Conversion of Optic Neuritis to Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis: A Retrospective Comorbidity Cohort Study

Can volumetric analysis of the brain help diagnose isolated optic neuritis?

Isolated optic neuritis is a single episode inflammatory optic neuropathy. This condition, which affects the optimal function of the optic nerve, is not associated with neurological or systemic diseases. Our study aimed to compare patients with isolated optic neuritis and normal healthy individuals in terms of the cerebrum, cerebellum and hippocampus volumes by using the "volBrain Online MRI Brain Volumetry System" program. Persons diagnosed with isolated optic neuritis (n = 16) and persons without any disease (n = 16) were included in the study. VolBrain was used to process the MRI data and, the findings were compared with Mann-Whitney U test. Values with a p-value <0.05 were considered statistically significant. The cerebrum white matter volumes in the total brain and in the right-left hemispheres of the brain were statistically significantly lower in the optic neuritis group (p = 0.029; p = 0.050; p = 0.029, respectively). In the segmental cerebellum analysis, the left side lobule VIIIB, the total and right-left side lobule IX volumes were statistically significantly higher (p = 0.022; p = 0.014; p = 0.029; p = 0.018, respectively). In total, lobule I-II volume was statistically significantly lower in the optic neuritis group (p = 0.046). In the segmental hippocampus analysis, the right side CA2-CA3, the total and right-left side SR-SL-SM volumes were statistically significantly lower in the optic neuritis group (p = 0.039; p = 0.050; p = 0.016, respectively). There are neurodegenerative changes in brain volume in patients with isolated optic neuritis. Although volBrain alone is not sufficient to diagnose isolated optic neuritis, it provides quantitative data that can be used as a complementary diagnostic method.

A novel decision tree approach to predict the probability of conversion to multiple sclerosis in Iranian patients with optic neuritis

BACKGROUND

assessing the risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis (MS) in patients with optic neuritis (ON) has been the topic of numerous studies. However, since the risk factors differ from population to population, the extension of conclusions is a matter of debate. This study focused on the Iranian patients with optic neuritis and assessed the probability of conversion to multiple sclerosis by using a machine-based learning decision tree.

METHODS

in this retrospective, observational study the medical records of patients with optic neuritis from 2008 to 2018 were reviewed. Baseline vision, the treatment modality, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings, and patients' demographics were gathered to evaluate the odds of each factor for conversion to MS. The decision tree was then obtained from these data based on their specificity and sensitivity to predict the probability of conversion to MS.

RESULTS

the overall conversion rate to MS was 42.2% (117/277). 63.1 percent of patients had abnormal MRIs at baseline. The presence of white matter plaque had the highest odds for the conversion followed by the positive history of optic neuritis attack and gender. The regression tree showed that the presence of plaque was the most important predicting factor that increased the probability of conversion from 16 to 51 percent.

CONCLUSION

the decision tree could predict the probability of conversion to MS by considering multiple risk factors with acceptable precision.