Prognostic factors in patients with small-cell lung cancer: preliminary results from a large randomised study

Predictive and prognostic factors in small cell lung cancer: current status

Clinical and laboratory parameters can predict response to chemotherapy and long term survival in small cell lung cancer, and may predict those at risk of early treatment related toxicity. This paper reviews the predictive models that have been developed to divide patients into prognostic groups for response and survival on the basis of clinical and laboratory parameters. These factors may be used for the stratification of patients in clinical trials and to help clinicians make appropriate treatment decisions for individual patients. A number of treatment-related factors can also affect outcomes. The evidence for interventions to prevent treatment deaths in high risk patients, such as prophylactic antibiotics, dosage modification or colony stimulating factor support are also reviewed.

Laboratory variables as additional staging parameters in patients with small-cell lung carcinoma. A systematic review

We have reviewed the biomedical literature published over the last 25 years in order to try to establish which of four frequently evaluated laboratory parameters (i.e. serum, or plasma, NSE, LDH, sodium or albumin) might, alone or in combination, give the "best" pretreatment prognostic information in small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients, independent of the usual radiological and clinical parameters. From the 45 studies included in this review, the only clear conclusion that can be derived is that it has not yet been clearly demonstrated that the "new" tests (NSE or other tumor markers) are superior to the "old" tests (LDH, sodium, albumin etc.). From the only seven studies that used the same powerful statistical methodologies (Cox's models in association with recursive partitioning and amalgamation procedure (RECPAM) analysis) it could be concluded that LDH and albumin might have independent prognostic significance in SCLC and in advanced SCLC respectively. Provided that, in the future, both laboratory and statistical expertises are clearly guaranteed in the primary studies in this field, it might become possible to propose laboratory parameters as additional staging parameters in SCLC.

Pretreatment prognostic factors for survival in small-cell lung cancer: a new prognostic index and validation of three known prognostic indices on 341 patients

AIMS

a) To identify which pretreatment clinical or blood parameters were predictive of patients survival in small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) in a retrospective analysis. b) To validate three known prognostic indices: Royal Marsden Model (index 1), London Group (index 2) and Manchester Score (index 3).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From 1981 to 1993, 341 SCLC patients were treated with chemotherapy with or without surgery or radiotherapy. Univariate and multiple regression analyses of survival were performed and the feasibility of these models was explored, index 1: Karnofsky index, albumin, sodium and alkaline phosphatase; index 2: ECOG performance status (PS), albumin and alanine transaminase; and index 3; lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), disease extent, sodium, Karnofsky index, alkaline phosphatase and bicarbonate.

RESULTS

Significant prognostic factors for survival after univariate and multiple regression analysis were: disease extent, PS, creatine kinase, neutrophilia, LDH, hypoalbuminemia, hyperglycemia and bicarbonate. A new prognostic index was performed that included LDH, hypoalbuminemia, neutrophilia, disease extent and PS. It defined three prognostic groups (PG). Median survival and two-year survival for these PG were 12.3, 8 and 3.4 months and 16.5%, 2.3% and 0%, respectively. The following PG were identified after application of the three models proposed: Index 1 identified two PG with 0% and 16.6% two-year survival (P < 0.001); index 2 detected three PG with 0%, 5% and 15.7% two-year survival (P < 0.001) and index 3 detected three PG with 0%, 2.5% and 16.2% two-year survivals, respectively (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

A new prognostic index is proposed allowing identification of three different PG. The feasibility of three known prognostic models was validated and demonstrated. Variables other than disease extent or PS (albumin or LDH) should be taken into account in designing future clinical trials.