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Noh J, Yoo KD, Bae W, Lee JS, Kim K, Cho JH, Lee H, Kim DK, Lim CS, Kang SW, Kim YL, Kim YS, Kim G, Lee JP. Prediction of the Mortality Risk in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients using Machine Learning Models: A Nation-wide Prospective Cohort in Korea. Sci Rep 2020; 10:7470. [PMID: 32366838 PMCID: PMC7198502 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-64184-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2019] [Accepted: 04/07/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Herein, we aim to assess mortality risk prediction in peritoneal dialysis patients using machine-learning algorithms for proper prognosis prediction. A total of 1,730 peritoneal dialysis patients in the CRC for ESRD prospective cohort from 2008 to 2014 were enrolled in this study. Classification algorithms were used for prediction of N-year mortality including neural network. The survival hazard ratio was presented by machine-learning algorithms using survival statistics and was compared to conventional algorithms. A survival-tree algorithm presented the most accurate prediction model and outperformed a conventional method such as Cox regression (concordance index 0.769 vs 0.745). Among various survival decision-tree models, the modified Charlson Comorbidity index (mCCI) was selected as the best predictor of mortality. If peritoneal dialysis patients with high mCCI (>4) were aged ≥70.5 years old, the survival hazard ratio was predicted as 4.61 compared to the overall study population. Among the various algorithm using longitudinal data, the AUC value of logistic regression was augmented at 0.804. In addition, the deep neural network significantly improved performance to 0.841. We propose machine learning-based final model, mCCI and age were interrelated as notable risk factors for mortality in Korean peritoneal dialysis patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junhyug Noh
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Kyung Don Yoo
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ulsan University Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Ulsan, South Korea
| | - Wonho Bae
- College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Massachusetts, United States
| | - Jong Soo Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ulsan University Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Ulsan, South Korea
| | - Kangil Kim
- School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), Gwangju, South Korea
| | - Jang-Hee Cho
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kyungpook National University College of Medicine, Daegu, South Korea
| | - Hajeong Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Dong Ki Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Chun Soo Lim
- Department of Internal Medicine Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Shin-Wook Kang
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Yong-Lim Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kyungpook National University College of Medicine, Daegu, South Korea
| | - Yon Su Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Gunhee Kim
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
| | - Jung Pyo Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea.
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