Evaluation of an Ensemble Dispersion Calculation

Analysis of Wildfires in the Mid and High Latitudes Using a Multi-Dataset Approach: A Case Study in California and Krasnoyarsk Krai

In this study, we investigate the emissions from wildfires in the mid latitude (California) and high latitude (Krasnoyarsk Krai) during the periods of 16–17 August 2020 and 28 July 2019, respectively. Wildfires are unique in themselves as they are driven by various factors such as fuel type, topology, and meteorology. In this study, we analyze whether there are any major variations in the emissions and transport of pollutants between two large wildfire cases in the mid latitude of California and high latitude of Krasnoyarsk Krai. The study is important to understand and characterize the emission regime from biomass burning of different land covers using a mutli-dataset approach. We analyze whether there are any major variations in the emissions and transport of pollutants from these wildfires. For example, the aerosol extinction coefficient profile showed smoke detected at the highest altitude of 9 km in Krasnoyarsk Krai, whereas in California the highest altitude was observed at approximately 6 km. Moreover, large values of black carbon (BC) concentration were observed in Krasnoyarsk Krai approximately 7 µg/m3 compared to the 0.44 µg/m3 observed in California. Areas with an immense dense vegetation are prone to large emissions. The results from this case study suggest that high latitude wildfires emit more pollutants than mid latitude wildfires. However, more studies in the future will be conducted to conclude this observation and finding with certainty.

Atmospheric volatile halogenated hydrocarbons in air pollution episodes in an urban area of Beijing: Characterization, health risk assessment and sources apportionment

Volatile halogenated hydrocarbons (VHCs) have attracted wide attention in the atmospheric chemistry field since they not only affect the ecological environment but also damage human health. In order to better understand the characteristics, sources and health risks of VHCs in typical urban areas in Beijing, and also verify the achievement in implementing the Montreal Protocol (MP) in Beijing, observational studies on 22 atmospheric VHCs species were conducted during six air pollution episodes from December 2016 to May 2017. The range in daily mixing ratios of the 6 MP-regulated VHCs was 1000-1168 pptv, and the 16 MP-unregulated VHCs was 452-2961 pptv. The 16 MP-unregulated VHCs accounted for a relatively high concentration proportion among the 22 VHCs with a mean of 70.25%. Compared with other regions, the mixing ratios of MP-regulated VHCs were in the middle concentrations. The mixing ratios of the MP-regulated VHCs remained the same concentrations during the air pollution episodes, while the concentrations of MP-unregulated VHCs were generally higher on polluted days than on clean days and increased with the aggravation of the pollution episodes. The mixing ratios of dichlorodifluoromethane and trichlorofluoromethane were higher than Northern Hemisphere (NH) background values, while the mixing ratios of the other 4 MP-regulated VHCs were moderate and similar to the NH background values. All the 9 VHCs with carcinogenic risk might pose potential carcinogenic risks to the exposed populations in the six pollution episodes, while none of the 12 VHCs might pose appreciable non-carcinogenic risks to the exposed populations. Considering the higher concentration levels and higher risk values of 1,2-dichloropropane, 1,2-dichloroethane, carbon tetrachloride and trichloromethane, Beijing needs to further strengthen the control of these VHCs. The analysis of air mass transportation and PMF model showed that regional transportation and leakage of CFCs banks were important sources of VHCs in Beijing, and the contribution of industrial process and solvent usage should not be neglected. The results revealed the effective implementation of the MP in Beijing and its surrounding areas, while further measures are suggested to control the emissions of important VHCs especially from regional transportation and leakage of CFCs banks to reduce the possible health risks to the exposed population.

Perpetual atmospheric dry deposition exacerbates the unbalance of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus in coastal waters: A case study on a mariculture site in North China

The monthly magnitudes of dissolvable nutrients through atmospheric dry deposition (ADD) and their ecological effects to the coastal waters around the Yangma Island, North Yellow Sea, were investigated for one year. The results indicated that anthropogenic activities were the major sources of dissolvable inorganic and organic nitrogen (DIN and DON); dust events were the major sources of inorganic phosphorus (DIP) and silicate (DSi); however, organic phosphorus (DOP) could be originated from marine biological activities. The annual ADD fluxes of DIN, DON, DIP, DOP and DSi were 21.8, 2.7, 0.10, 0.30 and 0.73 mmol m^-2 yr^-1, respectively. Overall, the new production supported by the bioavailable nitrogen through ADD in winter was up to 9.14 mg C m^-2 d^-1. Notably, the annual molar ratio of DIN/DIP through ADD was 216 ± 123, which was much higher than that of the dissolved inorganic nitrogen to phosphorus in seawater and might exacerbate their unbalance in some coastal waters.

Long-range air pollution transport in East Asia during the first week of the COVID-19 lockdown in China

Long-range transport (LRT) of air pollutants from East Asia during the northeast monsoon season impacts several downwind locations. In 2020, the initial COVID-19 lockdowns in China overlapped with Week 3 of the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, and an Asian outflow event. Thus, movement of the Chinese populace from city to city was already greatly reduced by the time of the LRT episode, although the reductions in industrial output are less clear. We found NO₂ column concentrations were reduced by 24% during the CNY Week 3 this year compared to previous years. The attenuated transport event arrived to northern Taiwan with a PM_2.5 concentration <45 μg m^-3 and most often <35 μg m^-3, which is 2-3 times lower than LRT episodes of similar back-trajectory and synoptic patterns. The whole episode persisted for about 60 h, longer than most LRT episodes from China to Taiwan. CMAQ v5.2.1 modeling of the LRT event with 100% emission and reduced emission scenarios, revealed emissions in China were approximately 50% less than normal periods. Due to the length of the episode and the significant reduction in emissions, Taiwan avoided a PM_2.5 surplus of 19.2 μg m^-3 on average during the episode, equivalent to a 0.5 μg m^-3 reduction for the whole 3-month winter season. Employing the 100% emission model scenario and scaling up to the average episode hours each winter, the PM_2.5 surplus delivered via plumes on the northeast monsoon is equivalent to a 0.5 μg m^-3 surplus for the whole year.

Characterization of aerosols over the Great Barrier Reef: The influence of transported continental sources

The rapid environmental changes in Australia prompt a more thorough investigation of the influence of transportation, local emissions, and optical-chemical properties on aerosol production across the region. A month-long intensive measurement campaign was conducted during spring 2016 at Mission Beach, a remote coastal site west of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) on the north-east coast of Australia. One aerosol pollution episode was investigated in early October. This event was governed by meteorological conditions and characterized by the increase in black carbon (BC) mass concentration (averaged value of 0.35 ± 0.20 μg m^-3). Under the influence of the continental transportation, a new layer of nucleation-mode aerosols with an initial size diameter of 20 nm was observed and aerosol number concentrations reached the peak of 6733 cm^-3 at a diameter of 29 nm. The averaged aerosol extinction coefficient at the height of 2 km was 150 Mm^-1, with a small depolarized ratio (3.5-5%). Simultaneously, the boundary layer height presented a fall-rise trend in the presence of these enhanced aerosol concentrations and became stable in a later stage of the episode. We did not observe clear boundary layer height diurnal variations from the LiDAR observations or from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model outputs, except in an earlier stage of the aerosol episode for the former. Although the sea breeze may have been responsible for these particles, on the balance of available data, we suggest that the aerosol properties at the GBR surface during this period are more likely influenced by regional transportation of continental sources, including biomass-burning aerosols.

Validation of source detective system of the radionuclides measured in the atmosphere using a field tracer experiment

A source detective system has been developed to estimate unknown source regions and release rates of radionuclides released into the air from covert nuclear activities and accidents. This system is composed of trajectory, atmospheric dispersion, and source term estimation models. Simulated results were compared with the measurements of a field tracer experiment performed at the Yeonggwang nuclear power plant in Korea in May 1996. Two trajectories among five computed backward trajectories moved toward the original release point, and the comparative results contained some error due to single operation of the backward trajectory model. An atmospheric dispersion model was used to minimize the error of the trajectory model and to improve the accuracy of the source detective system. The results generated by the trajectory and atmospheric dispersion models together agreed better with the measurements than those obtained using the trajectory model alone.

A review of numerical models to predict the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides

The field of atmospheric dispersion modeling has evolved together with nuclear risk assessment and emergency response systems. Atmospheric concentration and deposition of radionuclides originating from an unintended release provide the basis of dose estimations and countermeasure strategies. To predict the atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides several numerical models are available coupled with numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. This work provides a review of the main concepts and different approaches of atmospheric dispersion modeling. Key processes of the atmospheric transport of radionuclides are emission, advection, turbulent diffusion, dry and wet deposition, radioactive decay and other physical and chemical transformations. A wide range of modeling software are available to simulate these processes with different physical assumptions, numerical approaches and implementation. The most appropriate modeling tool for a specific purpose can be selected based on the spatial scale, the complexity of meteorology, land surface and physical and chemical transformations, also considering the available data and computational resource. For most regulatory and operational applications, offline coupled NWP-dispersion systems are used, either with a local scale Gaussian, or a regional to global scale Eulerian or Lagrangian approach. The dispersion model results show large sensitivity on the accuracy of the coupled NWP model, especially through the description of planetary boundary layer turbulence, deep convection and wet deposition. Improvement of dispersion predictions can be achieved by online coupling of mesoscale meteorology and atmospheric transport models. The 2011 Fukushima event was the first large-scale nuclear accident where real-time prognostic dispersion modeling provided decision support. Dozens of dispersion models with different approaches were used for prognostic and retrospective simulations of the Fukushima release. An unknown release rate proved to be the largest factor of uncertainty, underlining the importance of inverse modeling and data assimilation in future developments.

Columnar and ground-level aerosol optical properties: sensitivity to the transboundary pollution, daily and weekly patterns, and relationships

Columnar and ground-level aerosol optical properties co-located in space and time and retrieved from sun/sky photometer and nephelometer measurements, respectively, have been analyzed to investigate the impact of local and transboundary pollution, to analyze their relationships, and hence to contribute to the aerosol load characterization over the Central Mediterranean. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 440 nm, the Ångström exponent (Å) calculated from the AOD at 440 and 675 nm, and the asymmetry parameter (g col ) at 440 nm represent the investigated columnar aerosol parameters. The scattering coefficient (σ p) at 450 nm, the scattering Ångström exponent (å) calculated from σ p at 450 and 635 nm, and the asymmetry parameter (g) at 450 nm are the corresponding ground-level parameters. It is shown that the columnar and ground-level aerosol properties were significantly and similarly affected by the main airflows identified with backtrajectory cluster analysis. The yearly averaged daily evolution of σ p, å, and g was fairly correlated to the one of the AOD, Å, and g col , respectively. These results indicate that the aerosol particles were on average characterized by similar yearly averaged optical properties up to the ground level. In particular, the yearly means of columnar and ground-level Ångström exponents, 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.1 ± 0.4, respectively, which are close to one, reveal a coarse-mode aerosol contribution in addition to the fine-mode particle contribution up to the ground level. Hourly means, day-by-day, and seasonal daily patterns of ground-level parameters were, however, very weakly correlated with the corresponding columnar parameters. The large impact of the local meteorology on the daily evolution of the ground-level aerosol properties, which makes the impact of long-range transported particles less apparent, was mainly responsible for these last results. It has also been found that columnar Ångström exponents much smaller than one may not be linked to å values smaller than 1. This may occurs when coarse-mode particle plumes, advected at high altitudes, do not penetrate inside the planetary boundary layer. Ångström exponents smaller than 1 are due to a significant contribution of coarse-mode particles as dust particles. Therefore, it is shown that å represents one of the best parameters to infer the contribution of coarse-mode particles at the ground level. The daily evolution of the aerosol properties referring to working days (Monday to Friday) and Sunday and the weekly cycle have suggested that the aerosol source contributions varied during the weekends. In particular, the AOD was characterized by a negative weekly cycle (higher AOD values during the weekend than during the weekdays), the Sunday σ p daily mean was 11 % larger than the Monday value, and å reached the highest value on Sunday. The impact up to the ground level of the weekdays' transboundary pollution, which reaches the monitoring site during the weekends, has likely contributed to these results.

Potential PM2.5 impacts of festival-related burning and other inputs on air quality in an urban area of southern Taiwan

The Mid-Autumn Festival (MAF), or Moon Festival, is a harvest festival in Taiwan, celebrated by families across the island with evening barbecues outside. This study investigated the potential impact of these activities on the air quality in Tainan, a city in southern Taiwan. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was examined in the period leading up to the MAF (pre-MAF), during the Festival (MAF), after the Festival (post-MAF), and in the period after this (a period of moderate air quality: MAQ). Gaseous pollutants in PM2.5 were, from highest to lowest mean concentration, NH3, SO2, HCl, HNO3, HNO2, and oxalic acid, while inorganic salts were mainly in the form of the photochemical products SO4(2-), NH4(+), and NO3(-). These inorganic salts accounted for 37.6%-44.5% of the PM2.5 mass concentration, while a further 26.3%-42.8% of the PM2.5 mass was total carbon (TC). TC was mostly composed of organic carbon (OC) produced by photochemical reactions. Of this, 9.8%-14.9% was carboxylates, of which oxalate was the most abundant compound, accounting for 22.8%-31.9% of carboxylates. The presence of phthalates in the PM2.5 indicated emissions from the plastics industry. Although a noticeable amount of aerosol was produced by festival activities and burning of softwood and hardwood, onshore air currents during the festival prevented potential high aerosol loading. During the moderate air quality period following post-MAF, the concentration of total carbohydrates was 1.44-2.64 times the amount during the festival. Levoglucosan and myo-inositol accounted for 81.7%-89.6% of the total carbohydrate concentration. The average Levo/Manno ratio was 18.64 ± 5.24. The concentration of levoglucosan was closely related to that of PO4(3-), erythritol, and galactose. Backward trajectories indicated that biomass burning in China affected the air quality of Tainan City.

Feasibility study of integral property retrieval for tropospheric aerosol from Raman lidar data using principal component analysis

A method is introduced to derive integral properties of the aerosol size distribution, e.g., aerosol mass, from tropospheric multiwavelength Raman lidar aerosol extinction and backscatter data, using an adapted form of the principal component analysis (PCA) technique. Since the refractive index of general tropospheric aerosols is variable and aerosol types can vary within one profile, an inversion technique applied in the troposphere should account for varying aerosol refractive indices. Using PCA, if a sufficiently complete set of appropriate refractive index dependent kernels is used, no a priori information about the aerosol type is necessary for the inversion of integral properties. In principle, the refractive index itself can be retrieved, but this quantity is more sensitive to measurement errors than the various integral properties of the aerosol size distribution. Here, the PCA technique adapted for use in the troposphere is introduced, the refractive index information content of the kernel sets is investigated, and error analyses are presented. The technique is then applied to actual tropospheric Raman lidar measurements.

Predicting the risk of soybean rust in Minnesota based on an integrated atmospheric model

To minimize crop loss by assisting in timely disease management and reducing fungicide use, an integrated atmospheric model was developed and tested for predicting the risk of occurrence of soybean rust in Minnesota. The model includes a long-range atmospheric spore transport and deposition module coupled to a leaf wetness module. The latter is required for spore germination and infection. Predictions are made on a daily basis for up to 7 days in advance using forecast data from the United States National Weather Service. Complementing the transport and leaf wetness modules, bulk (wet plus dry) atmospheric deposition samples from Minnesota were examined for soybean rust spores using a specific DNA test and sequence analysis. Overall, the risk prediction worked satisfactorily within the bounds of the uncertainty associated with the use of modeled 7-day weather forecasts, with more than 65% agreement between the model forecast and the DNA test results. The daily predictions are available as an advisory to the user community through the University of Minnesota Extension. However, users must take the actual decision to implement the disease management strategy.

Introduction of Asian Soybean Rust Urediniospores into the Midwestern United States-A Case Study

In 2005, weekly rain samples collected at 124 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites in the eastern and central United States were screened for Asian soybean rust (ASR; Phakopsora pachyrhizi) urediniospores. Application of a quantitative polymerase chain reaction method detected P. pachyrhizi DNA in the filter residue of rain samples collected during the week of 19 to 26 July 2005 in Minnesota, Missouri, and South Dakota. To determine the geographic origin of ASR urediniospores in those weekly composite samples, back air trajectories of the lifted condensation and mixed boundary layers were calculated for each rain event within the week, by sampling site. The calculations, based on the hybrid single-particle lagrangian integrated trajectory model, pointed to source areas in eastern and southern Texas. In a separate case, DNA of P. pachyrhizi was detected in a 28 June to 5 July 2005 rain sample from an eastern Texas site. Back trajectories pointed to southern Texas and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico as potential source areas of ASR urediniospores. Vertical motions of those back trajectories indicated a ventilation of the boundary layer in the upwind areas, suggesting the possible injection of urediniospores into the free troposphere where they can be transported for long distances before wet deposition.

Impact of the 2002 Canadian forest fires on particulate matter air quality in Baltimore city

With increasing evidence of adverse health effects associated with particulate matter (PM), the exposure impact of natural sources, such as forest fires, has substantial public health relevance. In addition to the threat to nearby communities, pollutants released from forest fires can travel thousands of kilometers to heavily populated urban areas. There was a dramatic increase in forest fire activity in the province of Quebec, Canada, during July 2002. The transport of PM released from these forest fires was examined using a combination of a moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer satellite image, back-trajectories using a hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory, and local light detection and ranging measurements. Time- and size-resolved PM was evaluated at three ambient and four indoor measurement sites using a combination of direct reading instruments (laser, time-of-flight aerosol spectrometer, nephelometer, and an oscillating microbalance). The transport and monitoring results consistently identified a forest fire related PM episode in Baltimore that occurred the first weekend of July 2002 and resulted in as much as a 30-fold increase in ambientfine PM. On the basis of tapered element oscillating microbalance measurements, the 24 h PM25 concentration reached 86 microg/m3 on July 7, 2002, exceeding the 24 h national ambient air quality standard. The episode was primarily comprised of particles less than 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter, highlighting the preferential transport of the fraction of PM that is of greatest health concern. Penetration of the ambient episode indoors was efficient (median indoor-to-outdoor ratio 0.91) such that the high ambient levels were similarly experienced indoors. These results are significant in demonstrating the impact of a natural source thousands of kilometers away on ambient levels of and potential exposures to air pollution within an urban center. This research highlights the significance of transboundary air pollution and the need for studies that assess the public health impacts associated with such sources and transport processes.