Modeling the long-term persistence of hepatitis A antibody after a two-dose vaccination schedule in Argentinean children

BACKGROUND

Long-term seroprotection data are essential for decision-making on the need and timing of vaccine boosters. Based on data from longitudinal serological studies, modeling can provide estimates on long-term antibody persistence and inform such decision-making.

METHODS

We examined long-term anti-hepatitis A virus (anti-HAV) antibody persistence in Argentinean children ≤15 years after the initial study where they completed a 2-dose course of inactivated hepatitis A vaccine (Avaxim 80U Pediatric, Sanofi Pasteur, Lyon, France). Blood serum samples were taken at baseline, 2 weeks (post first dose), 6 months (pre-booster), 6.5 months (post-booster), 10 years and 14-15 years after first vaccine dose. We fitted 8 statistical model types, predominantly mixed effects models, to anti-HAV persistence data, to identify the most appropriate and best fitting models for our data set and to predict individuals' anti-HAV levels and seroprotection rates up to 30 years post vaccination.

RESULTS

Fifty-four children (mean age at enrollment 30.4 months) were enrolled up to 15 years post first vaccine dose. There were 3 distinct periods of antibody concentration: rapid rise up to peak concentration post-booster, rapid decay from post-booster to 10 years, followed by slower decay. A 3-segmented linear mixed effects model was the most appropriate for the data set. Extrapolating based on the available 14-15-year follow-up, the analysis predicted that 88% of individuals anti-HAV seronegative prior to vaccination would remain seroprotected at 30 years post vaccination and lifelong seroprotection for vaccinees seropositive prior to vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Currently available data demonstrate that Avaxim 80U Pediatric confers to most vaccinees a high level of seroprotection against hepatitis A infection for at least 20-30 years.

Duration of Neutralizing Antibody Titer after Japanese Encephalitis Vaccination

In paired serum samples collected from 17 children, we measured neutralizing antibody (NTAb) titers after the second series of routine Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccination in Japan to estimate the duration of NTAb titer when children did not receive the third series of routine vaccination by applying a random coefficient model. We also measured NTAb titers in adult serum samples to confirm the duration of NTAb titer estimated in the analysis of pediatric serum samples. In the absence of the third series of routine vaccination, 18% (3/17), 47% (8/17), 82% (14/17) and 100% (17/17) of children were estimated to become NTAb negative at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years after the second series of routine vaccination, respectively. Of 38 adults, 39.5% (15/38) became NTAb negative; the percentage was somewhat lower than that of antibody-negative children. The results suggested that JE vaccination schedule should be reevaluated in the future.

Long-term durability of immune responses after hepatitis A vaccination among HIV-infected adults

BACKGROUND

Vaccination provides long-term immunity to hepatitis A virus (HAV) among the general population, but there are no such data regarding vaccine durability among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults.

METHODS

We retrospectively studied HIV-infected adults who had received 2 doses of HAV vaccine. We analyzed blood specimens taken at 1 year, 3 years, and, when available, 6-10 years postvaccination. HAV immunoglobulin G (IgG) values of ≥10 mIU/mL were considered seropositive.

RESULTS

We evaluated specimens from 130 HIV-infected adults with a median age of 35 years and a median CD4 cell count of 461 cells/mm(3) at or before time of vaccination. Of these, 49% had an HIV RNA load <1000 copies/mL. Initial vaccine responses were achieved in 89% of HIV-infected adults (95% confidence interval [CI], 83%-94%), compared with 100% (95% CI, 99%-100%) of historical HIV-uninfected adults. Among initial HIV-infected responders with available specimens, 90% (104 of 116; 95% CI, 83%-95%) remained seropositive at 3 years and 85% (63 of 74; 95% CI, 75%-92%) at 6-10 years. Geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) among HIV-infected adults were 154, 111, and 64 mIU/mL at 1, 3, and 6-10 years, respectively, compared with 1734, 687, and 684 mIU/mL among HIV-uninfected persons. Higher GMCs over time among HIV-infected adults were associated with lower log(10) HIV RNA levels (β = -.12, P = .04).

CONCLUSIONS

Most adults with well-controlled HIV infections had durable seropositive responses up to 6-10 years after HAV vaccination. Suppressed HIV RNA levels are associated with durable HAV responses.

Measuring the public-health impact of candidate HIV vaccines as part of the licensing process

The full impact of vaccines against infectious diseases is manifest at both the individual and the community levels. We argue that evaluating the community-level impact of HIV vaccine candidates should be an integral part of the licensing process. We describe a framework for the public-health evaluation of an HIV vaccine, which is based on the interactive use of mathematical models and community randomised clinical trials (C-RCTs) following completion of individual-based clinical trials (I-RCTs). Mathematical models of HIV vaccine can be used to take public-health considerations into account during the licensing process and can also help to select promising vaccine candidates for testing in C-RCTs. We also describe community and individual-based measures useful for defining public-health criteria necessary to guide the licensing process. To move forward, it is crucial to reach a consensus on what should constitute adequate public-health criteria. At the very least, a suitable vaccine would provide some individual benefit to vaccinees and not be detrimental to the population at large. In future I-RCTs and C-RCTs, quantifying each protective vaccine characteristic (eg, reductions in susceptibility or viral load) is important if regulators are to evaluate adequately the potential community-level impact of the vaccine across different settings, populations, and conditions of use.

Increase in invasive pneumococcal disease in children associated with shortage of heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine

The authors investigated the impact of heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) shortage on the rate of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Vaccination status and number of doses delivered was determined. Regression analysis using an exponential decay model was used to predict the expected rate of IPD in the shortage period if IPD continued to decline at the same rate as in the availability period. The rate of IPD decreased from 15.5 to 6.5 with vaccine availability (P < .00001) and increased to 7.2 with shortage (P = .69). Based on the model, IPD rate would have been 3.6 if the decrease continued at the same rate when there was no shortage; this was statistically significant (95% prediction interval, 2.7-4.1). The rate of IPD correlated directly with the number of PCV7 doses delivered, r = -.98. Continuous availability of the PCV7 would have resulted in a statistically significant lower IPD rate compared to the measured IPD rate in the vaccine shortage period.

Vaccine Clinical Trials – A Statistical Primer

We discuss some of the key statistical issues that arise in all stages of vaccine development and, where necessary, contrast drug and vaccine clinical trials.