Diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound screening for fetal structural abnormalities during the first and second trimester of pregnancy in low-risk and unselected populations

BACKGROUND

Prenatal ultrasound is widely used to screen for structural anomalies before birth. While this is traditionally done in the second trimester, there is an increasing use of first-trimester ultrasound for early detection of lethal and certain severe structural anomalies.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound in detecting fetal structural anomalies before 14 and 24 weeks' gestation in low-risk and unselected pregnant women and to compare the current two main prenatal screening approaches: a single second-trimester scan (single-stage screening) and a first- and second-trimester scan combined (two-stage screening) in terms of anomaly detection before 24 weeks' gestation.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science), Social Sciences Citation Index (Web of Science), Arts & Humanities Citation Index and Emerging Sources Citation Index (Web of Science) from 1 January 1997 to 22 July 2022. We limited our search to studies published after 1997 and excluded animal studies, reviews and case reports. No further restrictions were applied. We also screened reference lists and citing articles of each of the included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies were eligible if they included low-risk or unselected pregnant women undergoing a first- and/or second-trimester fetal anomaly scan, conducted at 11 to 14 or 18 to 24 weeks' gestation, respectively. The reference standard was detection of anomalies at birth or postmortem.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently undertook study selection, quality assessment (QUADAS-2), data extraction and evaluation of the certainty of evidence (GRADE approach). We used univariate random-effects logistic regression models for the meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity.

MAIN RESULTS

Eighty-seven studies covering 7,057,859 fetuses (including 25,202 with structural anomalies) were included. No study was deemed low risk across all QUADAS-2 domains. Main methodological concerns included risk of bias in the reference standard domain and risk of partial verification. Applicability concerns were common in studies evaluating first-trimester scans and two-stage screening in terms of patient selection due to frequent recruitment from single tertiary centres without exclusion of referrals. We reported ultrasound accuracy for fetal structural anomalies overall, by severity, affected organ system and for 46 specific anomalies. Detection rates varied widely across categories, with the highest estimates of sensitivity for thoracic and abdominal wall anomalies and the lowest for gastrointestinal anomalies across all tests. The summary sensitivity of a first-trimester scan was 37.5% for detection of structural anomalies overall (95% confidence interval (CI) 31.1 to 44.3; low-certainty evidence) and 91.3% for lethal anomalies (95% CI 83.9 to 95.5; moderate-certainty evidence), with an overall specificity of 99.9% (95% CI 99.9 to 100; low-certainty evidence). Two-stage screening had a combined sensitivity of 83.8% (95% CI 74.7 to 90.1; low-certainty evidence), while single-stage screening had a sensitivity of 50.5% (95% CI 38.5 to 62.4; very low-certainty evidence). The specificity of two-stage screening was 99.9% (95% CI 99.7 to 100; low-certainty evidence) and for single-stage screening, it was 99.8% (95% CI 99.2 to 100; moderate-certainty evidence). Indirect comparisons suggested superiority of two-stage screening across all analyses regarding sensitivity, with no significant difference in specificity. However, the certainty of the evidence is very low due to the absence of direct comparisons.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

A first-trimester scan has the potential to detect lethal and certain severe anomalies with high accuracy before 14 weeks' gestation, despite its limited overall sensitivity. Conversely, two-stage screening shows high accuracy in detecting most fetal structural anomalies before 24 weeks' gestation with high sensitivity and specificity. In a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 fetuses, the first-trimester scan is expected to correctly identify 113 out of 124 fetuses with lethal anomalies (91.3%) and 665 out of 1776 fetuses with any anomaly (37.5%). However, 79 false-positive diagnoses are anticipated among 98,224 fetuses (0.08%). Two-stage screening is expected to correctly identify 1448 out of 1776 cases of structural anomalies overall (83.8%), with 118 false positives (0.1%). In contrast, single-stage screening is expected to correctly identify 896 out of 1776 cases before 24 weeks' gestation (50.5%), with 205 false-positive diagnoses (0.2%). This represents a difference of 592 fewer correct identifications and 88 more false positives compared to two-stage screening. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding the additional benefits of two-stage versus single-stage screening, as there are no studies directly comparing them. Moreover, the evidence supporting the accuracy of first-trimester ultrasound and two-stage screening approaches primarily originates from studies conducted in single tertiary care facilities, which restricts the generalisability of the results of this meta-analysis to the broader population.

Sacral Spina Bifida Occulta: A Frequency Analysis of Secular Change

Substantial relaxation of natural selection beginning around 1900 changed the mutation/selec­tion balance of modern genetic material, producing an increase in variable anatomical structures. While multiple structures have been affected, the temporal increase in variations of the sacrum, specifically, ‘Sa­cral Spina Bifida Occulta,’ have been reliably demonstrated on a localised scale. Calculation of largescale frequency has been hindered by the localised nature of these publications, the morphological variability of this variation, and potential pathological associations, which have produced divergent classifications, and conflicting reported rates of occurrence. A systematic review of the reported literature was conducted to provide an objective analysis of Sacral Spina Bifida Occulta frequency from 2500 BCE to the present. This review was designed to compensate for observed inconsistencies in reporting and to ascertain, for the first time, the temporal trajectory of this secular trend. A systematic review of Sacral Spina Bifida Occulta lit­erature was conducted through the strict use of clinical meta-analysis criteria. Publications were retrieved from four databases: PubMed, Embase, the Adelaide University Library database, and Google Scholar. Data were separated into three historical groups, (1 = <1900, 2 = 1900 to 1980 and 3 = >1980), and frequency outcomes compared, to determine temporal rates of occurrence. A total of 39/409 publications were included in the final analysis, representing data for 16,167 sacra, spanning a period of 4,500 years. Statistically significant results were obtained, with total open S1 frequen­cy increasing from 2.34%, (79 to 1900CE), to 4.80%, (1900 to 1980CE) and to 5.43% (>1980CE). These increases were significant at p<0.0001, with Chi-squared analysis. A clear secular increase in the global frequency of Sacral Spina Bifida Occulta has been demonstrated from 1900 to the present. This research provides a novel and adaptable framework for the future assessment of variation distribution, with impor­tant implications for the fields of biological anthropology and bioarchaeology.

Prenatal diagnosis and clinical significance of cephalocele-A single institution experience and literature review

OBJECTIVES

To determine the frequency of genetic and additional structural abnormalities as well as pregnancy outcomes in fetuses with prenatally diagnosed cephalocele.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of data retrieved from ultrasound examinations and genetic testing in fetuses with cephalocele diagnosed between 2006 and 2018 in a tertiary referral hospital along with a systematic literature search in the PubMed database on fetuses with prenatally diagnosed cephalocele.

RESULTS

Twenty-one out of 36 fetuses were found to have additional structural anomalies (58.3%). In four fetuses, anomalies were consistent with limb-body wall complex, in five with Meckel-Gruber syndrome, and in one with amniotic band syndrome. Genetic abnormalities were present in 11.1% of fetuses (trisomy 6; microdeletion 22q11.21; microduplication 16p13.11; pathogenic variant in gene CC2D2A). Twenty-eight pregnancies were terminated (77.8%; 28/36); two were miscarried (5.6%; 2/36). All six children from pregnancies that continued were liveborn but only two survived the surgery and developed neurological sequence. Overall survival rate was 25% (2/8) with 0% intact survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Additional structural anomalies are common in fetuses with cephalocele. A significant number of fetuses have genetic abnormalities, and a detailed genetic testing should be performed in all cases. The prognosis is poor with high mortality rate and 0% intact survival.

Triple surveillance: a proposal for an integrated strategy to support and accelerate birth defect prevention

Preventing neural tube defects (NTDs) easily qualifies as a high-value opportunity to improve childhood survival and health: the unmet need is significant (major preventable burden), the intervention is transformative (providing sufficient folic acid), and delivery strategies (e.g., fortification) are effective in low-resource countries. Yet, NTD prevention is lagging. Can public health surveillance help fix this problem? Critics contend that surveillance is largely unnecessary, that limited resources are best spent on interventions, and that surveillance is unrealistic in developing countries. The counterargument is twofold: (1) in the absence of surveillance, interventions will provide fewer benefits and cost more and (2) effective surveillance is likely possible nearly everywhere, with appropriate strategies. As a base strategy, we propose "triple surveillance:" integrating surveillance of cause (folate insufficiency), of disease occurrence (NTD prevalence), and of health outcomes (morbidity, mortality, and disability). For better sustainability and usefulness, it is crucial to refocus and streamline surveillance activities (no recreational data collection), weave surveillance into clinical care (integrate in clinical workflow), and, later, work on including additional risk factors and pediatric outcomes (increase benefits at low marginal cost). By doing so, surveillance becomes not a roadblock but a preferential path to prevention and better care.

Ultrasound in Prenatal Diagnostics and Its Impact on the Epidemiology of Spina Bifida in a National Cohort from Denmark with a Comparison to Sweden

Objectives

The aim of this study was to assess the incidence, the prenatal detection rate by ultrasound, and the pregnancy outcome of spina bifida (SB) in Denmark (DK) in 2008–2015 and to compare results to national data from Sweden.

Methods

Data were retrieved from the Danish Fetal Medicine Database, which includes International Classification of Diseases- (ICD-) 10 codes for pre- or postnatally diagnoses and pregnancy outcome. Missing data were obtained from the National Patient Register. Livebirth data with myelomeningocele (MMC) in Sweden were obtained from different databases.

Results

There were 234 cases with SB in DK in 2008–2015. The incidence of SB was 4.9 : 10,000; 89% were detected with ultrasound prior to week 22; 90% of these pregnancies were terminated (ToP); 91% were isolated malformations of which 11% showed abnormal karyotype. The incidence of newborns with MMC was 1.3 : 10,000 in Sweden.

Conclusions

Ultrasound screening has a major impact on the epidemiology of SB. The prenatal detection rate of SB was high, and most SB cases were isolated and had a normal karyotype. Among women with a prenatal fetal diagnosis of SB, 90% chose to have ToP. The incidence of newborns with SB was higher in Sweden than in DK.

Prospective sonographic detection of spina bifida at 11-14 weeks and systematic literature review

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a literature review to assess the effectiveness of first trimester ultrasonographic markers of spina bifida (SB) integrating data with our prospective experience.

METHODS

The analysis of the SB cases that we prospectively detected in the first trimester, between January 2012 and February 2014, and a systematic review of all the papers evaluating the effectiveness of SB ultrasonographic markers at 11-14 weeks, namely brain stem diameter (BS), fourth ventricle/intracranial translucency (IT), cisterna magna (CM), brain stem/occipital bone distance (BSOB), the ratio between BS and BSOB. Some studies assess only the effectiveness of IT, others include more parameters, and few include them all.

RESULTS

We prospectively detected four SB cases, three open (OSB) and one closed (CSB), in a low risk population undergoing first trimester screening. In the three OSB, CM (in 2/3 cases) and BSOB (3/3) distance were below the 5th percentile, BS and BS/BSOB ratio (3/3) were above the 95th percentile. In the CSB, all the measurements were within normal limits.

CONCLUSION

The literature and our data agree that most fetuses with OSB demonstrate in the first trimester positive sonographic markers in the posterior fossa, but additional prospective studies are needed to establish the best protocol for OSB screening.