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Allan RP, Barlow M, Byrne MP, Cherchi A, Douville H, Fowler HJ, Gan TY, Pendergrass AG, Rosenfeld D, Swann ALS, Wilcox LJ, Zolina O. Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2020; 1472:49-75. [PMID: 32246848 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2019] [Revised: 03/03/2020] [Accepted: 03/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard P Allan
- Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
| | - Mathew Barlow
- Department of Environmental Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, Massachusetts
| | - Michael P Byrne
- School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, United Kingdom.,Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Annalisa Cherchi
- Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Sezione di Bologna, INGV, Bologna, Italy
| | - Hervé Douville
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - Hayley J Fowler
- University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
| | - Thian Y Gan
- University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | | | - Daniel Rosenfeld
- Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.,School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | | | - Laura J Wilcox
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
| | - Olga Zolina
- L'Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement/Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, L'Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France.,P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
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Yue Q, Jiang JH, Heymsfield A, Liou K, Gu Y, Sinha A. Combining In Situ and Satellite Observations to Understand the Vertical Structure of Tropical Anvil Cloud Microphysical Properties During the TC4 Experiment. EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE (HOBOKEN, N.J.) 2020; 7:e2020EA001147. [PMID: 32715026 PMCID: PMC7375154 DOI: 10.1029/2020ea001147] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2020] [Revised: 03/06/2020] [Accepted: 03/14/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Tropical anvil clouds have a profound impact on Earth's weather and climate. Their role in Earth's energy balance and hydrologic cycle is heavily modulated by the vertical structure of the microphysical properties for various hydrometeors in these clouds and their dependence on the ambient environmental conditions. Accurate representations of the variability and covariability of such vertical structures are key to both the satellite remote sensing of cloud and precipitation and numerical modeling of weather and climate, which remain a challenge. This study presents a new method to combine vertically resolved observations from CloudSat radar reflectivity and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation cloud masks with probability distributions of cloud microphysical properties and the ambient atmospheric conditions from detailed in situ measurements on tropical anvils sampled during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration TC4 (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling) mission. We focus on the microphysical properties of the vertical distribution of ice water content, particle size distributions, and effective sizes for different hydrometeors, including ice particles and supercooled liquid droplets. Results from this method are compared with those from in situ data alone and various CloudSat/Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation cloud retrievals. The sampling limitation of the field experiment and algorithm limitations in the current retrievals is highlighted, especially for the liquid cloud particles, while a generally good agreement with ice cloud microphysical properties is seen from different methods. While the method presented in this study is applied to tropical anvil clouds observed during TC4, it can be readily employed to study a broad range of ice clouds sampled by various field campaigns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qing Yue
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Jonathan H. Jiang
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - Andrew Heymsfield
- Mesoscale and Microscale MeteorologyNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderCOUSA
| | - Kuo‐Nan Liou
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and EngineeringUniversity of CaliforniaLos AngelesCAUSA
| | - Yu Gu
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and EngineeringUniversity of CaliforniaLos AngelesCAUSA
| | - Arushi Sinha
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and EngineeringUniversity of CaliforniaLos AngelesCAUSA
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A Review of Ice Cloud Optical Property Models for Passive Satellite Remote Sensing. ATMOSPHERE 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos9120499] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The current wealth of spaceborne passive and active measurements from ultraviolet to the infrared wavelengths provides an unprecedented opportunity to construct ice cloud bulk optical property models that lead to consistent ice cloud property retrievals across multiple sensors and platforms. To infer the microphysical and radiative properties of ice clouds from these satellite measurements, the general approach is to assume an ice cloud optical property model that implicitly assumes the habit (shape) and size distributions of the ice particles in these clouds. The assumption is that this ice optical property model will be adequate for global retrievals. In this review paper, we first summarize the key optical properties of individual particles and then the bulk radiative properties of their ensemble, followed by a review of the ice cloud models developed for application to satellite remote sensing. We illustrate that the random orientation condition assumed for ice particles is arguably justified for passive remote sensing applications based on radiometric measurements. The focus of the present discussion is on the ice models used by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) science teams. In addition, we briefly review the ice cloud models adopted by the Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectance (POLDER) and the Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) for ice cloud retrievals. We find that both the MODIS Collection 6 ice model and the CERES two-habit model result in spectrally consistent retrievals.
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Way M, Del Genio AD, Aleinov I, Clune TL, Kelley M, Kiang NY. Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets I: 3-D Model Simulations. THE ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL. SUPPLEMENT SERIES 2018; 239:24. [PMID: 30948861 PMCID: PMC6443379 DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/aae9e1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
We present a large ensemble of simulations of an Earth-like world with increasing insolation and rotation rate. Unlike previous work utilizing idealized aquaplanet configurations we focus our simulations on modern Earth-like topography. The orbital period is the same as modern Earth, but with zero obliquity and eccentricity. The atmosphere is 1 bar N2-dominated with CO2=400 ppmv and CH4=1 ppmv. The simulations include two types of oceans; one without ocean heat transport (OHT) between grid cells as has been commonly used in the exoplanet literature, while the other is a fully coupled dynamic bathtub type ocean. The dynamical regime transitions that occur as day length increases induce climate feedbacks producing cooler temperatures, first via the reduction of water vapor with increasing rotation period despite decreasing shortwave cooling by clouds, and then via decreasing water vapor and increasing shortwave cloud cooling, except at the highest insolations. Simulations without OHT are more sensitive to insolation changes for fast rotations while slower rotations are relatively insensitive to ocean choice. OHT runs with faster rotations tend to be similar with gyres transporting heat poleward making them warmer than those without OHT. For slower rotations OHT is directed equator-ward and no high latitude gyres are apparent. Uncertainties in cloud parameterization preclude a precise determination of habitability but do not affect robust aspects of exoplanet climate sensitivity. This is the first paper in a series that will investigate aspects of habitability in the simulations presented herein. The datasets from this study are opensource and publicly available.
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Affiliation(s)
- M.J. Way
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, 10025, USA
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 75120, Sweden
| | - Anthony D. Del Genio
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Igor Aleinov
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, 10025, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
| | - Thomas L. Clune
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA
| | - Maxwell Kelley
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Nancy Y. Kiang
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, 10025, USA
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Jiang JH, Yue Q, Su H, Reising SC, Kangaslahti PP, Deal WR, Schlecht ET, Wu L, Evans KF. A simulation of ice cloud particle size, humidity, and temperature measurements from the TWICE CubeSat. EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE (HOBOKEN, N.J.) 2017; 4:574-587. [PMID: 29104900 PMCID: PMC5656330 DOI: 10.1002/2017ea000296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2017] [Revised: 07/07/2017] [Accepted: 07/20/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
This paper describes a forward radiative transfer model and retrieval system (FMRS) for the Tropospheric Water and cloud ICE (TWICE) CubeSat instrument. We use the FMRS to simulate radiances for the TWICE's 14 millimeter- and submillimeter-wavelength channels for a tropical atmospheric state produced by a Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation. We also perform simultaneous retrievals of cloud ice particle size, ice water content (IWC), water vapor content (H2O), and temperature from the simulated TWICE radiances using the FMRS. We show that the TWICE instrument is capable of retrieving ice particle size in the range of ~50-1000 μm in mass mean effective diameter with approximately 50% uncertainty. The uncertainties of other retrievals from TWICE are about 1 K for temperature, 50% for IWC, and 20% for H2O.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan H. Jiang
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCaliforniaUSA
| | - Qing Yue
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCaliforniaUSA
| | - Hui Su
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCaliforniaUSA
| | - Steven C. Reising
- Microwave Systems LaboratoryColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
| | - Pekka P. Kangaslahti
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCaliforniaUSA
| | | | - Erich T. Schlecht
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCaliforniaUSA
| | - Longtao Wu
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCaliforniaUSA
| | - K. Franklin Evans
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderColoradoUSA
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Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2017. [DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/aa7a06] [Citation(s) in RCA: 84] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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Su H, Jiang JH, Neelin JD, Shen TJ, Zhai C, Yue Q, Wang Z, Huang L, Choi YS, Stephens GL, Yung YL. Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate. Nat Commun 2017; 8:15771. [PMID: 28589940 PMCID: PMC5467267 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15771] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2016] [Accepted: 04/27/2017] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dTs and global-mean dP/dTs, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ∼20 models analysed in this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Su
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Mail Stop 183-701, Pasadena, California 91109-8099, USA
| | - Jonathan H. Jiang
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Mail Stop 183-701, Pasadena, California 91109-8099, USA
| | - J. David Neelin
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA
| | - T. Janice Shen
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Mail Stop 183-701, Pasadena, California 91109-8099, USA
| | - Chengxing Zhai
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Mail Stop 183-701, Pasadena, California 91109-8099, USA
| | - Qing Yue
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Mail Stop 183-701, Pasadena, California 91109-8099, USA
| | - Zhien Wang
- Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA
| | - Lei Huang
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Mail Stop 183-701, Pasadena, California 91109-8099, USA
- Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA
| | - Yong-Sang Choi
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 120-750, South Korea
| | - Graeme L. Stephens
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Mail Stop 183-701, Pasadena, California 91109-8099, USA
| | - Yuk L. Yung
- Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125, USA
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