Developing and validating a novel nomogram used a competing-risks model for predicting the prognosis of primary fallopian tube carcinoma: a retrospective study based on the SEER database

Background

The current prognostic methods for primary fallopian tube carcinoma (PFTC) are inadequate. This study is the first to use a competing-risks model to perform an accurate analysis of the prognostic factors for PFTC cause-specific death (CSD). We used the model to established a nomogram for the 3-, 5-, and 8-year CSD rates based on the identified prognostic factors.

Methods

This study selected 1,924 patients from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database. The cumulative incidence function (CIF) was used in univariate analyses, and Gray’s test was used to determine the intergroup difference in the CIF. We then used the subdistribution proportional hazards model in a multivariate analysis. We finally used the prognostic factors identified in the analysis of the competing-risks model to construct a 3-, 5-, and 8-year CSD nomogram for PFTC patients. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots were used to evaluate the discrimination ability and consistency of the model.

Results

The subdistribution proportional hazards model showed that age, histological type, FIGO stage, and the log of the ratio between the numbers of positive and negative lymph nodes (LODDS) were independent prognostic factors for CSD. The 3-, 5-, and 8-year C-indexes were 0.744, 0.744, and 0.733 in the training cohort, and 0.737, 0.748, and 0.721 in the validation cohort. In the calibration plots, the forecast lines were very close to the reference lines.

Conclusions

This study is the first to analyze the prognostic factors for PFTC based on a competing-risks model. This model indicates that age, histological type, FIGO stage, and LODDS are significant prognostic factors affecting CSD in PFTC patients. We have also constructed the first 3-, 5-, and 8-year CSD nomogram for PFTC patients. This nomogram exhibits good discrimination ability and accuracy and can help clinicians to provide individualized prognostic analysis for PFTC patients.

Epidemiology, prognostic factors, and management of malignant odontogenic tumors: an analysis of 295 cases

OBJECTIVE

To determine the demographic characteristics, prognostic factors, and management for patients diagnosed with a malignant odontogenic tumor (MOT).

STUDY DESIGN

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry was reviewed for patients diagnosed with MOT from 1973 to 2011. Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed on patient demographic characteristics and pathologic variables.

RESULTS

The SEER database identified 295 MOT patients. The mean age at diagnosis was 50.5 years (range 5-89 years). Of these patients, 61.7% were male and 38.3% were female. The racial composition was 66.4% White, 22% Black, 6.1% Asian, 3.1% Pacific Islander, 0.3% Native American, and 2.1% Other/Unknown. Kaplan-Meier analysis found an overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) at 5 years of 54% and 67%, respectively. Multivariate analysis of the entire cohort found that age and stage were predictors of OS and that age was a predictor for DSS. For stage I/II MOTs, age and surgical therapy were predictors of OS and DSS, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Here we report the largest study to date investigating demographic characteristics, prognostic factors, and management of MOT patients. Determinants of survival for OS and DSS include age, stage, and surgical therapy.