Comparison of CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores for predicting the incidence of atrial fibrillation among patients with end-stage renal disease

Usefulness of the C2HEST score to predict new onset atrial fibrillation. A systematic review and meta-analysis on >11 million subjects

BACKGROUND

The incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is increasing in the last decades. NOAF is associated with worse long-term prognosis. The C2HEST score has been recently proposed to stratify the risk of NOAF. Pooled data on the performance of the C2HEST score are lacking.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies reporting data on NOAF according to the C2HEST score. We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Google scholar databases without time restrictions until June 2023 according to PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analysis of the area under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and a sensitivity analysis according to setting of care and countries were performed.

RESULTS

Of 360 studies, 17 were included in the analysis accounting for 11,067,496 subjects/patients with 307,869 NOAF cases. Mean age ranged from 41.3 to 71.2 years. The prevalence of women ranged from 10.6 to 54.75%. The pooled analysis gave an AUC of .70 (95% CI .66-.74). A subgroup analysis on studies from general population/primary care yielded an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.64-0.75). In the subgroup of patients with cardiovascular disease, the AUC was .71 (.69-.79). The C2HEST score performed similarly in Asian (AUC .72, 95% CI .68-.77), and in Western patients (AUC .68, 95% CI .62-.75). The best performance was observed in studies with a mean age <50 years (n = 3,144,704 with 25,538 NOAF, AUC .78, 95% CI .76-.79).

CONCLUSION

The C2HEST score may be used to predict NOAF in primary and secondary prevention patients, and in patients across different countries. Early detection of NOAF may aid prompt initiation of management and follow-up, potentially leading to a reduction of AF-related complications.

Association of Mitral Regurgitation with Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Critically Ill Noncardiac Surgery Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in critically ill patients and can have serious consequences. Postoperative AF (POAF) in critically ill patients following noncardiac surgery has been understudied, contrary to cardiac procedures. Mitral regurgitation (MR) is associated with left ventricular dysfunction, which might contribute to the occurrence of AF in postoperative critically ill patients. This study aimed to investigate the association between MR and POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients and establish a new nomogram for the prediction of POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients.

Patients and Methods

A prospective cohort of 2474 patients who underwent thoracic and general surgery was enrolled in this study. Data on preoperative transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), electrocardiogram (ECG), and several commonly utilized scoring systems (CHA2DS2-VASc, HATCH, COM-AF, HART, and C2HEST) and baseline clinical data were collected. Independent predictors were selected by univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram was constructed for POAF within 7 days after postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The ability of the MR-nomogram and other scoring systems to predict POAF was compared by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA). Additional contributions were evaluated by integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis.

Results

A total of 213 (8.6%) patients developed POAF within 7 days after ICU admission. Compared to CHA2DS2-VASc, HATCH, COM-AF, HART, and C2HEST scoring systems, MR-nomogram showed better predictive ability for POAF with an area under the ROC curve of 0.824 (95% confidence interval: 0.805-0.842, p < 0.001). The improvement of the MR-nomogram in predictive value was supported by NRI and IDI analysis. The net benefit of the MR nomogram was maximal in DCA.

Conclusion

MR is an independent risk factor of POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients. The nomogram predicted POAF better than other scoring systems.

C2HEST score for atrial fibrillation risk prediction models: a Diagnostic Accuracy Tests meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

This meta-analysis aimed to assess the value of the C₂HEST score to facilitate population screening and detection of AF risk in millions of populations and validate risk scores and their composition and discriminatory power for identifying people at high or low risk of AF. We searched major indexing databases, including Pubmed/Medline, ISI web of science, Scopus, Embase, and Cochrane central, using ("C2HEST" OR "risk scoring system" OR "risk score") AND ("atrial fibrillation (AF)" OR "atrial flutter" OR "tachycardia, supraventricular" OR "heart atrium flutter") without any language, study region or study type restrictions between 1990 and 2021 years. Analyses were done using Meta-DiSc. The title and abstract screening were conducted by two independent investigators.

RESULTS

Totally 679 records were found through the initial search, of which ultimately, nine articles were included in the qualitative and quantitative analyses. The risk of AF accompanied every one-point increase of C₂HEST score (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05, p < 0.00001), with a high heterogeneity across studies (I² = 100%). The SROC for C₂HEST score in the prediction of AF showed that the overall area under the curve (AUC) was 0.91 (95% CI 0.85-0.96), AUC in Asian population was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78-0.95) versus non-Asian 0.95 (95% CI 0.91-0.99), and in general population was 0.92 (95% CI 0.85-0.99) versus those with chronic conditions 0.83 (95% CI 0.71-0.95), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this research support the idea that this quick score has the opportunity for use as a risk assessment in patients' AF screening strategies.

Refining age stratum of the C2HEST score for predicting incident atrial fibrillation in a hospital-based Chinese population

BACKGROUND

The C₂HEST score (C₂: coronary artery disease [CAD] / chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] (1 point each); H: Hypertension; E: Elderly (Age≥75, doubled); S: Systolic heart failure (doubled); T: Thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism)) has been validated to predict incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Its performance in the hospital-based Chinese population has never been evaluated.

METHODS

Risk factors for incident AF were investigated in a hospital-based population. Comparison of the C₂HEST score and other clinical scores with the capacity of predicting incident AF was conducted using area under the curves (AUC), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discriminative improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA). An age-stratified criterion was used to refine the C₂HEST score to form a modified C₂HEST score (mC₂HEST). The performance of the mC₂HEST score was also evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 23,523 patients entered the study with 520 developed AF during 2.84 ± 3.56 years of follow-up. Risk factors for incident AF included age, male sex, hypertension, CAD, COPD, previous ischemic stroke, hyperthyroidism, and heart failure. Age ≥65 years has significantly increased the risk of AF, which was considered as the age cutoff for a modified C₂HEST score (mC₂HEST). The risk of AF increased by 89% per one-point increase of the mC₂HEST score. The mC₂HEST score showed better predictive performance (AUC of 0.809) compared with the original C₂HEST (AUC of 0.752), CHA₂DS₂-VASc (0.756), HATCH (0.722), and HAVOC (0.758) scores, also as estimated by IDI, NRI and DCA. Among those enrolled after 2012, the mC₂HEST score had numerically higher AUC (0.849) compared with the C₂HEST score (0.826) and the other scores.

CONCLUSION

In a hospital-based Chinese population, by refining the age strata of the original C₂HEST score, the mC₂HEST score had significantly increased predictive accuracy and discriminative capability for incident AF. The clinical benefits of the application of novel mC₂HEST score needs further validation in multiple settings.