Cost Effectiveness of Assessing Ultrasound Plaque Characteristics to Risk Stratify Asymptomatic Patients With Carotid Stenosis

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis by Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk

Importance

Extracranial internal carotid artery stenosis (50-99% arterial narrowing) is an important risk factor for ischemic stroke. Yet, the benefits and harms of targeted screening for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) have not been assessed in population-based studies.

Objective

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of one-time, targeted ACAS screening stratified by atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk using the American Heart Association's Pooled Cohort Equations.

Design Setting and Participants

We developed a lifetime microsimulation model of ACAS and stroke for a hypothetical cohort representative of US adults aged 50-80 years without stroke history. We used the Cardiovascular Health Study to estimate the probability and severity of ACAS based on individual characteristics (e.g., age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, and cholesterol). Stroke risks were functions of these characteristics and ACAS severity. In the model, individuals testing positive for >70% stenosis with Duplex ultrasound and a confirmatory diagnostic test undergo revascularization, which may reduce the risk of stroke but also introduces complication risks. Diagnostic performance parameters, revascularization benefits and risks, utility weights, and costs were estimated from published sources. Cost-effectiveness was assessed from the health care sector perspective using a $100,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Estimated stroke events prevented, lifetime costs, QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) associated with ACAS screening. Costs (2023 USD) and QALYs were discounted at 3% annually.

Results

We found that screening individuals with a 10-year ASCVD risk >30% was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of $89,000/QALY. This strategy would make approximately 11.9% of the population eligible for screening, averting an estimated 24,084 strokes. Results were sensitive to variations in the efficacy and complication risk of revascularization. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, screening those in lower ASCVD risk groups (0-20%) only had a 0.6% chance of being cost-effective.

Conclusion and Relevance

A one-time screening may only be cost-effective for adults at a relatively high ASCVD risk. Our findings provide a framework that can be adapted as future clinical trial data continue to improve our understanding of the role of revascularization and intensive medical therapy in contemporary stroke prevention secondary to carotid disease.

Advances in Noninvasive Carotid Wall Imaging with Ultrasound: A Narrative Review

Carotid atherosclerosis is a major cause for stroke, with significant associated disease burden morbidity and mortality in Western societies. Diagnosis, grading and follow-up of carotid atherosclerotic disease relies on imaging, specifically ultrasound (US) as the initial modality of choice. Traditionally, the degree of carotid lumen stenosis was considered the sole risk factor to predict brain ischemia. However, modern research has shown that a variety of other imaging biomarkers, such as plaque echogenicity, surface morphology, intraplaque neovascularization and vasa vasorum contribute to the risk for rupture of carotid atheromas with subsequent cerebrovascular events. Furthermore, the majority of embolic strokes of undetermined origin are probably arteriogenic and are associated with nonstenosing atheromas. Therefore, a state-of-the-art US scan of the carotid arteries should take advantage of recent technical developments and should provide detailed information about potential thrombogenic (/) and emboligenic arterial wall features. This manuscript reviews recent advances in ultrasonographic assessment of vulnerable carotid atherosclerotic plaques and highlights the fields of future development in multiparametric arterial wall imaging, in an attempt to convey the most important take-home messages for clinicians performing carotid ultrasound.

Carotid Intraplaque Neovascularization and Future Vascular Events in Patients With Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis

Objective: Intraplaque neovascularization is a marker of plaque vulnerability and is used to predict the risk of future vascular events in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis; however, its association with asymptomatic carotid stenosis has not been prospectively evaluated. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the association between intraplaque neovascularization assessed using contrast-enhanced ultrasound and the occurrence of future ischemic events in asymptomatic patients diagnosed with carotid stenosis.

Methods: We recruited patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis from our center. Contrast-enhanced ultrasound was performed at baseline. The outcomes were ischemic stroke and cardiovascular events. We plotted Kaplan-Meier survival curves and performed a log-rank test to compare endpoint event probability in patients with and without grade 2 intraplaque neovascularization. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess predictors of future vascular events.

Results: The data of 50 participants were included in the analysis (median follow-up, 43.7 months). Endpoint events occurred in 12 participants (24%). The Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that patients with grade 2 intraplaque neovascularization had a higher probability of future vascular events than those with grades 0 and 1 (p < .05). Grade 2 intraplaque neovascularization (hazard ratio: 4.530, 95% confidence interval, 1.337–15.343, p < .05) was an independent predictor of future vascular events in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

Conclusion: Grade 2 intraplaque neovascularization assessed using contrast-enhanced ultrasound independently predicted future ischemic events in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis, and contrast-enhanced ultrasound may be an effective screening method to identify high-risk subgroups of patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

Cost Effectiveness of Assessing Ultrasound Plaque Characteristics to Risk Stratify Asymptomatic Patients With Carotid Stenosis

Background

Imaging may play an important role in identifying high‐risk plaques in patients who have carotid disease and who could benefit from surgical revascularization. We sought to evaluate the cost effectiveness of a decision‐making rule based on the ultrasound imaging assessment of plaque echolucency in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

Methods and Results

We used a decision‐analytic model to project lifetime quality‐adjusted life years and costs for 5 stroke prevention strategies: (1) medical therapy only; (2) revascularization if both plaque echolucency and stenosis progression to >90% are present; (3) revascularization only if plaque echolucency is present; (4) revascularization only if stenosis progression >90% is present; or (5) either plaque echolucency or stenosis progression is present. Risks of clinical events, costs, and quality‐of‐life values were estimated based on published sources and the analysis was conducted from a healthcare system perspective for asymptomatic patients with 70% to 89% carotid stenosis at presentation. Patients who did not undergo revascularization had the highest stroke events (17.6%) and lowest life‐years (8.45), while those who underwent revascularization on the basis of either presence of plaque echolucency on ultrasound or progression of carotid stenosis had the lowest stroke events (12.0%) and longest life‐years (14.41). The either plaque echolucency or progression‐based revascularization group had an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of $110 000/quality‐adjusted life years compared with the plaque echolucency‐based strategy, which had an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of $29 000/quality‐adjusted life years compared with the joint echolucency and progression‐based strategy.

Conclusions

Plaque echolucency on ultrasound can be a cost‐effective tool to identify patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis most likely to benefit from carotid endarterectomy.