Risk for tuberculosis in child contacts. Development and validation of a predictive score

Alert sign and symptoms for the early diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis: analysis of patients followed by a tertiary pediatric hospital

Background

Intercepting earlier suspected TB (Tuberculosis) cases clinically is necessary to reduce TB incidence, so we described signs and symptoms of retrospective cases of pulmonary TB and tried to evaluate which could be early warning signs.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of pulmonary TB cases in children in years 2005–2017; in years 2018–2020 we conducted a cohort prospective study enrolling patients < 18 years accessed to Emergency Department (ED) with signs/symptoms suggestive of pulmonary TB.

Results

In the retrospective analysis, 226 patients with pulmonary TB were studied. The most frequently described items were contact history (53.5%) and having parents from countries at risk (60.2%). Cough was referred in 49.5% of patients at onset, fever in 46%; these symptoms were persistent (lasting ≥ 10 days) in about 20%. Lymphadenopathy is described in 15.9%. The prospective study enrolled 85 patients of whom 14 (16.5%) were confirmed to be TB patients and 71 (83.5%) were non-TB cases. Lymphadenopathy and contact history were the most correlated variables. Fever and cough lasting ≥ 10 days were less frequently described in TB cases compared to non-TB patients (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

In low TB endemic countries, pulmonary TB at onset is characterized by different symptoms, i.e. persistent fever and cough are less described, while more relevant are contact history and lymphadenopathy. It was not possible to create a score because signs/symptoms usually suggestive of pulmonary TB (considered in the questionnaire) were not significant risk factors in our reality, a low TB country.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13052-022-01288-5.

Two Clinical Prediction Tools to Improve Tuberculosis Contact Investigation

BACKGROUND

Efficient contact investigation strategies are needed for the early diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) disease and treatment of latent TB infections.

METHODS

Between September 2009 and August 2012, we conducted a prospective cohort study in Lima, Peru, in which we enrolled and followed 14 044 household contacts of adults with pulmonary TB. We used information from a subset of this cohort to derive 2 clinical prediction tools that identify contacts of TB patients at elevated risk of progressing to active disease by training multivariable models that predict (1) coprevalent TB among all household contacts and (2) 1-year incident TB among adult contacts. We validated the models in a geographically distinct subcohort and compared the relative utilities of clinical decisions based on these tools to existing strategies.

RESULTS

In our cohort, 296 (2.1%) household contacts had coprevalent TB and 145 (1.9%) adult contacts developed incident TB within 1 year of index patient diagnosis. We predicted coprevalent disease using information that could be readily obtained at the time an index patient was diagnosed and predicted 1-year incident TB by including additional contact-specific characteristics. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for coprevalent TB and incident TB were 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], .83-.89]) and 0.72 (95% CI, .67-.77), respectively. These clinical tools give 5%-10% higher relative utilities than existing methods.

CONCLUSIONS

We present 2 tools that identify household contacts at high risk for TB disease based on reportable information from patient and contacts alone. The performance of these tools is comparable to biomarkers that are both more costly and less feasible than this approach.

Effect of ventilation improvement during a tuberculosis outbreak in underventilated university buildings

The role of ventilation in preventing tuberculosis (TB) transmission has been widely proposed in infection control guidance. However, conclusive evidence is lacking. Modeling suggested the threshold of ventilation rate to reduce effective reproductive ratio (ratio between new secondary infectious cases and source cases) of TB to below 1 is corresponding to a carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) level of 1000 parts per million (ppm). Here, we measured the effect of improving ventilation rate on a TB outbreak involving 27 TB cases and 1665 contacts in underventilated university buildings. Ventilation engineering decreased the maximum CO₂ levels from 3204 ± 50 ppm to 591-603 ppm. Thereafter, the secondary attack rate of new contacts in university dropped to zero (mean follow-up duration: 5.9 years). Exposure to source TB cases under CO₂ >1000 ppm indoor environment was a significant risk factor for contacts to become new infectious TB cases (P < .001). After adjusting for effects of contact investigation and latent TB infection treatment, improving ventilation rate to levels with CO₂ <1000 ppm was independently associated with a 97% decrease (95% CI: 50%-99.9%) in the incidence of TB among contacts. These results show that maintaining adequate indoor ventilation could be a highly effective strategy for controlling TB outbreaks.

Contacts of underserved tuberculosis patients have higher odds of TB disease in North West England: a cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between patients' social risk factors and the risk of tuberculous infection and TB disease among their contacts in England.

DESIGN

This was a cohort study of all TB cases from North West England diagnosed between 27 March 2012 and 28 June 2016. The social risk factors of TB cases were evaluated to estimate their need for enhanced case management (ECM), from 0 (standard of care) to 3 (intensive social support).

RESULTS

A total of 2139 cases and their 10 019 contacts met the eligibility criteria. Being a contact of a patient with smear-positive TB with high ECM or being of Black Caribbean ethnicity was independently associated with greater odds of active TB disease (smear-positive vs. smear-negative, OR 5.3, 95%CI 3.2-8.7; ECM-3 vs. ECM-0, OR 2.2, 95%CI 1.01-5.0; Black Caribbean vs. White, OR 7.4, 95%CI 2.1-25). Being a contact of a patient with smear-positive TB or of Black Caribbean ethnicity was also independently associated with greater odds of tuberculous infection (smear-positive vs. smear-negative, OR 5.3, 95%CI 3.8-7.3; and Black Caribbean vs. White, OR 6.7, 95%CI 2.0-25).

CONCLUSIONS

The social complexity and ethnicity of patients were associated with tuberculous infection and TB disease in their contacts.

Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System for Cephamycin-Associated Hemorrhagic Events

Cephamycin-associated hemorrhages have been reported since their launch. This research aimed to determine risk factors for cephamycin-associated hemorrhagic events and produce a risk scoring system using National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH) database. Patients who were older than 20 years old and consecutively used study antibiotics for more than 48 hours (epidode) at NTUH between January 1^st, 2009 and December 31^st, 2015 were included. The population was divided into two cohorts for evaluation of risk factors and validation of the scoring system. Multivariate logistic regression was used for the assessment of the adjusted association between factors and the outcome of interest. Results of the multivariate logistic regression were treated as the foundation to develop the risk scoring system. There were 46402 and 22681 episodes identified in 2009–2013 and 2014–2015 cohorts with 356 and 204 hemorrhagic events among respective cohorts. Use of cephamycins was associated with a higher risk for hemorrhagic outcomes (aOR 2.03, 95% CI 1.60–2.58). Other risk factors included chronic hepatic disease, at least 65 years old, prominent bleeding tendency, and bleeding history. A nine-score risk scoring system (AUROC = 0.8035, 95% CI 0.7794–0.8275; Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test p = 0.1044) was developed based on the identified risk factors, with higher scores indicating higher risk for bleeding. Use of cephamycins was associated with more hemorrhagic events compared with commonly used penicillins and cephalosporins. The established scoring system, CHABB, may help pharmacists identify high-risk patients and provide recommendations according to the predictive risk, and eventually enhance the overall quality of care.

Diagnosis and management of latent tuberculosis infection in Asia: Review of current status and challenges

Asia has the highest burden of tuberculosis (TB) and latent TB infection (LTBI) in the world. Optimizing the diagnosis and treatment of LTBI is one of the key strategies for achieving the WHO 'End TB' targets. We report the discussions from the Asia Latent TubERculosis (ALTER) expert panel meeting held in 2018 in Singapore. In this meeting, a group of 13 TB experts from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam convened to review the literature, discuss the barriers and propose strategies to improve the management of LTBI in Asia. Strategies for the optimization of risk group prioritization, diagnosis, treatment, and research of LTBI are reported. The perspectives presented herein, may help national programs and professional societies of the respective countries enhance the adoption of the WHO guidelines, scale-up the implementation of national guidelines based on the regional needs, and provide optimal guidance to clinicians for the programmatic management of LTBI.

T-SPOT®.TB test and clinical risk scoring for diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection among Thai healthcare workers

BACKGROUND

Screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is important to identify healthcare workers (HCWs) benefiting from preventive therapy. Interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) are sensitive and specific tests for LTBI diagnosis. However, in settings where IGRAs are not available, clinical risk assessment may be used as an alternative to diagnose LTBI.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among HCWs of a tertiary-care university hospital in Thailand. All HCWs underwent T-SPOT®.TB test (T-SPOT) and assessment of LTBI clinical risks. Clinical risks associated with T-SPOT positivity were determined by multivariable logistic regression analysis and were given scores accordingly. The performance of the clinical risk scoring was evaluated in comparison to T-SPOT.

RESULTS

Among 140 enrolled HCWs, 125 (89%) were females, the median age was 27 years and 23 (16%) had T-SPOT positivity. Independent factors associated with T-SPOT positivity were age ≥30 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.95; P = 0.002), working duration ≥60 months (aOR 3.75, P = 0.004) and frequency of TB contact ≥6 times (aOR 8.83, P = 0.005). The study's clinical risk scoring had the area under the curve by receiver operating curve analysis of 0.76 (P < 0.001) using T-SPOT positivity as a reference standard. The score of ≥3 had the best performance in diagnosing LTBI with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 70%, 71%, 32% and 92%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this setting where LTBI was prevalent among HCWs but IGRAs are not widely available, the clinical risk scoring may be used as an alternative to diagnose LTBI in HCWs.

A Risk Assessment Tool for Identifying Pregnant and Postpartum Women Who May Benefit From Preexposure Prophylaxis

Background

A human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk assessment tool for pregnant women could identify women who would most benefit from preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) while minimizing unnecessary PrEP exposure.

Methods

Data from a prospective study of incident HIV among pregnant/postpartum women in Kenya were randomly divided into derivation (n = 654) and validation (n = 650) cohorts. A risk score was derived using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and standard clinical prediction rules. Ability of the tool to predict maternal HIV acquisition was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) and Brier score.

Results

The final risk score included the following predictors: having a male partner with unknown HIV status, number of lifetime sexual partners, syphilis, bacterial vaginosis (BV), and vaginal candidiasis. In the derivation cohort, AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], .72-.95) and each point increment in score was associated with a 52% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.52 [95% CI, 1.32-1.76]; P < .001) increase in HIV risk; the Brier score was 0.11. In the validation cohort, the score had similar AUC, Brier score, and estimated HRs. A simplified score that excluded BV and candidiasis yielded an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI, .67-.85); HIV incidence was higher among women with risk scores >6 than with scores ≤6 (7.3 vs 1.1 per 100 person-years, respectively; P < .001). Women with simplified scores >6 accounted for 16% of the population but 56% of HIV acquisitions.

Conclusions

A combination of indicators routinely assessed in antenatal clinics was predictive of HIV risk and could be used to prioritize pregnant women for PrEP.

A score to predict and stratify risk of tuberculosis in adult contacts of tuberculosis index cases: a prospective derivation and external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Contacts of tuberculosis index cases are at increased risk of developing tuberculosis. Screening, preventive therapy, and surveillance for tuberculosis are underused interventions in contacts, particularly adults. We developed a score to predict risk of tuberculosis in adult contacts of tuberculosis index cases.

METHODS

In 2002-06, we recruited contacts aged 15 years or older of index cases with pulmonary tuberculosis who lived in desert shanty towns in Ventanilla, Peru. We followed up contacts for tuberculosis until February, 2016. We used a Cox proportional hazards model to identify index case, contact, and household risk factors for tuberculosis from which to derive a score and classify contacts as low, medium, or high risk. We validated the score in an urban community recruited in Callao, Peru, in 2014-15.

FINDINGS

In the derivation cohort, we identified 2017 contacts of 715 index cases, and median follow-up was 10·7 years (IQR 9·5-11·8). 178 (9%) of 2017 contacts developed tuberculosis during 19 147 person-years of follow-up (incidence 0·93 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 0·80-1·08). Risk factors for tuberculosis were body-mass index, previous tuberculosis, age, sustained exposure to the index case, the index case being in a male patient, lower community household socioeconomic position, indoor air pollution, previous tuberculosis among household members, and living in a household with a low number of windows per room. The 10-year risks of tuberculosis in the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups were, respectively, 2·8% (95% CI 1·7-4·4), 6·2% (4·8-8·1), and 20·6% (17·3-24·4). The 535 (27%) contacts classified as high risk accounted for 60% of the tuberculosis identified during follow-up. The score predicted tuberculosis independently of tuberculin skin test and index-case drug sensitivity results. In the external validation cohort, 65 (3%) of 1910 contacts developed tuberculosis during 3771 person-years of follow-up (incidence 1·7 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 1·4-2·2). The 2·5-year risks of tuberculosis in the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups were, respectively, 1·4% (95% CI 0·7-2·8), 3·9% (2·5-5·9), and 8·6%· (5·9-12·6).

INTERPRETATION

Our externally validated risk score could predict and stratify 10-year risk of developing tuberculosis in adult contacts, and could be used to prioritise tuberculosis control interventions for people most likely to benefit.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development Civil Society Challenge Fund, Joint Global Health Trials consortium, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Imperial College National Institutes of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics, Sir Halley Stewart Trust, WHO, TB REACH, and Innovation for Health and Development.

Efficacy of isoniazid salvage therapy for latent tuberculosis infection in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory disorders - A retrospective cohort study in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Active tuberculosis (TB) in patients with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) was associated with use of biological agents for immune-mediated inflammatory disorders (IMIDs). For decreasing active TB, isoniazid prophylaxis therapy was administered before biologic therapy among IMID patients with LTBI. However, for patients who had been received biologics for a long time with unknown status of LTBI or exposure history of active TB, the prevalence of LTBI and efficacy of isoniazid therapy were unclear.

METHOD

A retrospective cohort study was conducted during 2012-2014 in a tertiary medical center in Taiwan, and the incidence case of active TB was identified by the national TB registration system on October 1, 2015.

RESULTS

All 382 patients with 1532 person-years were followed up, the initial prevalence of LTBI by positive interferon-gamma releasing assay (IGRA+) was 17.5%. The prevalence of LTBI was increased in elder age (>20%, p < 0.05), chronic kidney disease (33%, p < 0.05), metabolic syndrome (26.3%, p < 0.05), but not related to the type of IMIDs or biologics. The crude incidences of TB were increased in elders (53.3/1000 person-year), abnormal chest film (49.6/1000 person-year), administration of tocilizumab (13.6/1000 person-year), and metabolic syndrome (56.1/1000 person-year), respectively. Among patents with LTBI, the incidence of active TB was lower in patients with isoniazid therapy (9.2/1000 person-year, p = 0.02) than without isoniazid therapy (92.2/1000 person-years), regardless the timing of initiating isoniazid therapy (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Isoniazid therapy can prevent active TB from LTBI despite of the timing of biologics administration.

Childhood Tuberculosis in a Sub-Saharan Tertiary Facility: Epidemiology and Factors Associated with Treatment Outcome

Childhood tuberculosis (TB) is a diagnostic challenge in developing countries, and patient outcome can be influenced by certain factors. We report the disease course, clinical profile and factors associated with treatment outcome in a tertiary facility of Kinshasa. Documentary and analytical studies were conducted using clinical and exploratory data for children aged up to 15 years who were admitted to the University Clinics of Kinshasa for TB. Data are presented as frequencies and averages, and binary and logistic regression analyses were performed. Of 283 children with TB, 82 (29.0%) had smear-negative TB, 40 (14.1%) had smear-positive TB, 159 (56.1%) had extra-pulmonary TB (EPTB), 2 (0.7%) had multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB), 167 (59.0%) completed treatment, 30 (10.6%) were cured, 7 (2.5%) failed treatment, 4 (1.4%) died, 55 (19.4%) were transferred to health centers nearest their home, and 20 (7.0%) were defaulters. In the binary analysis, reported TB contacts (p = 0.048), type of TB (p = 0.000), HIV status (p = 0.050), Ziehl-Nielsen test result (p = 0.000), Lowenstein culture (p = 0.004) and chest X-ray (p = 0.057) were associated with outcome. In the logistic regression, none of these factors was a significant predictor of outcome. Tertiary level care facilities must improve the diagnosis and care of patients with childhood TB, which justifies the development of alternative diagnostic techniques and the assessment of other factors that potentially affect outcome.

IL17a and IL21 combined with surgical status predict the outcome of ovarian cancer patients

Aside from tumor cells, ovarian cancer-related ascites contains the immune components. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a combination of clinical and immunological parameters can predict survival in patients with ovarian cancer. Ascites specimens and medical records from 144 ovarian cancer patients at our hospital were used as the derivation group to select target clinical and immunological factors to generate a risk-scoring system to predict patient survival. Eighty-two cases from another hospital were used as the validation group to evaluate this system. The surgical status and expression levels of interleukin 17a (IL17a) and IL21 in ascites were selected for the risk-scoring system in the derivation group. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of the overall score for disease-free survival (DFS) of the ovarian cancer patients were 0.84 in the derivation group, 0.85 in the validation group, and 0.84 for all the patients. The AUROC curves of the overall score for overall survival (OS) of cases were 0.78 in the derivation group, 0.76 in the validation group, and 0.76 for all the studied patients. Good correlations between overall risk score and survival of the ovarian cancer patients were demonstrated by sub-grouping all participants into four groups (P for trend <0.001 for DFS and OS). Therefore, acombination of clinical and immunological parameters can provide a practical scoring system to predict the survival of patients with ovarian carcinoma. IL17a and IL21 can potentially be used as prognostic and therapeutic biomarkers.

A Clinical Algorithm to Identify HIV Patients at High Risk for Incident Active Tuberculosis: A Prospective 5-Year Cohort Study

Background

Predicting the risk of tuberculosis (TB) in people living with HIV (PLHIV) using a single test is currently not possible. We aimed to develop and validate a clinical algorithm, using baseline CD4 cell counts, HIV viral load (pVL), and interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA), to identify PLHIV who are at high risk for incident active TB in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is routinely provided.

Materials and Methods

A prospective, 5-year, cohort study of adult PLHIV was conducted from 2006 to 2012 in two hospitals in Taiwan. HAART was initiated based on contemporary guidelines (CD4 count < = 350/μL). Cox regression was used to identify the predictors of active TB and to construct the algorithm. The validation cohorts included 1455 HIV-infected individuals from previous published studies. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated.

Results

Seventeen of 772 participants developed active TB during a median follow-up period of 5.21 years. Baseline CD4 < 350/μL or pVL ≥ 100,000/mL was a predictor of active TB (adjusted HR 4.87, 95% CI 1.49–15.90, P = 0.009). A positive baseline IGRA predicted TB in patients with baseline CD4 ≥ 350/μL and pVL < 100,000/mL (adjusted HR 6.09, 95% CI 1.52–24.40, P = 0.01). Compared with an IGRA-alone strategy, the algorithm improved the sensitivity from 37.5% to 76.5%, the negative predictive value from 98.5% to 99.2%. Compared with an untargeted strategy, the algorithm spared 468 (60.6%) from unnecessary TB preventive treatment. Area under the ROC curve was 0.692 (95% CI: 0.587–0.798) for the study cohort and 0.792 (95% CI: 0.776–0.808) and 0.766 in the 2 validation cohorts.

Conclusions

A validated algorithm incorporating the baseline CD4 cell count, HIV viral load, and IGRA status can be used to guide targeted TB preventive treatment in PLHIV in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where HAART is routinely provided to all PLHIV. The implementation of this algorithm will avoid unnecessary exposure of low-risk patients to drug toxicity and simultaneously, reduce the burden of universal treatment on the healthcare system.