Cardiac surgery score (CASUS) improves outcome prediction in patients treated with extracorporal life support (ECLS)

Predictive models in extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO): a systematic review

PURPOSE

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has been increasingly used in the last years to provide hemodynamic and respiratory support in critically ill patients. In this scenario, prognostic scores remain essential to choose which patients should initiate ECMO. This systematic review aims to assess the current landscape and inform subsequent efforts in the development of risk prediction tools for ECMO.

METHODS

PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE and Scopus were consulted. Articles between Jan 2011 and Feb 2022, including adults undergoing ECMO reporting a newly developed and validated predictive model for mortality, were included. Studies based on animal models, systematic reviews, case reports and conference abstracts were excluded. Data extraction aimed to capture study characteristics, risk model characteristics and model performance. The risk of bias was evaluated through the prediction model risk-of-bias assessment tool (PROBAST). The protocol has been registered in Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/fevw5 ).

RESULTS

Twenty-six prognostic scores for in-hospital mortality were identified, with a study size ranging from 60 to 4557 patients. The most common candidate variables were age, lactate concentration, creatinine concentration, bilirubin concentration and days in mechanical ventilation prior to ECMO. Five out of 16 venous-arterial (VA)-ECMO scores and 3 out of 9 veno-venous (VV)-ECMO scores had been validated externally. Additionally, one score was developed for both VA and VV populations. No score was judged at low risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

Most models have not been validated externally and apply after ECMO initiation; thus, some uncertainty whether ECMO should be initiated still remains. It has yet to be determined whether and to what extent a new methodological perspective may enhance the performance of predictive models for ECMO, with the ultimate goal to implement a model that positively influences patient outcomes.

Risk factors for adverse outcomes after left ventricular assist device implantation and extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation

Left ventricular assist device implantation following extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation has been associated with ambivalent results. In a series of patients who underwent left ventricular assist device implantation after extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation, we investigated whether the outcome can be predicted by preoperative risk factors or established risk scores. Primary endpoint was a composite of mortality and severe neurological disabling over 1 year of follow-up. To assess predictors of the primary endpoint, we performed univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Of the 40 patients included, 24 patients (60%) experienced the primary endpoint. Renal replacement therapy and the Vasoactive-Inotropic Score were independently associated regarding the primary endpoint with a hazard ratio for renal replacement therapy of 2.50 (95% confidence interval: 1.09–5.70; P = 0.021) and for the Vasoactive-Inotropic Score of 1.02 per unit (95% confidence interval: 1.00–1.03; P = 0.040). The risk of experiencing an unfavorable outcome during follow-up in patients with a Vasoactive-Inotropic Score of 20 who needed renal replacement therapy or did not need renal replacement therapy was 78% and 54%, respectively. Our data indicate that a decision to implant a left ventricular assist device in patients requiring renal replacement therapy and revealing a high Vasoactive-Inotropic Score after extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation should be reached with caution.