Prognostication in 3-vessel coronary artery disease based on left ventricular ejection fraction during exercise : influence of coronary artery bypass grafting

Prognostic significance of post-stress reduction in left ventricular ejection fraction with adenosine stress in Jordanian patients with normal myocardial perfusion

BACKGROUND

The significance of post-stress reduction in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in patients with normal perfusion on adenosine stress/rest imaging remains controversial.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who underwent 2-day adenosine gated stress/rest 99mTc-sestamibi imaging and had normal perfusion were analyzed. LVEF was quantified at rest and 1 hour post-adenosine. Patients were followed up for hard (cardiac death or nonfatal MI) and soft (coronary revascularization or congestive heart failure) cardiac events for 24.1 ± 11.0 months.

RESULTS

Of 560 patients included in the study, 135 (24.1%) had a post-stress reduction in LVEF of ≥ 5%. Rest LVEF (P < 0.001), known history of CAD (P = 0.01) and transient ischemic dilatation ratio (P = 0.02) were independent predictors of LVEF reduction. Event-free survivals were similar in patients with and without ≥ 5% LVEF reduction (P = 0.8). The unadjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) for cardiac events for ≥ 5% LVEF reduction was 1.09 (0.55-2.15), P = 0.81, while the hazard ratio adjusted for known history of CAD, smoking, post-stress LVEF and peak heart rate was 0.87 (0.44-1.75), P = 0.71.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant post-adenosine reduction in LVEF occurs in about one-fourth of patients with normal perfusion but does not confer adverse prognosis compared with patients without such reduction.

Time-dependent bias was common in survival analyses published in leading clinical journals

OBJECTIVE

In survival analysis, "baseline immeasurable" time-dependent factors cannot be recorded at baseline, and change value after patient observation starts. Time-dependent bias can occur if such variables are not analyzed appropriately. This study sought to determine the prevalence of such time-dependent bias in highly-cited medical journals.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We searched Medline databases to identify all observational studies that used a survival analysis in American Journal of Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, Archives of Internal Medicine, British Medical Journal, Chest, Circulation, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine between 1998 and 2002. Studies with "baseline immeasurable" time-dependent factors were susceptible to time-dependent bias if a time-dependent covariate analysis was not used.

RESULTS

Of 682 eligible studies, 127 (18.6%, 95% CI 15.8-21.8%) contained a "baseline immeasurable" time-dependent factor and 52 (7.6% [5.8-9.9%] of all survival analyses/40.9% [32.3-50.0%] of studies with a time-dependent factor) were susceptible to time-dependent bias. In 35 studies (5.1% [3.7-7.1%]/27.6% [20.5-35.9%]), the bias affected a variable highlighted in the study abstract and correction of the bias could have qualitatively changed the study's conclusion in over half of studies.

CONCLUSION

In medical journals, time-dependent bias is concerningly common and frequently affects key factors and the study's conclusion.

Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction Change with Exercise Versus Ejection Fraction at Rest in Coronary Artery Disease: Implications for Using Ejection Fraction Variations in Making Therapeutic Decisions

Previous studies have differed regarding the prognostic importance of the change (Delta) in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) with exercise among patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Data suggest that these discrepancies may be owing to patient selection, including wide interstudy variations in the range of LVEFrest at study entry; however, the impact of LVEFrest on LVEF exercise response has not been adequately addressed. To test the hypothesis that magnitude and variability in DeltaLVEF are systematically related to LVEFrest, we analyzed data from 2655 patients who underwent rest/exercise radionuclide cineangiography for evaluation of clinically evident CAD, stratified into 5 successive LVEFrest subgroups: <30% (n = 205), 30%-44% (n = 563), 45%-59% (n = 1529), 60%-75% (n = 324), and >75% (n = 34). The standard deviation of DeltaLVEF among patients with LVEFrest <30% was found to be half that among patients in the higher LVEFrest subgroups (P < 0.00001, global). The average magnitude of the rise and fall in LVEF with exercise also varied markedly among LVEFrest subgroups (P < 0.0001, global), being smallest among patients with LVEFrest <30%. These findings may explain differences in predictive accuracy of DeltaLVEF noted among various study populations. Further study is needed to determine whether LVEFrest should be used in selecting exercise-based prognostic descriptors in individual patients.