Infant mortality trend in the city of Rio Branco, AC, 1999 to 2015

Tendência da mortalidade neonatal no Brasil de 2007 a 2017

Resumo O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a tendência da mortalidade neonatal no Brasil de 2007 a 2017. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico de série temporal, realizado com dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade e do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos, analisados por meio de regressão de Prais-Winsten. Verificou-se uma taxa média de mortalidade neonatal de 9,46/1.000 nascidos vivos no período, com redução de 2,15% ao ano. Houve maior declínio da mortalidade neonatal precoce, comparada com a tardia. Destaca-se tendência crescente dos óbitos neonatais entre neonatos pré-termos, com extremo baixo peso, nascidos de parto cesáreo, filhos de mães com idade superior a 30 anos e escolaridade superior a oito anos de estudo. Em relação às causas de morte, verificou-se tendência crescente dos óbitos por malformações congênitas, doenças infecciosas, doenças endócrinas, nutricionais e metabólicas e causas externas. Constatou-se, ainda, tendência crescente nos óbitos evitáveis por adequada atenção à mulher na gestação e por demais causas não claramente evitáveis. Apesar da redução geral dos óbitos, faz-se necessário intensificar as políticas públicas de assistência adequada à mulher na gestação para garantir melhoria nos demais indicadores analisados.

Infant mortality in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo: an ecological study

Objective

To determine the impact of risk factors on infant mortality in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo according to maternal and neonate characteristics, as well as mode of delivery.

Methods

An ecological, quantitative study based on secondary data retrieved from infant mortality and live birth data systems. Data from 39 municipalities located in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo were analyzed. Newborn and maternal variables were extracted from the Information Technology Department of the Unified Health System. Absolute and relative frequencies were presented, as well as linear regression and Pearson´s correlation coefficient.

Results

The following maternal profile prevailed from 2006 to 2016: 8 to 11 years of education (β=73.58; p=0.023), age between 30 and 34 years (β=19.04; p=0.015) and delivery by cesarean section (β=39.59; p=0.009) after full-term pregnancy (β=-14.20; p=0.324). Mortality rates decreased in neonates compared to other age groups (β=-25.30; p<0.001). Infant mortality rates tended to be higher among women experiencing pre-term (r=0.86; p<0.001) or post-term (r=0.95; p<0.001) gestation.

Conclusion

Maternal age and level of education increased among women giving birth in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo from 2006 to 2016. These were relevant factors for infant mortality rate reduction.

Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA): conceptual and methodological aspects and applicability in infant mortality

Abstract This reflective theoretical article, aims to discuss conceptual and methodological aspects about the applications of time series modeling, in particular, the Integrated Auto-regressive Moving Average model and its applicability in infant mortality. This modeling makes it possible to predict future values using past data, outlining and estimating possible scenarios of the health event, highlighting its magnitude. Due to the persistence of infant mortality as a public health problem, the applicability of this method is useful in the timely and systematic management of child health indicators, in addition to being a method with low operating cost, which in contexts of cost reduction in public healthcare services, becomes a potential management tool. However, there are still gaps in the use of statistical methods in the decision-making and policy-making process in public healthcare, such as the modeling in question. These are methodological (robust statistics), institutional (outdated information systems) and cultural obstacles (devaluation of the data produced, mainly at the local level).

Fetal and infant mortality trends according to the avoidability of causes of death and maternal education

OBJECTIVE

To estimate trends of fetal (FMR) and neonatal (NMR) mortality rates due to avoidable causes and maternal education in the city of Rio de Janeiro (2000-2018).

METHODS

Ecological time series study. Mortality and Live Birth Information System Data. The List of Avoidable Causes of Death Due to Interventions of the Brazilian Health System was used for neonatal deaths and an adaptation for fetal deaths, according to maternal education indicators (low <4 and high ≥12, years of study). Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate trends in FMR, based on one thousand births, and NMR, based on one thousand live births.

RESULTS

FMR decreased from 11.0 to 9.3% and NMR from 11.3 to 7.8% (2000/2018). In 2006, FMR (10.5%) exceeded NMR (9.0%), remaining higher. From 2000 to 2018, the annual decrease of FMR was 0.8% (2000 to 2018) and of NMR, 3.8% until 2007, decreasing to 1.1% by 2011; from then on, it remained stable. Avoidable causes, especially those reducible by adequate prenatal care, showed higher rates. Both FMR and NMR for low-education women were higher than those for the high-education level, the difference being much more pronounced for FMR, and at the end of the period: low- and high-education FMR were respectively 16.4 and 4.5% (2000) and 48.5 and 3.9% (2018), and for NMR, 18.2 and 6.7% (2000) and 28.4 and 5.0% (2018).

CONCLUSION

The favorable trend of decreasing mortality was not observed for children of mothers with low education, revealing inequalities. The causes were mostly avoidable, being related to prenatal care and childbirth.