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Greig D, Austin PC, Zhou L, Tu JV, Pang PS, Ross HJ, Lee DS. Ischemic Electrocardiographic Abnormalities and Prognosis in Decompensated Heart Failure. Circ Heart Fail 2014; 7:986-93. [DOI: 10.1161/circheartfailure.114.001460] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Abstract
Background—
Identification of coronary ischemia may enable targeted diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for acute heart failure. We determined the risk of 30-day mortality associated with ischemic ECG abnormalities in patients with acute heart failure.
Methods and Results—
Among 8772 patients (53.4% women, median 78 years [Q1, Q3: 68,84]) presenting with acute heart failure to 86 hospital emergency departments in Ontario, Canada, Q-waves, T-wave inversion, or ST-depression were present in 51.8% of subjects. However, presence of ST-depression was the only finding associated with 30-day mortality with adjusted odds ratio 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02–1.50). Using continuous net reclassification improvement, addition of ST-depression to the Emergency Heart failure Mortality Risk Grade model reclassified 16.9% of patients overall, and 29.3% of those with a history of ischemic heart disease (both
P
<0.001). By adding ST-depression to the model, the Emergency Heart failure Mortality Risk Grade was extended to predict 30-day death with high discrimination (
c
-statistic 0.801), with 0.57% mortality rate in the lowest risk decile. Adjusted odds ratios for 30-day mortality were 2.81 (95% CI, 1.48–5.31;
P
=0.002) in quintile 2, 7.41 (95% CI, 4.13–13.30;
P
<0.001) in quintile 3, and 14.47 (95% CI, 8.20–25.54;
P
<0.001) in quintile 4 compared with the lowest risk quintile. When the highest risk quintile was subdivided into 2 equally sized risk strata (deciles 9 and 10), the adjusted odds ratios for 30-day mortality were 27.20 (95% CI, 15.33–48.27;
P
<0.001) in decile 9 and 58.96 (95% CI, 33.54–103.65;
P
<0.001) in highest risk decile 10.
Conclusions—
Presence of ST-depression on the ECG reclassified risk of 30-day mortality in patients with acute heart failure, identifying both high- and low-risk subsets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Douglas Greig
- From the Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre (D.G., H.J.R., D.S.L.) and Joint Department of Medical Imaging (D.S.L.), University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada (D.G., P.C.A., J.V.T., H.J.R., D.S.L.); Division of Cardiovascular Diseases, School of Medicine, P. Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (D.G.); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada (P.C.A., L.Z., J.V.T., D.S.L.); Institute of Health Policy, Management,
| | - Peter C. Austin
- From the Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre (D.G., H.J.R., D.S.L.) and Joint Department of Medical Imaging (D.S.L.), University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada (D.G., P.C.A., J.V.T., H.J.R., D.S.L.); Division of Cardiovascular Diseases, School of Medicine, P. Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (D.G.); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada (P.C.A., L.Z., J.V.T., D.S.L.); Institute of Health Policy, Management,
| | - Limei Zhou
- From the Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre (D.G., H.J.R., D.S.L.) and Joint Department of Medical Imaging (D.S.L.), University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada (D.G., P.C.A., J.V.T., H.J.R., D.S.L.); Division of Cardiovascular Diseases, School of Medicine, P. Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (D.G.); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada (P.C.A., L.Z., J.V.T., D.S.L.); Institute of Health Policy, Management,
| | - Jack V. Tu
- From the Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre (D.G., H.J.R., D.S.L.) and Joint Department of Medical Imaging (D.S.L.), University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada (D.G., P.C.A., J.V.T., H.J.R., D.S.L.); Division of Cardiovascular Diseases, School of Medicine, P. Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (D.G.); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada (P.C.A., L.Z., J.V.T., D.S.L.); Institute of Health Policy, Management,
| | - Peter S. Pang
- From the Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre (D.G., H.J.R., D.S.L.) and Joint Department of Medical Imaging (D.S.L.), University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada (D.G., P.C.A., J.V.T., H.J.R., D.S.L.); Division of Cardiovascular Diseases, School of Medicine, P. Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (D.G.); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada (P.C.A., L.Z., J.V.T., D.S.L.); Institute of Health Policy, Management,
| | - Heather J. Ross
- From the Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre (D.G., H.J.R., D.S.L.) and Joint Department of Medical Imaging (D.S.L.), University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada (D.G., P.C.A., J.V.T., H.J.R., D.S.L.); Division of Cardiovascular Diseases, School of Medicine, P. Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (D.G.); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada (P.C.A., L.Z., J.V.T., D.S.L.); Institute of Health Policy, Management,
| | - Douglas S. Lee
- From the Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre (D.G., H.J.R., D.S.L.) and Joint Department of Medical Imaging (D.S.L.), University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada (D.G., P.C.A., J.V.T., H.J.R., D.S.L.); Division of Cardiovascular Diseases, School of Medicine, P. Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (D.G.); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada (P.C.A., L.Z., J.V.T., D.S.L.); Institute of Health Policy, Management,
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