Analyzing Health-Related Quality of Life in the EVOLVE Trial: The Joint Impact of Treatment and Clinical Events

Psychometric Properties of the EQ-5D-5L in Patients with Alopecia Areata

BACKGROUND

For many decision makers in Health Technology Assessment the EQ-5D-5L is the standard measure of health-related quality of life (HRQL). However, evidence has shown the limitations of the measure in certain disease areas, including dermatology. Alopecia areata (AA) is associated with a significant HRQL impact, partly due to the emotional impact of hair loss.

OBJECTIVES

This study explores the psychometric properties of the EQ-5D-5L in people with AA in reference to the short-form 36 version 2 (SF-36v2), the Alopecia Areata Patient Priority Outcomes (AAPPO), the Severity of Alopecia Tool (SALT) and the Patient Global Impressions of Change (PGI-C).

METHODS

Data from participants with AA enrolled in the ALLEGRO-2b/3 trial (NCT03732807) of ritlecitinib were analysed. Participants completed the AAPPO measure (an AA-specific measure assessing emotional symptoms and activity limitations), PGI-C, EQ-5D-5L and SF-36v2 across 48-weeks of follow up. Extent of scalp hair loss was assessed using the SALT. Ceiling effects, known groups validity, convergent validity and responsiveness were examined. Known groups were defined by SALT score and a PGI-C defined response from baseline. Exploratory factor analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

Data were available from 612 adult participants. Ceiling effects were observed for the EQ-5D-5L (55.3-61.2%) and analyses suggested that the EQ-5D did not capture important differences between patients that the SF-36v2 did. The EQ-5D-5L very weakly correlated with SALT score, whereas the AAPPO correlated more strongly with the extent of hair loss. Compared with the EQ-5D-5L, the AAPPO was better able to discriminate between known groups defined by SALT and PGI-C. An exploratory factor analysis suggested that the EQ-5D-5L had limitations in content validity compared with the AAPPO.

CONCLUSIONS

The EQ-5D-5L may not adequately measure the burden of AA on patients' HRQL. Insensitivity to the burden of AA suggests that the EQ-5D-5L may not measure treatment-related benefit with hair regrowth. Data from other measures could be considered if they are shown to be more relevant.

Cost-effectiveness of finerenone in chronic kidney disease associated with type 2 diabetes in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND

In the Netherlands, more than one million patients have type 2 diabetes (T2D), and approximately 36% of these patients have chronic kidney disease (CKD). Yearly medical costs related to T2D and CKD account for approximately €1.3 billion and €805 million, respectively. The FIDELIO-DKD trial showed that the addition of finerenone to the standard of care (SoC) lowers the risk of CKD progression and cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with CKD stages 2-4 associated with T2D. This study investigates the cost-effectiveness of adding finerenone to the SoC of patients with advanced CKD and T2D compared to SoC monotherapy.

METHODS

The validated FINE-CKD model is a Markov cohort model which simulates the disease pathway of patients over a lifetime time horizon. The model was adapted to reflect the Dutch societal perspective. The model estimated the incremental costs, utilities, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to assess the effect of parameter uncertainty on model robustness.

RESULTS

When used in conjunction with SoC, finerenone extended time free of CV events and renal replacement therapy by respectively 0.30 and 0.31 life years compared to SoC alone, resulting in an extension of 0.20 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The reduction in renal and CV events led to a €6136 decrease in total lifetime costs per patient compared to SoC alone, establishing finerenone as a dominant treatment option. Finerenone in addition to SoC had a 83% probability of being dominant and a 93% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000.

CONCLUSION

By reducing the risk of CKD progression and CV events, finerenone saves costs to society while gaining QALYs in patients with T2D and advanced CKD in the Netherlands.

Incorporating Prior Beliefs Into Meta-Analyses of Health-State Utility Values Using the Bayesian Power Prior

OBJECTIVES

Health-state utility values (HSUVs) directly affect estimates of Quality-Adjusted Life-Years and thus the cost-utility estimates. In practice a single preferred value (SPV) is often selected for HSUVs, despite meta-analysis being an option when multiple (credible) HSUVs are available. Nevertheless, the SPV approach is often reasonable because meta-analysis implicitly considers all HSUVs as equally relevant. This article presents a method for the incorporation of weights to HSUV synthesis, allowing more relevant studies to have greater influence.

METHODS

Using 4 case studies in lung cancer, hemodialysis, compensated liver cirrhosis, and diabetic retinopathy blindness, a Bayesian Power Prior (BPP) approach is used to incorporate beliefs on study applicability, reflecting the authors' perceived suitability for UK decision making. Older studies, non-UK value sets, and vignette studies are thus downweighted (but not disregarded). BPP HSUV estimates were compared with a SPV, random effects meta-analysis, and fixed effects meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted iteratively updating the case studies, using alternative weighting methods, and simulated data.

RESULTS

Across all case studies, SPVs did not accord with meta-analyzed values, and fixed effects meta-analysis produced unrealistically narrow CIs. Point estimates from random effects meta-analysis and BPP models were similar in the final models, although BPP reflected additional uncertainty as wider credible intervals, particularly when fewer studies were available. Differences in point estimates were seen in iterative updating, weighting approaches, and simulated data.

CONCLUSIONS

The concept of the BPP can be adapted for synthesizing HSUVs, incorporating expert opinion on relevance. Because of the downweighting of studies, the BPP reflected structural uncertainty as wider credible intervals, with all forms of synthesis showing meaningful differences compared with SPVs. These differences would have implications for both cost-utility point estimates and probabilistic analyses.

Randomized Controlled Trials 4: Planning, Analysis, and Interpretation of Quality-of-Life Studies

Quality-of-life (QoL) outcomes are important elements of randomized controlled trials. The instruments for measurement of QoL vary but usually multiple comparisons are possible, a concern that can be offset by prespecifying the outcomes of interest. Missing data may threaten the validity of QoL assessments in trials. Therefore, familiarity with the strategies used to account for missing data is necessary. Measures that incorporate both survival and QoL are helpful for treatment decisions. The definition of minimal clinically important differences in QoL scores is important and often derived using inadequate methods.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alirocumab in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes: The ODYSSEY OUTCOMES Trial

BACKGROUND

Cholesterol reduction with proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors reduces ischemic events; however, the cost-effectiveness in statin-treated patients with recent acute coronary syndrome remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to determine whether further cholesterol reduction with alirocumab would be cost-effective in patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome on optimal statin therapy.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness model leveraging patient-level data from ODYSSEY OUTCOMES (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab) was developed to estimate costs and outcomes over a lifetime horizon. Patients (n = 18,924) had a recent acute coronary syndrome and were on high-intensity or maximum-tolerated statin therapy, with a baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level ≥70 mg/dl, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥100 mg/dl, or apolipoprotein B ≥80 mg/l. Alirocumab 75 mg or placebo was administered subcutaneously every 2 weeks. Alirocumab was blindly titrated to 150 mg if LDL-C remained ≥50 mg/dl or switched to placebo if 2 consecutive LDL-C levels were <15 mg/dl. Incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was determined with the addition of alirocumab versus placebo and, based on clinical efficacy findings from the trial, was stratified by baseline LDL-C levels ≥100 mg/dl and <100 mg/dl.

RESULTS

Across the overall population recruited to the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES trial, using an annual treatment cost of US$5,850, the mean overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$92,200 per QALY (base case). The cost was US$41,800 per QALY in patients with baseline LDL-C ≥100 mg/dl, whereas in those with LDL-C <100 mg/dl the cost per QALY was US$299,400. Among patients with LDL-C ≥100 mg/dl, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios remained below US$100,000 per QALY across a wide variety of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome on optimal statin therapy, alirocumab improves cardiovascular outcomes at costs considered intermediate value, with good value in patients with baseline LDL-C ≥100 mg/dl but less economic value with LDL-C <100 mg/dl. (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab [ODYSSEY OUTCOMES]; NCT01663402).

Health related quality of life utility weights for economic evaluation through different stages of chronic kidney disease: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

A Task Force from the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) provides recommendations on how to systematically identify and appraise health state utility (HSU) weights for cost-effectiveness analyses. We applied these recommendations to conduct a systematic review (SR) to identify HSU weights for different stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD), renal replacement therapy (RRT) and complications.

METHODS

MEDLINE® and Embase were searched for interventional and non-interventional studies reporting HSU weights for patients with CKD stages 1-5 or RRT. As per ISPOR Task Force Guidance, study quality criteria, applicability for Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and generalisability to a broad CKD population were used to grade studies as either 1 (recommended), 2 (to be considered if there are no data from grade 1 studies) or 3 (not recommended).

RESULTS

A total of 17 grade 1 studies were included in this SR with 51 to 1767 participants, conducted in the UK, USA, Canada, China, Spain, and multiple-countries. Health related quality of life (HRQL) instruments used in the studies included were EQ-5D-3L (10 studies), SF-6D (4 studies), HUI2/HUI3 (1 study), and combinations (2 studies). Although absolute values for HSU weights varied among instruments, HSU weights decreased with CKD severity in a consistent manner across all instruments.

CONCLUSIONS

This SR identified HSU weights for a range of CKD states and showed that HRQL decreases with CKD progression. Data were available to inform cost-effectiveness analysis in CKD in a number of geographies using instruments acceptable by HTA agencies.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cinacalcet for haemodialysis patients with moderate-to-severe secondary hyperparathyroidism in China: evaluation based on the EVOLVE trial

OBJECTIVE

As the cost-effectiveness evaluation of cinacalcet and conventional therapy in China has not been reported, the objective of this study was to make a pharmacoeconomic evaluation of cinacalcet specific to the Chinese healthcare setting in patients with moderate-to-severe secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) undergoing dialysis.

DESIGNS

Data from Evaluation of Cinacalcet Therapy to Lower Cardiovascular Events trial were used for this analysis. A semi-Markov model was constructed to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime costs in cinacalcet plus conventional therapy (cinacalcet strategy) compared with conventional therapy (standard strategy), in patients with moderate-to-severe SHPT undergoing dialysis. Treatment effect estimates from the unadjusted intent-to-treat (ITT) analysis and covariate-adjusted ITT analysis were used as the main analyses. Model sensitivity to variations in individual inputs and overall decision uncertainty were assessed through probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) as measured by cost per QALY gained.

RESULTS

The ICER for cinacalcet strategy was US$44 400 per QALY gained using the covariate-adjusted ITT analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested a 46.2% chance of the ICER being below a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$26 508. Treatment effects from unadjusted ITT analysis yielded an ICER of US$87 210 per QALY. The model was most sensitive to the treatment effect on mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing evidence does not support the cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet strategy in patients with moderate-to-severe SHPT undergoing dialysis when applying a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$26 508 per QALY, whether it is using the treatment effect from covariate-adjusted ITT analysis or unadjusted ITT analysis.

Effects of Bladder Cancer on UK Healthcare Costs and Patient Health-Related Quality of Life: Evidence From the BOXIT Trial

BACKGROUND

Limited evidence exists regarding the cost and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) effects of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) recurrence and progression to muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). We examined these effects using evidence from a recent randomized control trial.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The costs and HRQoL associated with bladder cancer were assessed using data from the BOXIT trial (bladder COX-2 inhibition trial; n = 472). The cost and HRQoL effects from clinical events were estimated using generalized estimating equations. The costs were derived from the recorded resource usage and UK unit costs. HRQoL was assessed using the EQ-5D-3L and reported UK preference tariffs. The events were categorized using the TMN classification.

RESULTS

Cases of grade 3 recurrence and progression were associated with statistically significant HRQoL decrements (-0.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.13 to -0.03; and -0.10; 95% CI, -0.17 to -0.03, respectively). The 3-year average cost per NMIBC patient was estimated at £8735 (95% CI, 8325-9145). Cases of grade 1, 2, and 3 recurrence were associated with annual cost effects of £1218 (95% CI, 403-2033), £1677 (95% CI, 920-2433), and £3957 (95% CI, 2332-5583), respectively. Progression to MIBC was associated with an average increase in costs of £5407 (95% CI, 2663-8152).

CONCLUSION

Evidence from the BOXIT trial suggests that patients with NMIBC will both experience decrements in HRQoL and incur significant costs, especially in the event of a grade 3 recurrence or a progression to MIBC.

Comparison of health state utility estimates from instrument-based and vignette-based methods: a case study in kidney disease

Objective

We take advantage of a rare occurrence when two different studies report on the estimation of quality of life utilities for the same health states to assess convergence of the reported measures. Health state utilities are important inputs into health economic models that estimate the impact of new medical technologies using a common metric of health gain—the quality adjusted life-year.

Results

We find low concordance between the two measures which is concerning in that this could have important ramifications for health care decision making based on estimated cost-effectiveness. We explore possible reasons for the discrepancy between the two measures and draw implications for the design of future studies.

Enhancing Health Through Access to Nature: How Effective are Interventions in Woodlands in Deprived Urban Communities? A Quasi-experimental Study in Scotland, UK

High prevalence of poor mental health is a major public health problem. Natural environments may contribute to mitigating stress and enhancing health. However, there is little evidence on whether community-level interventions intended to increase exposure to natural environments can improve mental health and related behaviours. In the first study of its kind, we evaluated whether the implementation of a programme designed to improve the quality of, and access to, local woodlands in deprived communities in Scotland, UK, was associated with lower perceived stress or other health-related outcomes, using a controlled, repeat cross-sectional design with a nested prospective cohort. Interventions included physical changes to the woodlands and community engagement activities within the woodlands, with data collected at baseline (2013) and post-intervention (2014 and 2015). The interventions were, unexpectedly, associated with increased perceived stress compared to control sites. However, we observed significantly greater increases in stress for those living >500 m from intervention sites. Visits to nearby nature (woods and other green space) increased overall, and moderate physical activity levels also increased. In the intervention communities, those who visited natural environments showed smaller increases in stress than those who did not; there was also some evidence of increased nature connectedness and social cohesion. The intervention costs were modest but there were no significant changes in quality of life on which to base cost-effectiveness. Findings suggest factors not captured in the study may have contributed to the perceived stress patterns found. Wider community engagement and longer post-intervention follow-up may be needed to achieve significant health benefits from woodland interventions such as those described here. The study points to the challenges in evidencing the effectiveness of green space and forestry interventions to enhance health in urban environments, but also to potential benefits from more integrated approaches across health and landscape planning and management practice.

Future Directions in Valuing Benefits for Estimating QALYs: Is Time Up for the EQ-5D?

The widespread adoption of the EuroQol 5-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D) has been important for the comparability, transparency, and consistency of economic evaluations for informing resource allocation in healthcare. The objectives of this article were to (1) critically assess whether the widespread adoption of the EQ-5D and its time trade-off-based value sets to inform economic evaluation is likely to continue and (2) speculate about how benefits may be measured and valued to inform economic evaluation in the future. Evidence supports the use of the EQ-5D in many areas of health, but there are notable gaps. Furthermore, there has been interest among some policy makers in measuring changes in well-being, and in using common outcomes across sectors. Possibilities for measuring well-being alongside health can be achieved through bolt-on dimensions or an entirely new measure capturing both health and well-being. Nevertheless, there are significant concerns about the logic of estimating a common utility function. The development of online valuation methods has had a major impact on the field, which is likely to continue. We, however, recommend more allowance for respondents to consider their answers. There is an ongoing debate on the role of patient values or experience-based values. To date, this has seen limited take-up by decision makers and there are significant technical problems to obtaining representative and meaningful values. Policy makers and the general population must decide on the focus and scope of benefits that are incorporated into economic evaluation, and current evidence on this is mixed. In part, this will determine whether the widespread adoption will continue.

Health impacts of environmental and social interventions designed to increase deprived communities’ access to urban woodlands: a mixed-methods study

Background

Contact with natural environments can bring health benefits, but research is lacking on how changes in access to natural environments might improve health, especially for deprived populations.

Objective

To evaluate the health impacts of woodland environment interventions intended to increase communities’ engagement with these woodlands.

Design

A prospective study of Forestry Commission Scotland’s Woods In and Around Towns (WIAT) programme in deprived communities to enhance public access to natural environments. The study investigated the impact that WIAT had on community-level mental health over time.

Setting

Three intervention and three control woodland sites, and associated communities within 1.5 km of the woodlands, located in central Scotland and eligible for WIAT support.

Participants

A core community survey was administered at each site in three waves, at baseline and after each phase of intervention (n = 5460, panel A). The completed survey contained a nested longitudinal cohort (n = 609, panel B). Community members also undertook 6-monthly environmental audits at all sites (n = 256) and participated in post-intervention focus groups (n = 34).

Interventions

Phase 1 involved physical changes to the woodlands, including footpaths, entrances and vegetation. Phase 2 involved community engagement events promoting woodland use.

Main outcome measures

The primary outcome was the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). Other health measures included health-related quality of life (HRQoL) EuroQol-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D), physical activity (PA) [International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ)], connectedness to nature [Inclusion of Nature in Self (INS) scale] and social cohesion.

Results

The PSS scores significantly increased in the intervention group and marginally decreased in the control group. Multilevel regression models showed a differential impact between the intervention and the control at survey wave 3 in panel A [B(unstandardised coefficient) 3.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.85 to 4.31;p < 0.001] and in panel B [B3.03, 95% CI 1.54 to 4.52;p < 0.001]. Using the same analytical approach, no significant change in HRQoL was associated with the intervention. Economic assessment included an illustrative cost–utility analysis and a cost–consequences analysis. The differential in stress between the intervention group and the control group was lower or non-significant in those who visited ‘nature’ in the previous year [panel A,B1.9, 95% CI 0.8 to 3.0;p < 0.001; panel B,B0.64, 95% CI –1.60 to 2.88;p = 0.57]. The IPAQ score showed a positive association with the intervention for moderate levels of PA [panel B,B559.3, 95% CI 211.3 to 907.2;p = 0.002] and overall PA [panel B,B861.5, 95% CI 106.5 to 1616.4;p = 0.025]. The intervention was also associated with increased nature connectedness and social cohesion by wave 3 – significant for panel A only. Qualitative and quantitative evidence showed that interventions increased the perceived quality of the woodland environment and enhanced its enjoyment for different activities, but the increase in use of natural environments post intervention was only 6% (panel B).

Limitations

This study was limited to three intervention sites. External factors may be the primary influence on health outcomes.

Conclusions

The WIAT interventions did not improve community-level health within 6 months of completion, and hence there was no basis for demonstrating cost-effectiveness. However, the WIAT interventions are low cost (average £11.80 per person in the eligible population) and have potential for cost-effectiveness, if health benefits were found in the longer term.

Future work

Using routinely collected data to consider a whole-programme evaluation is recommended.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme.

Etelcalcetide for Treating Secondary Hyperparathyroidism: An Evidence Review Group Evaluation of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

The manufacturer of the calcimimetic drug etelcalcetide was invited to make an evidence submission as part of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Single Technology Appraisal (STA) programme. Within this submission, they reported evidence on the clinical and cost effectiveness of etelcalcetide for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) on haemodialysis. The Southampton Health Technology Assessments Centre (SHTAC), part of the Wessex Institute at the University of Southampton, was the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG) commissioned to appraise the company's submission. This article describes the ERG's review and critique of the company's submission and summarises the NICE Appraisal Committee's subsequent guidance (issued in June 2017). The clinical-effectiveness evidence submitted by the company consisted of two double-blind, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing etelcalcetide with placebo, one RCT comparing etelcalcetide with cinacalcet, two single-arm extension studies of the above trials, and one single-arm study evaluating the effect of switching from cinacalcet to etelcalcetide. No study specifically examined the population specified in the NICE appraisal scope: patients refractory to standard therapy with phosphate binders and vitamin D (PBVD). None of these trials were designed to collect long-term efficacy data for outcomes such as mortality, bone fractures, cardiovascular events, or parathyroidectomies. Instead, biomarker data from the trials were mapped to long-term outcomes by an assumed linear relationship between the trial outcome, reduction of parathyroid hormone (PTH) by > 30%, and the log-hazard ratios for the occurrence of clinical events derived from a large, long-term RCT of cinacalcet (the EVOLVE trial). After submission of a confidential Patient Access Scheme (PAS) discount reducing etelcalcetide drug costs, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for etelcalcetide versus cinacalcet was £14,778 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained in the company's base case. While this value is lower than the NICE threshold range of £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY gained, it was the opinion of the ERG that the ICER was highly uncertain due to efficacy data limitations for etelcalcetide, inadequate synthesis of clinical-effectiveness evidence, and strong assumptions connecting short-term biomarker data with long-term clinical outcomes. The ERG produced an alternative base case for etelcalcetide versus cinacalcet, with an ICER of £22,400 per QALY gained, also subject to uncertainty. The NICE Appraisal Committee recommended etelcalcetide as an option for the treatment of SHPT in adults with CKD only if treatment with a calcimimetic is indicated and cinacalcet is not suitable, subject to the company's provision of the agreed PAS discount.

A Decision-Analytic Model to Assess the Cost-Effectiveness of Etelcalcetide vs. Cinacalcet

INTRODUCTION

Etelcalcetide is a novel intravenous calcimimetic for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in haemodialysis patients. The clinical efficacy and safety of etelcalcetide (in addition to phosphate binders and vitamin D and/or analogues [PB/VD]) was evaluated in three phase III studies, including two placebo-controlled trials and a head-to-head study versus the oral calcimimetic cinacalcet.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to develop a decision-analytic model for economic evaluation of etelcalcetide compared with cinacalcet.

METHODS

We developed a life-time Markov model including potential treatment effects on mortality, cardiovascular events, fractures, and subjects' persistence. Long-term efficacy of etelcalcetide was extrapolated from the reduction in parathyroid hormone (PTH) in the phase III trials and the available data from the outcomes study in cinacalcet (EVOLVE trial). Etelcalcetide was compared with cinacalcet, both in addition to PB/VD. We applied unit costs averaged from five European countries and a range of potential etelcalcetide pricing options assuming parity price to weekly use of cinacalcet and varying it by a 15 or 30% increase.

RESULTS

Compared with cinacalcet, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of etelcalcetide was €1,355 per QALY, €24,521 per QALY, and €47,687 per QALY for the three prices explored. The results were robust across the probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our modelling approach enabled cost-utility assessment of the novel therapy for SHPT based on the observed and extrapolated data. This model can be used for local adaptations in the context of reimbursement assessment.

Exploring the potential value of improved care for secondary hyperparathyroidism with a novel calcimimetic therapy

AIMS

This study explored the use of a value-based pricing approach for the new calcimimetic etelcalcetide indicated for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in patients receiving hemodialysis. It used the US payer perspective and applied the cost-effectiveness framework. Because etelcalcetide is an intravenous therapy that can be titrated for individual patients, and because its utilization is yet to be assessed in real world settings, a range of plausible doses were estimated for etelcalcetide to define a range of prices. These were either in relation to the existing oral calcimimetic cinacalcet or compared to no calcimimetic treatment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The value-based price of etelcalcetide was determined via a Markov model. This model combined data from the etelcalcetide trials and previously published cost-effectiveness models in SHPT, and allowed extrapolation of treatment effects on mortality, cardiovascular events, fracture, and parathyroidectomy. Several dosing scenarios were explored covering the dose ranges of 30.0-64.18 mg per day for cinacalcet and 1.07-3.11 mg per day for etelcalcetide. These included the mean dose from the etelcalcetide trials, the preliminary defined daily dose, and the expected most common dose in real world. An acceptable price range for etelcalcetide was assessed by comparing the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios obtained with the willingness-to-pay threshold range of $100,000-$300,000/quality-adjusted life-years.

RESULTS

Cost-effectiveness analysis supported value-based prices for etelcalcetide ranging from $21.15-$49.97/mg vs cinacalcet, and $13.79-$119.45/mg vs no calcimimetics.

LIMITATIONS

There is uncertainty around what the real-world dosing will be for etelcalcetide. Another important nuance is that no studies have examined etelcalcetide effects on hard outcomes and, therefore, this modeling exercise relied on an extrapolation approach.

CONCLUSIONS

This cost-effectiveness analysis, including scenarios to address uncertainties, allowed estimation of a value-based price range to aid reimbursement decisions in the US.

How to Appropriately Extrapolate Costs and Utilities in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Costs and utilities are key inputs into any cost-effectiveness analysis. Their estimates are typically derived from individual patient-level data collected as part of clinical studies the follow-up duration of which is often too short to allow a robust quantification of the likely costs and benefits a technology will yield over the patient's entire lifetime. In the absence of long-term data, some form of temporal extrapolation-to project short-term evidence over a longer time horizon-is required. Temporal extrapolation inevitably involves assumptions regarding the behaviour of the quantities of interest beyond the time horizon supported by the clinical evidence. Unfortunately, the implications for decisions made on the basis of evidence derived following this practice and the degree of uncertainty surrounding the validity of any assumptions made are often not fully appreciated. The issue is compounded by the absence of methodological guidance concerning the extrapolation of non-time-to-event outcomes such as costs and utilities. This paper considers current approaches to predict long-term costs and utilities, highlights some of the challenges with the existing methods, and provides recommendations for future applications. It finds that, typically, economic evaluation models employ a simplistic approach to temporal extrapolation of costs and utilities. For instance, their parameters (e.g. mean) are typically assumed to be homogeneous with respect to both time and patients' characteristics. Furthermore, costs and utilities have often been modelled to follow the dynamics of the associated time-to-event outcomes. However, cost and utility estimates may be more nuanced, and it is important to ensure extrapolation is carried out appropriately for these parameters.

Analyzing Health-Related Quality of Life Data to Estimate Parameters for Cost-Effectiveness Models: An Example Using Longitudinal EQ-5D Data from the SHIFT Randomized Controlled Trial

Introduction

The aim of this article is to discuss methods used to analyze health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for decision analytic models. The analysis presented in this paper was used to provide HRQoL data for the ivabradine health technology assessment (HTA) submission in chronic heart failure.

Methods

We have used a large, longitudinal EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) dataset from the Systolic Heart Failure Treatment with the I_f Inhibitor Ivabradine Trial (SHIFT) (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02441218) to illustrate issues and methods. HRQoL weights (utility values) were estimated from a mixed regression model developed using SHIFT EQ-5D data (n = 5313 patients). The regression model was used to predict HRQoL outcomes according to treatment, patient characteristics, and key clinical outcomes for patients with a heart rate ≥75 bpm.

Results

Ivabradine was associated with an HRQoL weight gain of 0.01. HRQoL weights differed according to New York Heart Association (NYHA) class (NYHA I–IV, no hospitalization: standard care 0.82–0.46; ivabradine 0.84–0.47). A reduction in HRQoL weight was associated with hospitalizations within 30 days of an HRQoL assessment visit, with this reduction varying by NYHA class [−0.07 (NYHA I) to −0.21 (NYHA IV)].

Conclusion

The mixed model explained variation in EQ-5D data according to key clinical outcomes and patient characteristics, providing essential information for long-term predictions of patient HRQoL in the cost-effectiveness model. This model was also used to estimate the loss in HRQoL associated with hospitalizations. In SHIFT many hospitalizations did not occur close to EQ-5D visits; hence, any temporary changes in HRQoL associated with such events would not be captured fully in observed RCT evidence, but could be predicted in our cost-effectiveness analysis using the mixed model. Given the large reduction in hospitalizations associated with ivabradine this was an important feature of the analysis.

Funding: The Servier Research Group.