Can we predict the high-risk patient?

Integrating Radiomics With Clinicoradiological Scoring Can Predict High-Risk Patients Who Need Surgery in Crohn's Disease: A Pilot Study

BACKGROUND

Early identification of Crohn's disease (CD) patients at risk for complications could enable targeted surgical referral, but routine magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) has not been definitively correlated with need for surgery. Our objective was to identify computer-extracted image (radiomic) features from MRE associated with risk of surgery in CD and combine them with clinical and radiological assessments to predict time to intervention.

METHODS

This was a retrospective single-center pilot study of CD patients who had an MRE within 3 months prior to initiating medical therapy. Radiomic features were extracted from annotated terminal ileum regions on MRE and combined with clinical variables and radiological assessment (via Simplified Magnetic Resonance Index of Activity scoring for wall thickening, edema, fat stranding, ulcers) in a random forest classifier. The primary endpoint was high- and low-risk groups based on need for surgery within 1 year of MRE. The secondary endpoint was time to surgery after treatment.

RESULTS

Eight radiomic features capturing localized texture heterogeneity within the terminal ileum were significantly associated with risk of surgery within 1 year of treatment (P < .05); yielding a discovery cohort area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.67 (n = 50) and validation cohort area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.74 (n = 23). Kaplan-Meier analysis of radiomic features together with clinical variables and Simplified Magnetic Resonance Index of Activity scores yielded the best hazard ratio of 4.13 (P = (7.6 × 10-6) and concordance index of 0.71 in predicting time to surgery after MRE.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiomic features on MRE may be associated with risk of surgery in CD, and in combination with clinicoradiological scoring can yield an accurate prognostic model for time to surgery.

An Update on Current Pharmacotherapeutic Options for the Treatment of Ulcerative Colitis

The main goals of Ulcerative Colitis (UC) treatment are to both induce and maintain the clinical and endoscopic remission of disease, reduce the incidence of complications such as dysplasia and colorectal carcinoma and improve quality of life. Although a curative medical treatment for UC has not yet been found, new therapeutic strategies addressing specific pathogenetic mechanisms of disease are emerging. Notwithstanding these novel therapies, non-biological conventional drugs remain a mainstay of treatment. The aim of this review is to summarize current therapeutic strategies used as treatment for ulcerative colitis and to briefly focus on emerging therapeutic strategies, including novel biologic therapies and small molecules. To date, multiple therapeutic approaches can be adopted in UC and the range of available compounds is constantly increasing. In this era, the realization of well-designed comparative clinical trials, as well as the definition of specific therapeutic models, would be strongly suggested in order to achieve personalized management for UC patients.

The Role of Early Biologic Therapy in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

The goals for treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) are changing from elimination of symptoms toward complete disease control-a process that demands both clinical and endoscopic remission. This new IBD treatment paradigm has been shifting from a conventional "step-up" approach toward a more "top-down" early intervention treatment strategy. Recent studies suggest that the use of biologic agents, specifically those targeting tumor necrosis factor alpha, earlier in the treatment course improves patient outcomes and can prevent progression to irreversible bowel damage. Although the strategy of early intervention has accumulating evidence in Crohn's disease, there is less evidence supporting its impact in ulcerative colitis.

Risk Stratification for Surgery in Stricturing Ileal Crohn's Disease: The BACARDI Risk Model

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Transmural inflammation in Crohn's disease [CD] leads to stricturing or penetrating complications. Factors impacting on the need and timing of surgery in ileal stricturing CD [IS-CD] are understudied. Our aim was to identify risk factors in IS-CD associated with the need for surgery over time.

METHODS

All cross-sectional imaging [XSI] performed for CD between 2006 and 2015 in a tertiary referral centre was analysed. The electronic charts of patients with IS-CD were reviewed for demographic, clinical, biochemical, imaging, genetic, and endoscopic factors. An independent cohort was used for validation.

RESULTS

A total of 1803 XSI were performed in 957 patients with CD. IS-CD was diagnosed in 235 patients, and 161 of these [69%] needed surgery. Prestenotic dilation (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-3.45, p = 0.007], C-reactive protein at diagnosis of IS-CD > 11 mg/L [HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.05-2.24, p = 0.026], Montreal B3 phenotype [HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36, p = 0.023], previous/current anti-tumour necrosis factor [TNF] exposure [HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.00-2.06, p = 0.048], and presence of at least one NOD2 rs2066844 risk allele [HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.02-2.23, p = 0.038] significantly impacted on the need for surgery in multivariate analysis. The risk stratification model [BACARDI] yielded a surgery-free survival after 5 years of 77%, 38%,19%, and 0% for the low, medium, high, and all risk groups, respectively. Based on an independent cohort of 27 patients, the results were validated and demonstrated adequate performance.

CONCLUSIONS

This risk model can facilitate therapeutic decisions in IS-CD and suggest the correct time for surgery in daily clinical practice.

Prognostic value of assessment of stool and serum IL-1β, IL-1ra and IL-6 concentrations in children with active and inactive ulcerative colitis

INTRODUCTION

Interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) contribute to the pathogenesis of ulcerative colitis (UC). The aim of our study was to evaluate the serum and stool IL-1β, IL-1ra and IL-6 concentrations as potential prognostic factors in children with UC.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Thirty-eight children with UC (20 active, 18 inactive) and 14 healthy controls were prospectively included in the study. IL-1β, IL-1ra and IL-6 concentrations were measured in serum and stool supernatants at inclusion to the study using ELISA immunoassays. The children were followed up over 5 years, and at each follow-up clinical disease activity, quantity and severity of relapses, nutritional status, endoscopic and histopathologic activity, disease complications and the treatment regimen were evaluated.

RESULTS

In children with active and inactive UC who had relapsed during a 5-year follow-up period compared to the non-relapse groups we found significantly increased serum IL-1β (1.34 vs. 0.98 pg/ml, p < 0.05, and 1.02 vs. 0.68 pg/ml, p < 0.01, respectively,) and IL-1ra (718.0 vs. 453.2 pg/ml, p < 0.05, and 567.4 vs. 365.1 pg/ml, p < 0.01, respectively). Additionally, in children who had experienced complications during a 5-year follow-up period we observed significantly increased serum and stool IL-1β (p < 0.05) and serum IL-1ra (p < 0.01) compared to the group without complications.

CONCLUSIONS

We concluded that serum IL-1β and IL-1ra and to a lesser extend stool IL-1β concentrations may be useful prognostic factors in children with active and inactive UC over a short-term follow-up period, which may help to identify children that require more aggressive therapy due to an increased risk of relapse or complications resulting from UC.

Development of Clinical Prediction Models for Surgery and Complications in Crohn's Disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Crohn's disease-related complications account for a substantial proportion of inflammatory bowel disease-associated health care expenditure. Identifying patients at risk for complications may allow for targeted use of early therapeutic interventions to offset this natural course. We aimed to develop risk prediction models for Crohn's disease-related surgery and complications.

METHODS

Using data from the Randomised Evaluation of an Algorithm for Crohn's Disease cluster-randomised clinical Trial [REACT], which involved 1898 patients from 40 community practices, separate prediction models were derived and internally validated for predicting Crohn's disease-related surgery and disease-related complications [defined as the first disease-related surgery, hospitalisation, or complication within 24 months]. Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration, decision curves, and net benefit analyses.

RESULTS

There were 130 [6.8%] disease-related surgeries and 504 [26.6%] complications during the 24-month follow-up period. Selected baseline predictors of surgery included age, gender, disease location, Harvey-Bradshaw Index [HBI] score, stool frequency, antimetabolite or 5-aminosalicylate use, and the presence of a fistula, abscess, or abdominal mass. Selected predictors of complications included those same factors for surgery, plus corticosteroid or anti-tumour necrosis factor use, but excluded 5-aminosalicylate use. Discrimination ability, as measured by validated c-statistics, was 0.70 and 0.62 for the surgery and complication models, respectively. Score charts and nomograms were developed to facilitate future risk score calculation.

CONCLUSIONS

Separate risk prediction models for Crohn's disease-related surgery and complications were developed using clinical trial data involving community gastroenterology practices. These models could be used to guide Crohn's disease management. External validation is warranted.

Predicting the Individual Risk of Acute Severe Colitis at Diagnosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute severe colitis [ASC] is associated with major morbidity. We aimed to develop and externally validate an index that predicted ASC within 3 years of diagnosis.

METHODS

The development cohort included patients aged 16-89 years, diagnosed with ulcerative colitis [UC] in Oxford and followed for 3 years. Primary outcome was hospitalization for ASC, excluding patients admitted within 1 month of diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression examined the adjusted association of seven risk factors with ASC. Backwards elimination produced a parsimonious model that was simplified to create an easy-to-use index. External validation occurred in separate cohorts from Cambridge, UK, and Uppsala, Sweden.

RESULTS

The development cohort [Oxford] included 34/111 patients who developed ASC within a median 14 months [range 1-29]. The final model applied the sum of 1 point each for extensive disease, C-reactive protein [CRP] > 10mg/l, or haemoglobin < 12g/dl F or < 14g/dl M at diagnosis, to give a score from 0/3 to 3/3. This predicted a 70% risk of developing ASC within 3 years [score 3/3]. Validation cohorts included different proportions with ASC [Cambridge = 25/96; Uppsala = 18/298]. Of those scoring 3/3 at diagnosis, 18/18 [Cambridge] and 12/13 [Uppsala] subsequently developed ASC. Discriminant ability [c-index, where 1.0 = perfect discrimination] was 0.81 [Oxford], 0.95 [Cambridge], 0.97 [Uppsala]. Internal validation using bootstrapping showed good calibration, with similar predicted risk across all cohorts. A nomogram predicted individual risk.

CONCLUSIONS

An index applied at diagnosis reliably predicts the risk of ASC within 3 years in different populations. Patients with a score 3/3 at diagnosis may merit early immunomodulator therapy.

Treat to Target in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

OPINION STATEMENT

With the expanding armamentarium in IBD the current treatment targets can be reached. By optimally using our drugs we can avoid long-term complications in IBD. For this the therapeutic strategy has to be changed from a clinically driven approach to a target-driven strategy. Currently mucosal healing, normalization of biomarkers, histological healing, and healing on abdominal imaging are proposed targets. Correct phenotyping of the patient before initiation of therapy is mandatory. Once treatment is initiated a continuous re-evaluation with consequent adaptation of the treatment when goals are not (yet) reached is needed. Both escalation and de-escalation should be considered. Drug levels can be used as a guidance to reach these targets.

A validated web-based tool to display individualised Crohn's disease predicted outcomes based on clinical, serologic and genetic variables

BACKGROUND

Early treatment for Crohn's disease (CD) with immunomodulators and/or anti-TNF agents improves outcomes in comparison to a slower 'step up' algorithm. However, there remains a limited ability to identify those who would benefit most from early intensive therapy.

AIM

To develop a validated, individualised, web-based tool for patients and clinicians to visualise individualised risks for developing Crohn's disease complications.

METHODS

A well-characterised cohort of adult patients with CD was analysed. Available data included: demographics; clinical characteristics; serologic immune responses; NOD2 status; time from diagnosis to complication; and medication exposure. Cox proportional analyses were performed to model the probability of developing a CD complication over time. The Cox model was validated externally in two independent CD cohorts. Using system dynamics analysis (SDA), these results were transformed into a simple graphical web-based display to show patients their individualised probability of developing a complication over a 3-year period.

RESULTS

Two hundered and forty three CD patients were included in the final model of which 142 experienced a complication. Significant variables in the multivariate Cox model included small bowel disease (HR 2.12, CI 1.05-4.29), left colonic disease (HR 0.73, CI 0.49-1.09), perianal disease (HR 4.12, CI 1.01-16.88), ASCA (HR 1.35, CI 1.16-1.58), Cbir (HR 1.29, CI 1.07-1.55), ANCA (HR 0.77, CI 0.62-0.95), and the NOD2 frameshift mutation/SNP13 (HR 2.13, CI 1.33-3.40). The Harrell's C (concordance index for predictive accuracy of the model) = 0.73. When applied to the two external validation cohorts (adult n = 109, pediatric n = 392), the concordance index was 0.73 and 0.75, respectively, for adult and pediatric patients.

CONCLUSIONS

A validated, web-based tool has been developed to display an individualised predicted outcome for adult patients with Crohn's disease based on clinical, serologic and genetic variables. This tool can be used to help providers and patients make personalised decisions about treatment options.