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Arafa A, Kokubo Y, Sheerah HA, Sakai Y, Watanabe E, Li J, Honda-Kohmo K, Teramoto M, Kashima R, Nakao YM, Koga M. Developing a Stroke Risk Prediction Model Using Cardiovascular Risk Factors: The Suita Study. Cerebrovasc Dis 2021; 51:323-330. [PMID: 34844243 DOI: 10.1159/000520100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2021] [Accepted: 10/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Stroke remains a major cause of death and disability in Japan and worldwide. Detecting individuals at high risk for stroke to apply preventive approaches is recommended. This study aimed to develop a stroke risk prediction model among urban Japanese using cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS We followed 6,641 participants aged 30-79 years with neither a history of stroke nor coronary heart disease. The Cox proportional hazard model estimated the risk of stroke incidence adjusted for potential confounders at the baseline survey. The model's performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. The internal validity of the risk model was tested using derivation and validation samples. Regression coefficients were used for score calculation. RESULTS During a median follow-up duration of 17.1 years, 372 participants developed stroke. A risk model including older age, current smoking, increased blood pressure, impaired fasting blood glucose and diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and atrial fibrillation predicted stroke incidence with an area under the curve = 0.76 and p value of the goodness of fit = 0.21. This risk model was shown to be internally valid (p value of the goodness of fit in the validation sample = 0.64). On a risk score from 0 to 26, the incidence of stroke for the categories 0-5, 6-7, 8-9, 10-11, 12-13, 14-15, and 16-26 was 1.1%, 2.1%, 5.4%, 8.2%, 9.0%, 13.5%, and 18.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION We developed a new stroke risk model for the urban general population in Japan. Further research to determine the clinical practicality of this model is required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmed Arafa
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
- Public Health, Department of Social Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Beni-Suef University, Beni-Suef, Egypt
| | - Yoshihiro Kokubo
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
| | - Haytham A Sheerah
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
- Public Health, Department of Social Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan
| | - Yukie Sakai
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
| | - Emi Watanabe
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
| | - Jiaqi Li
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
- Public Health, Department of Social Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan
| | - Kyoko Honda-Kohmo
- Division of Preventive Healthcare, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
| | - Masayuki Teramoto
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
- Public Health, Department of Social Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan
| | - Rena Kashima
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
- Public Health Division, Ibaraki Public Health Center, Osaka Prefectural Government, Osaka, Japan
| | - Yoko M Nakao
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
- Center for Cerebral and Cardiovascular Disease Information, Open Innovative Center, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
- Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Masatoshi Koga
- Division of Cerebrovascular Medicine, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
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Kotalczyk A, Ding WY, Wong CF, Rao A, Gupta D, Lip GYH. Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease. Cardiol Clin 2021; 39:435-446. [PMID: 34247756 DOI: 10.1016/j.ccl.2021.04.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
There is a bidirectional relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), with multiple shared risk factors. This article discusses an integrated care approach toward the management of patients with AF, including those with CKD. There is an increasing risk of both ischemic stroke and bleeding with progressive deterioration of renal function, complicating the decision of optimal stroke prevention strategies among patients with AF and CKD. The optimal stroke prevention strategy in patients with AF and severe CKD remains uncertain. An individualized approach incorporating stroke and bleeding risk stratification is needed, especially in those with end-stage renal disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Agnieszka Kotalczyk
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Thomas Drive, Liverpool L14 3PE, UK; Department of Cardiology, Congenital Heart Diseases and Electrotherapy, Medical University of Silesia, Silesian Centre for Heart Diseases, M. Sklodowskiej-Curie 7, Zabrze 41-800, Poland
| | - Wern Yew Ding
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Thomas Drive, Liverpool L14 3PE, UK
| | - Christopher F Wong
- Department of Renal Medicine, Liverpool University Hospital, Prescot Street, Liverpool L7 8XP, UK
| | - Anirudh Rao
- Department of Renal Medicine, Liverpool University Hospital, Prescot Street, Liverpool L7 8XP, UK
| | - Dhiraj Gupta
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Thomas Drive, Liverpool L14 3PE, UK
| | - Gregory Y H Lip
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Thomas Drive, Liverpool L14 3PE, UK; Aalborg Thrombosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Søndre Skovvej 15, Aalborg 9000, Denmark.
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