Double trouble: a patient with two prosthetic valves and two episodes of intracranial bleeding

Management of anticoagulation following central nervous system hemorrhage in patients with high thromboembolic risk

SUMMARY BACKGROUND

Patients who present with central nervous system (CNS) hemorrhage while on anticoagulation (AC) for thromboembolic (TE) risk factors are a challenge to manage.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to inform decisions surrounding the timing and intensity of AC resumption by performing a systematic review.

METHODS

Three reviewers screened publications from Medline and EMBASE and extracted data. Hemorrhagic and TE adverse events that occurred subsequent to the index hemorrhage were recorded, as was their timing relative to presentation and covariates that might influence their occurrence.

RESULTS

Data were extracted from 63 publications detailing 492 patients; 7.7% of patients experienced hemorrhagic complications and 6.1% experienced TE complications. Hemorrhagic complications were more common within 72 h of presentation while TE complications were more common thereafter. Patients restarted on AC after 72 h were significantly more likely to have a TE complication (P = 0.006) and those restarted before 72 h were more likely to hemorrhage (P = 0.0727). Factors associated with re-hemorrhage included younger age, traumatic cause, subdural hematomas and failure to reverse AC. TE complications were more common in younger patients and those with spinal hemorrhage, multiple hemorrhages, and non-traumatic causes of the index hemorrhage. Re-initiation of AC at a lower intensity also significantly increased the risk of TE complications.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that it may be prudent to re-initiate AC earlier than previously thought, with the timing and intensity modified based on predictors of TE and hemorrhagic complications. These findings must be explored in a prospective study because of limitations inherent to the analyzed studies.

Prosthetic valve type for patients undergoing aortic valve replacement: a decision analysis

BACKGROUND

In two large, randomized, clinical trials long-term survival after aortic valve replacement (AVR) was similar for patients receiving tissue and mechanical aortic heart valve prostheses. Higher bleeding rates among patients with mechanical valves, who must receive permanent oral anticoagulation to prevent thromboembolism, were offset by higher reoperation rates for valve degeneration among patients with tissue valves. Because the average age of patients undergoing AVR and clinical practices have changed considerably since the randomized clinical trials were conducted, we performed a decision analysis to reassess the optimal valve type for patients undergoing AVR.

METHODS

We used a Markov state-transition model to simulate the occurrence of valve-related events and life expectancy for patients undergoing AVR. Probabilities of clinical events and mortality were derived from the randomized clinical trials and large follow-up studies.

RESULTS

Although the two valve types were associated with similar life expectancy in 60-year-old patients (mean age of patients in the randomized clinical trials), tissue valves were associated with greater life expectancy than mechanical valves (10.7 versus 11.1 years) in 70-year-old patients (currently mean age of AVR patients). For 70-year-old patients, the effects of major bleeding complications (24%) with mechanical valves substantially outweighed those of reoperation for valve failure (12%) with tissue valves at 12 years. Of the clinical practice changes assessed, the recommended valve type was most sensitive to changes in bleeding rates with anticoagulation. However, bleeding rates would have to be 68% lower than those reported in the European randomized clinical trial to affect the recommended valve type for 70-year-old patients. Reoperation rates would have to be five times higher, and mortality rates at reoperation would have to be four times higher to affect the recommended valve type for 70-year-old patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Although mechanical valves are preferred for AVR patients less than 60 years old, most patients currently undergoing AVR are elderly and would benefit more from tissue valves.

Stochastic trees: a new technique for temporal medical decision modeling

This paper introduces stochastic trees, a new modeling approach for the class of medical decision problems in which risks of mortality and morbidity may extend over time. A stochastic tree may be regarded as a continuous-time version of a Markov-cycle tree, or alternately, as a multi-state DEALE model. Optimal decisions in stochastic trees can be determined by rollback, much in the same fashion as decision trees. The author discusses how age-dependent mortality rates and declining incidence rates may be modeled using stochastic trees. Concepts are illustrated using examples from the medical literature. It is argued that stochastic trees possess important advantages over Markov-cycle trees for medical decision modeling.