Predicting outcomes among patients with atrial fibrillation and heart failure receiving anticoagulation with warfarin

Warfarin-Induced Rapid Rise in INR Post-Cardiac Surgery Is Not Associated With Increased Bleeding Risk

Background: Post-cardiac surgery bleeding can have devastating consequences, and it is unknown if warfarin-induced rapid international normalized ratio (INR) rise during the immediate postoperative period increases bleed risk. Objective: To determine the impact of warfarin-induced rapid-rise INR on post-cardiac surgery bleeding. Methods: This was a single-center, retrospective chart review of post-cardiac surgery patients initiated on warfarin at Mayo Clinic Hospital, Rochester. Patients were grouped based on occurrence or absence of rapid-rise INR (increase ≥1.0 within 24 hours). The primary outcome compared bleed events between groups. Secondary outcomes assessed hospital length of stay (LOS) and identified risk factors associated with bleed events and rapid rise in INR. Results: During the study period, 2342 patients were included, and 56 bleed events were evaluated. Bleed events were similar between rapid-rise (n = 752) and non-rapid-rise (n = 1590) groups in both univariate (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.22; P = 0.594) and multivariable models (HR = 1.24; P = 0.561). Those with rapid-rise INR had longer LOS after warfarin administration (discharge HR = 0.84; P = 0.0002). The most common warfarin dose immediately prior to rapid rise was 5 mg. Risk factors for rapid-rise INR were low body mass index, female gender, and cross-clamp time. Conclusion and Relevance: This represents the first report to assess warfarin-related rapid-rise INR in post-cardiac surgery patients and found correlation to hospital LOS but not bleed events. Conservative warfarin dosing may be warranted until further research can be conducted.

Prediction Score for Anticoagulation Control Quality Among Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Time in the therapeutic range (TTR) is associated with the effectiveness and safety of vitamin K antagonist (VKA) therapy. To optimize prescribing of VKA, we aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for TTR in older adults taking VKA for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study cohort comprised patients aged ≥65 years who were taking VKA for atrial fibrillation or venous thromboembolism and who were identified in the 2 US electronic health record databases linked with Medicare claims data from 2007 through 2014. With the predictors identified from a systematic review and clinical knowledge, we built a prediction model for TTR, using one electronic health record system as the training set and the other as the validation set. We compared the performance of the new models to that of a published prediction score for TTR, SAMe-TT2R2. Based on 1663 patients in the training set and 1181 in the validation set, our optimized score included 42 variables and the simplified model included 7 variables, abbreviated as PROSPER (Pneumonia, Renal dysfunction, Oozing blood [prior bleeding], Staying in hospital ≥7 days, Pain medication use, no Enhanced [structured] anticoagulation services, Rx for antibiotics). The PROSPER score outperformed SAMe-TT2R2 when predicting both TTR ≥70% (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.67 versus 0.55) and the thromboembolic and bleeding outcomes (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.62 versus 0.52).

CONCLUSIONS

Our geriatric TTR score can be used as a clinical decision aid to select appropriate candidates to receive VKA therapy and as a research tool to address confounding and treatment effect heterogeneity by anticoagulation quality.

Stability of High-Quality Warfarin Anticoagulation in a Community-Based Atrial Fibrillation Cohort: The Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) Study

BACKGROUND

Warfarin reduces ischemic stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF) but increases bleeding risk. Novel anticoagulants challenge warfarin as stroke-preventive therapy for AF. They are available at fixed doses but are more costly. Warfarin anticoagulation at a time in therapeutic range (TTR) ≥70% is similarly as effective and safe as novel anticoagulants. It is unclear whether AF patients with TTR ≥70% will remain stably anticoagulated and avoid the need to switch to a novel anticoagulant. We assessed stability of warfarin anticoagulation in AF patients with an initial TTR ≥70%.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Within the community-based Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in AF (ATRIA) cohort followed from 1996 to 2003, we identified 2841 new warfarin users who continued warfarin over 9 months. We excluded months 1 to 3 to achieve a stable dose. For the 987 patients with TTR ≥70% in an initial 6-month period (TTR1; months 4-9), we described the distribution of TTR2 (months 10-15) and assessed multivariable correlates of persistent TTR ≥70%. Of patients with TTR1 ≥70%, 57% persisted with TTR2 ≥70% and 16% deteriorated to TTR2 <50%. Only initial TTR1 ≥90% (adjusted odds ratio 1.47, 95% CI 1.07-2.01) independently predicted TTR2 ≥70%. Heart failure was moderately associated with marked deterioration (TTR2 <50%); adjusted odds ratio 1.45, 95% CI 1.00-2.10.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly 60% of AF patients with high-quality TTR1 on warfarin maintained TTR ≥70% over the next 6 months. A minority deteriorated to very poor TTR. Patient features did not strongly predict TTR in the second 6-month period. Our analyses support watchful waiting for AF patients with initial high-quality warfarin anticoagulation before considering alternative anticoagulants.

Anticoagulation in Heart Failure: a Review

Heart failure (HF) with reduced left ventricular function inflicts a large and growing burden of morbidity and mortality in the US and across the globe. One source of this burden is stroke. While it appears that HF itself may impose some risk of stroke, it is in the presence of other risk factors, like atrial fibrillation, that the greatest risks are observed. Therapeutic anticoagulation is the mainstay of risk reduction strategies in this population. While warfarin was the only available therapy for anticoagulation for many decades, there are now four direct oral anticoagulants available. In three of these four, outcomes in the specific subgroup of patients with heart failure have been examined. In this review, we provide some pathophysiologic basis for the risk of stroke in heart failure. In addition, the available therapeutic options for stroke risk prevention in heart failure are described in detail including how these options are incorporated into relevant professional society guidelines.