C-reactive protein at diagnosis of IS-CD > 11 mg/L [HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.05-2.24, p = 0.026], Montreal B3 phenotype [HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36, p = 0.023], previous/current anti-tumour necrosis factor [TNF] exposure [HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.00-2.06, p = 0.048], and presence of at least one NOD2 rs2066844 risk allele [HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.02-2.23, p = 0.038] significantly impacted on the need for surgery in multivariate analysis. The risk stratification model [BACARDI] yielded a surgery-free survival after 5 years of 77%, 38%,19%, and 0% for the low, medium, high, and all risk groups, respectively. Based on an independent cohort of 27 patients, the results were validated and demonstrated adequate performance. CONCLUSIONS This risk model can facilitate therapeutic decisions in IS-CD and suggest the correct time for surgery in daily clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Bossuyt
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.,Department of Gastroenterology, Imelda General Hospital, Bonheiden, Belgium
| | - Celine Debeuckelaere
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Marc Ferrante
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | | | | | - Thomas Billiet
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Albert Wolthuis
- Department of Radiology, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | | | - Gert Van Assche
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Andre D'Hoore
- Department of Radiology, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Séverine Vermeire
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
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Wędrychowicz A, Tomasik P, Zając A, Fyderek K. Prognostic value of assessment of stool and serum IL-1β, IL-1ra and IL-6 concentrations in children with active and inactive ulcerative colitis. Arch Med Sci 2018; 14:107-114. [PMID: 29379540 PMCID: PMC5778426 DOI: 10.5114/aoms.2017.68696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2017] [Accepted: 06/05/2017] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) contribute to the pathogenesis of ulcerative colitis (UC). The aim of our study was to evaluate the serum and stool IL-1β, IL-1ra and IL-6 concentrations as potential prognostic factors in children with UC. MATERIAL AND METHODS Thirty-eight children with UC (20 active, 18 inactive) and 14 healthy controls were prospectively included in the study. IL-1β, IL-1ra and IL-6 concentrations were measured in serum and stool supernatants at inclusion to the study using ELISA immunoassays. The children were followed up over 5 years, and at each follow-up clinical disease activity, quantity and severity of relapses, nutritional status, endoscopic and histopathologic activity, disease complications and the treatment regimen were evaluated. RESULTS In children with active and inactive UC who had relapsed during a 5-year follow-up period compared to the non-relapse groups we found significantly increased serum IL-1β (1.34 vs. 0.98 pg/ml, p < 0.05, and 1.02 vs. 0.68 pg/ml, p < 0.01, respectively,) and IL-1ra (718.0 vs. 453.2 pg/ml, p < 0.05, and 567.4 vs. 365.1 pg/ml, p < 0.01, respectively). Additionally, in children who had experienced complications during a 5-year follow-up period we observed significantly increased serum and stool IL-1β (p < 0.05) and serum IL-1ra (p < 0.01) compared to the group without complications. CONCLUSIONS We concluded that serum IL-1β and IL-1ra and to a lesser extend stool IL-1β concentrations may be useful prognostic factors in children with active and inactive UC over a short-term follow-up period, which may help to identify children that require more aggressive therapy due to an increased risk of relapse or complications resulting from UC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrzej Wędrychowicz
- Department of Pediatrics, Gastroenterology and Nutrition, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland
| | - Przemysław Tomasik
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland
| | - Andrzej Zając
- Department of Pediatric Surgery, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland
| | - Krzysztof Fyderek
- Department of Pediatrics, Gastroenterology and Nutrition, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland
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Guizzetti L, Zou G, Khanna R, Dulai PS, Sandborn WJ, Jairath V, Feagan BG. Development of Clinical Prediction Models for Surgery and Complications in Crohn's Disease. J Crohns Colitis 2018; 12:167-177. [PMID: 29028958 PMCID: PMC5881746 DOI: 10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjx130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2017] [Accepted: 09/15/2017] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Crohn's disease-related complications account for a substantial proportion of inflammatory bowel disease-associated health care expenditure. Identifying patients at risk for complications may allow for targeted use of early therapeutic interventions to offset this natural course. We aimed to develop risk prediction models for Crohn's disease-related surgery and complications. METHODS Using data from the Randomised Evaluation of an Algorithm for Crohn's Disease cluster-randomised clinical Trial [REACT], which involved 1898 patients from 40 community practices, separate prediction models were derived and internally validated for predicting Crohn's disease-related surgery and disease-related complications [defined as the first disease-related surgery, hospitalisation, or complication within 24 months]. Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration, decision curves, and net benefit analyses. RESULTS There were 130 [6.8%] disease-related surgeries and 504 [26.6%] complications during the 24-month follow-up period. Selected baseline predictors of surgery included age, gender, disease location, Harvey-Bradshaw Index [HBI] score, stool frequency, antimetabolite or 5-aminosalicylate use, and the presence of a fistula, abscess, or abdominal mass. Selected predictors of complications included those same factors for surgery, plus corticosteroid or anti-tumour necrosis factor use, but excluded 5-aminosalicylate use. Discrimination ability, as measured by validated c-statistics, was 0.70 and 0.62 for the surgery and complication models, respectively. Score charts and nomograms were developed to facilitate future risk score calculation. CONCLUSIONS Separate risk prediction models for Crohn's disease-related surgery and complications were developed using clinical trial data involving community gastroenterology practices. These models could be used to guide Crohn's disease management. External validation is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leonardo Guizzetti
- Robarts Clinical Trials Inc., University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada
| | - Guangyong Zou
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada,Robarts Clinical Trials Inc., University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada
| | - Reena Khanna
- Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada,Robarts Clinical Trials Inc., University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada
| | - Parambir S Dulai
- Division of Gastroenterology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - William J Sandborn
- Robarts Clinical Trials Inc., University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada,Division of Gastroenterology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Vipul Jairath
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada,Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada,Robarts Clinical Trials Inc., University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada
| | - Brian G Feagan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada,Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada,Robarts Clinical Trials Inc., University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada,Corresponding author: Brian G. Feagan, MD, Robarts Clinical Trials Inc., 100 Dundas Street, Suite 200, London, ON, Canada N6A 5B6. Tel.: 226-270-7675; fax: 519-931-5278;
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7
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Cesarini M, Collins GS, Rönnblom A, Santos A, Wang LM, Sjöberg D, Parkes M, Keshav S, Travis SPL. Predicting the Individual Risk of Acute Severe Colitis at Diagnosis. J Crohns Colitis 2017; 11:335-341. [PMID: 27647858 PMCID: PMC5881607 DOI: 10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjw159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2016] [Accepted: 09/17/2016] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Acute severe colitis [ASC] is associated with major morbidity. We aimed to develop and externally validate an index that predicted ASC within 3 years of diagnosis. METHODS The development cohort included patients aged 16-89 years, diagnosed with ulcerative colitis [UC] in Oxford and followed for 3 years. Primary outcome was hospitalization for ASC, excluding patients admitted within 1 month of diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression examined the adjusted association of seven risk factors with ASC. Backwards elimination produced a parsimonious model that was simplified to create an easy-to-use index. External validation occurred in separate cohorts from Cambridge, UK, and Uppsala, Sweden. RESULTS The development cohort [Oxford] included 34/111 patients who developed ASC within a median 14 months [range 1-29]. The final model applied the sum of 1 point each for extensive disease, C-reactive protein [CRP] > 10mg/l, or haemoglobin < 12g/dl F or < 14g/dl M at diagnosis, to give a score from 0/3 to 3/3. This predicted a 70% risk of developing ASC within 3 years [score 3/3]. Validation cohorts included different proportions with ASC [Cambridge = 25/96; Uppsala = 18/298]. Of those scoring 3/3 at diagnosis, 18/18 [Cambridge] and 12/13 [Uppsala] subsequently developed ASC. Discriminant ability [c-index, where 1.0 = perfect discrimination] was 0.81 [Oxford], 0.95 [Cambridge], 0.97 [Uppsala]. Internal validation using bootstrapping showed good calibration, with similar predicted risk across all cohorts. A nomogram predicted individual risk. CONCLUSIONS An index applied at diagnosis reliably predicts the risk of ASC within 3 years in different populations. Patients with a score 3/3 at diagnosis may merit early immunomodulator therapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Monica Cesarini
- Translational Gastroenterology Unit, Oxford University Hospitals, Oxford, UK,Dipartimento di Medicina Interna e Specialità Mediche, ‘Sapienza’, University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Gary S. Collins
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Anders Rönnblom
- Department of Medical Sciences, Gastroenterology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Antonieta Santos
- Gastroenterology Unit, Cambridge University Hospitals, Cambridge, UK,Gastroenterology Unit, Hospital Amato Lusitano, Castelo Branco, Portugal
| | - Lai Mun Wang
- Department of Cellular Pathology, Oxford University Hospitals, Oxford, UK
| | - Daniel Sjöberg
- Department of Medical Sciences, Gastroenterology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Miles Parkes
- Gastroenterology Unit, Cambridge University Hospitals, Cambridge, UK
| | - Satish Keshav
- Translational Gastroenterology Unit, Oxford University Hospitals, Oxford, UK
| | - Simon P. L. Travis
- Translational Gastroenterology Unit, Oxford University Hospitals, Oxford, UK
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Abstract
OPINION STATEMENT With the expanding armamentarium in IBD the current treatment targets can be reached. By optimally using our drugs we can avoid long-term complications in IBD. For this the therapeutic strategy has to be changed from a clinically driven approach to a target-driven strategy. Currently mucosal healing, normalization of biomarkers, histological healing, and healing on abdominal imaging are proposed targets. Correct phenotyping of the patient before initiation of therapy is mandatory. Once treatment is initiated a continuous re-evaluation with consequent adaptation of the treatment when goals are not (yet) reached is needed. Both escalation and de-escalation should be considered. Drug levels can be used as a guidance to reach these targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Bossuyt
- Department of Gastroenterology, University Hospitals Leuven, KULeuven-University of Leuven, Herestraat 49, 3000, Leuven, Belgium.,Department of Gastroenterology, Imelda GI Clinical Research Centre, Imelda ziekenhuis, Bonheiden, Belgium
| | - Séverine Vermeire
- Department of Gastroenterology, University Hospitals Leuven, KULeuven-University of Leuven, Herestraat 49, 3000, Leuven, Belgium.
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9
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Siegel CA, Horton H, Siegel LS, Thompson KD, Mackenzie T, Stewart SK, Rice PW, Stempak JM, Dezfoli S, Haritunians T, Levy A, Baek M, Milgrom R, Dulai PS, Targan SR, Silverberg MS, Dubinsky MC, McGovern DP. A validated web-based tool to display individualised Crohn's disease predicted outcomes based on clinical, serologic and genetic variables. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2016; 43:262-71. [PMID: 26567467 DOI: 10.1111/apt.13460] [Citation(s) in RCA: 89] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2015] [Revised: 08/25/2015] [Accepted: 10/11/2015] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Early treatment for Crohn's disease (CD) with immunomodulators and/or anti-TNF agents improves outcomes in comparison to a slower 'step up' algorithm. However, there remains a limited ability to identify those who would benefit most from early intensive therapy. AIM To develop a validated, individualised, web-based tool for patients and clinicians to visualise individualised risks for developing Crohn's disease complications. METHODS A well-characterised cohort of adult patients with CD was analysed. Available data included: demographics; clinical characteristics; serologic immune responses; NOD2 status; time from diagnosis to complication; and medication exposure. Cox proportional analyses were performed to model the probability of developing a CD complication over time. The Cox model was validated externally in two independent CD cohorts. Using system dynamics analysis (SDA), these results were transformed into a simple graphical web-based display to show patients their individualised probability of developing a complication over a 3-year period. RESULTS Two hundered and forty three CD patients were included in the final model of which 142 experienced a complication. Significant variables in the multivariate Cox model included small bowel disease (HR 2.12, CI 1.05-4.29), left colonic disease (HR 0.73, CI 0.49-1.09), perianal disease (HR 4.12, CI 1.01-16.88), ASCA (HR 1.35, CI 1.16-1.58), Cbir (HR 1.29, CI 1.07-1.55), ANCA (HR 0.77, CI 0.62-0.95), and the NOD2 frameshift mutation/SNP13 (HR 2.13, CI 1.33-3.40). The Harrell's C (concordance index for predictive accuracy of the model) = 0.73. When applied to the two external validation cohorts (adult n = 109, pediatric n = 392), the concordance index was 0.73 and 0.75, respectively, for adult and pediatric patients. CONCLUSIONS A validated, web-based tool has been developed to display an individualised predicted outcome for adult patients with Crohn's disease based on clinical, serologic and genetic variables. This tool can be used to help providers and patients make personalised decisions about treatment options.
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Affiliation(s)
- C A Siegel
- Dartmouth-Hitchcock Inflammatory Bowel Disease Center, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, USA.,Department of Medicine, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA
| | - H Horton
- F. Widjaja Foundation Inflammatory Bowel and Immunobiology Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - L S Siegel
- Siegel Environmental Dynamics, Hanover, NH, USA.,Climate Interactive, Washington, DC, USA
| | - K D Thompson
- Dartmouth-Hitchcock Inflammatory Bowel Disease Center, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, USA.,Department of Medicine, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA
| | - T Mackenzie
- Department of Medicine, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA
| | - S K Stewart
- Dartmouth-Hitchcock Inflammatory Bowel Disease Center, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, USA
| | - P W Rice
- Climate Interactive, Washington, DC, USA
| | - J M Stempak
- Zane Cohen Centre for Digestive Diseases, Division of Gastroenterology, Mount Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - S Dezfoli
- F. Widjaja Foundation Inflammatory Bowel and Immunobiology Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - T Haritunians
- F. Widjaja Foundation Inflammatory Bowel and Immunobiology Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - A Levy
- F. Widjaja Foundation Inflammatory Bowel and Immunobiology Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - M Baek
- F. Widjaja Foundation Inflammatory Bowel and Immunobiology Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - R Milgrom
- Zane Cohen Centre for Digestive Diseases, Division of Gastroenterology, Mount Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - P S Dulai
- Dartmouth-Hitchcock Inflammatory Bowel Disease Center, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, USA.,Department of Medicine, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA
| | - S R Targan
- F. Widjaja Foundation Inflammatory Bowel and Immunobiology Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - M S Silverberg
- Zane Cohen Centre for Digestive Diseases, Division of Gastroenterology, Mount Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - M C Dubinsky
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - D P McGovern
- F. Widjaja Foundation Inflammatory Bowel and Immunobiology Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
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