Prognostication for Uveal Melanoma: Are Two Tests Better than One?

Improved Uveal Melanoma Copy Number Subtypes Including an Ultra–High-Risk Group

Purpose

Design

Participants

Methods

Main Outcome Measures

Results

Conclusions

Small Choroidal Melanoma: Correlation between Clinical Characteristics and Metastatic Potential

IMPORTANCE

Diagnosis of small choroidal melanoma is based upon clinical features and presence of factors predictive of local malignant growth. Prognostic biopsy quantifies risk of metastasis.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to explore relationship between clinical characteristics and metastatic potential of a small choroidal melanoma.

DESIGN

Retrospective review of 53 patients with small choroidal melanoma treated in a tertiary oncology clinic. Patients were derived from 3 cohorts, with pathologic confirmation, with growth confirmation, and those treated only on clinical basis. Based upon prognostic biopsy outcomes, each case was classified into low or high metastatic potential groups. Distribution of clinical characteristics such as age, laterality, symptoms, tumor dimensions, tumor distance from optic nerve and fovea, presence of surface orange pigment, drusen, retinal pigment epithelial atrophy, and subretinal fluid was analyzed between metastatic groups.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Distribution of clinical characteristics between low or high metastatic potential groups was analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 53 patients [mean age, 61 years (range, 27-81 years); 32 (60%) men and 21 (40%) women] were classified into pathology confirmed group (n = 13), growth confirmed group (n = 26), and with clinical group (n = 14). Prognostic biopsy in the growth, pathology, and clinical groups revealed low metastatic potential in 23, 10, and 11 patients, respectively, and high metastatic potential in 3 patients in each group. Distribution of clinical characteristics between low or high metastatic potential groups was not statistically significantly different.

CONCLUSION

Clinical characteristics do not identify metastatic potential of a small choroidal melanoma.

Development of a Metastatic Uveal Melanoma Prognostic Score (MUMPS) for Use in Patients Receiving Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

Simple Summary

This is a retrospective cohort study of metastatic uveal melanoma patients. This study undertook to identify clinical characteristics that were predictive and prognostics of benefit to immune checkpoint inhibitors in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma. We developed a Metastatic Uveal Melanoma Prognostic risk Score based on retrospective data that is comprised of 3 readily available clinical variables (time to metastatic diagnosis, presence of bone metastases, and LDH). Our findings demonstrated that the Metastatic Uveal Melanoma Prognostic risk Score was associated with a statistically significant association with overall survival outcomes in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma treated with ICI. There was a significant predictive association with disease control to ICI for patients with a ‘good risk’ Metastatic Uveal Melanoma Prognostic risk score. This is one of the larger analysis of clinical outcomes in metastatic uveal melanoma patients to date and could inform clinical decision-making.

Abstract

Metastatic uveal melanoma (mUM) is a rare disease. There are limited data on prognostic clinical factors for overall survival (OS) in patients with mUM treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). Retrospective and non-randomized prospective studies have reported response rates of 0–17% for anti-PD1/L1 ± anti-CTLA4 ICI in mUM, indicating a potential benefit only in a subset of patients. This study evaluates the characteristics associated with ICI benefit in patients with mUM. We performed a single-center retrospective cohort study of patients with mUM who received anti-PD1/L1 ± anti-CTLA4 ICI between 2014–2019. Clinical and genomic characteristics were collected from a chart review. Treatment response and clinical progression were determined by physician assessment. Multivariable Cox regression models and Kaplan–Meier log-rank tests were used to assess differences in clinical progression-free survival (cPFS) and OS between groups and identify clinical variables associated with ICI outcomes. We identified 71 mUM patients who received 75 lines of ICI therapy. Of these, 54 received anti-PD1/L1 alone, and 21 received anti-PD1/L1 + anti-CTLA4. Patient characteristics were: 53% female, 48% were 65 or older, 72% received one or fewer lines of prior therapy. Within our cohort, 53% of patients had developed metastatic disease <2 years after their initial diagnosis. Bone metastases were present in 12% of patients. The median cPFS was 2.7 months, and the median OS was 10.0 months. In multivariable analyses for both cPFS and OS, the following variables were associated with a good prognosis: ≥2 years from the initial diagnosis to metastatic disease (n = 25), LDH < 1.5 × ULN (n = 45), and absence of bone metastases (n = 66). We developed a Metastatic Uveal Melanoma Prognostic Score (MUMPS). Patients were divided into 3 MUMPS groups based on the number of the above-mentioned prognostic variables: Poor prognosis (0–1), Intermediate prognosis (2) and Good prognosis (3). Good prognosis patients experienced longer cPFS (6.0 months) and OS (34.5 months) than patients with intermediate (2.3 months cPFS, 9.4 months OS) and poor prognosis disease (1.8 months cPFS, 3.9 months OS); p < 0.0001. We developed MUMPS—a prognostic score based on retrospective data that is comprised of 3 readily available clinical variables (time to metastatic diagnosis, presence of bone metastases, and LDH). This MUMPS score has a potential prognostic value. Further validation in independent datasets is warranted to determine the role of this MUMPS score in selecting ICI treatment management for mUM.

Estimating Cured Fractions of Uveal Melanoma

Importance

The extent to which uveal melanoma is cured by ocular therapy is not known.

Objective

To estimate cured fractions (CF) of uveal melanoma using combination of institutional and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Integrative analysis of 42 years of SEER data (1975-2016) with 25 years (1993-2018) of complementary institutional data. The analysis included SEER US patients and molecularly prognosticated patients in the United States and Europe. Three SEER databases (SEER-9, SEER-13, and SEER-18) were merged. A total of 10 678 SEER cases of uveal melanoma diagnosed from 1975 to 2016 using International Classification of Disease for Oncology morphology codes 8720-8790 (for melanoma) and site codes C69.2-4 (for choroid, ciliary body, and iris) were downloaded April 16, 2019. The institutional data included 5 institutional cohorts of 788 molecularly prognosticated patients (diagnosed prior to July 2019) with 3115 person-years at risk of death and 262 observed deaths.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Excess absolute risks of death (EAR) and cured fraction (CF) indicates lifetime area under the EAR curve. These are applied to populations and subpopulations.

Results

The SEER EAR, with sexes and races pooled, can be modeled as a sum of 2 waves. The first wave peaks at approximately 3 years and is negligible by 15 years, at which time the second wave peaks. Institutional data suggest that the first wave is owing to BAP1 mutant cases (204 of 355 [57.5%]; 95% CI, 52%-63%) and that the second wave is owing to BAP1 wild-type SF3B1 mutant cases (60 of 355 [17%]; 95% CI, 13%-21%). There is also a third group with a low flat EAR time course (91 of 355 [25.5%]; 95% CI, 21%-30%). The overall statistical CF of 60% is reached by approximately 25 years.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that the benefits of ocular therapy for curing uveal melanoma may be questionable because statistical cures reflect deaths of poor prognosis cases and survival of good prognosis cases. Changes in uveal melanoma patient management may be needed to improve survival.