Population stabilization and national spatial policy of public investment: the Japanese experience

Interregional gross migration and structural changes in local industries

"In this paper the impacts of structural changes in local industries on interregional gross migration in Japan for 1974-85 are empirically examined. Structural changes in local industries, which are represented by a simple index of local employment growth dispersion across sectors, induce interregional migration, as well as intraregional migration. The estimation results with pooled data support this hypothesis. The impacts of structural changes in local industries are different across gross migration flows (rural-urban, urban-rural, urban-urban, and rural-rural migration), as are the impacts of other determinants of migration such as earnings differentials, aggregate employment growth, national unemployment, distance, and age structure."

Interregional income differentials and migration: their interrelationships

"The major objective of this paper is to demonstrate that interregional income differential is exogenous to interregional net migration, but not conversely. Utilizing Japanese prefectural-based data for 1954-82, we conduct the following three kinds of analyses to confirm this statement. Firstly, a simple comparison of the crests of interregional time-series plots was made to see which occurred first. Secondly, Sims', 1972, test of causality was done to investigate causation between urban/rural income differential and net migration. Finally, per capita income and population share were examined by two-dimensional phase diagram for nine regions." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER)

The emergence of migration cycles?

"With a more thorough examination of population changes in the Tokyo region, this article confirms with regard to Japan the reconcentrating trend of urban population observed more clearly elsewhere by Cochrane and Vining (1988). Through an examination of the factors which led to the turnaround in the 1980s in Japan and elsewhere, it is argued that conservative economic policy, as manifested by deregulation and privatization, is the principal cause for reconcentration of urbanization in the 1980s in the economically advanced Western countries."

Population redistribution towards core areas of less developed countries, 1950-1980

"This paper presents estimates of the rate of population redistribution to the core areas of 44 developing countries over the period 1950-80. Particular attention is given to the period 1970-80, a time during which the core areas of developed countries experienced substantial declines in their rates of net inmigration. The principal finding is that the core areas of most developing countries are still experiencing high and, in a number of cases, increasing rates of net inmigration." The author contends that "this finding confirms the developmental model of spatial concentration and dispersal and should lay to rest other explanations of deconcentration, including arguments that focus on diseconomies of absolute size in the core area or on fluctuations in the aggregate economy." The difference between the population growth rates of entire nations and of core areas is used as a measure of interregional migration. Data for the 44 countries and information on the data sources are included in appendixes.