Elevated PCT at ICU discharge predicts poor prognosis in patients with severe traumatic brain injury: a retrospective cohort study

Procalcitonin/Albumin Ratio Predicts the Outcome After Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

BACKGROUND

The procalcitonin/albumin ratio (PAR), a novel inflammation-based index, has been reported to predict the prognosis following cardiopulmonary bypass surgery and bacterial infection. However, whether PAR can predict the outcome of patients with severe traumatic brain injury (STBI) has not been fully elucidated. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between serum PAR levels and prognosis at 6 months after STBI.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 129 patients diagnosed with STBI and collected relevant clinical and laboratory data. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the association of PAR with the prognosis of STBI. The receiver operating characteristics curve was performed to examine the predictive use of PAR for prognosis. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was also performed to improve the reliability of the results. The primary outcome measures were expressed as a score on the modified Rankin Scale at 6 months.

RESULTS

The unfavorable prognosis group had advanced age, lower Glasgow Coma Scale score, higher rate of cerebral hernia and intracranial infection, higher neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), elevated PAR, and higher rate of pneumonia. Multivariate analysis showed that PAR (before PSM: odds ratio 3.473, 95% confidence interval 2.983-4.043, P < 0.001; after PSM: odds ratio 5.358, 95% confidence interval 3.689-6.491, P < 0.001) was independently associated with unfavorable outcome. The area under the curve of the PAR for predicting an unfavorable outcome was higher than that of the CAR and NLR.

CONCLUSIONS

The PAR might be a novel independent risk factor of the outcome after STBI. Moreover, PAR was a better biomarker in predicting the outcome of patients with STBI than CAR and NLR.

Prognostic Value of Serum Procalcitonin Based Model in Moderate to Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Patients

Objective

Procalcitonin (PCT) is an acknowledged marker of systemic inflammatory response. Previous studies have not reached agreement on the association between serum PCT and outcome of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients. We designed this study to confirm the prognostic value of PCT in isolated TBI and those with extracranial injury, respectively.

Methods

Patients hospitalized in our hospital for moderate-to-severe TBI between March 2015 and December 2019 were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to validate the association between PCT and in-hospital mortality in these patients. AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve) of PCT and constructed model were calculated and compared.

Results

Among the included 211 patients, 81 patients suffered a poor outcome, with a mortality rate of 38.4%. Non-survivors had a higher level of serum PCT (2.73 vs 0.72, p<0.001) and lower GCS (5 vs 7, p<0.001) on admission than survivors. AUC of single PCT for predicting mortality in isolated TBI and those with extracranial injury were 0.767 and 0.553, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression showed that GCS (OR=0.744, p=0.008), glucose (OR=1.236, p<0.001), cholesterol (OR=0.526, p=0.002), and PCT (OR=1.107, p=0.022) were independently associated with mortality of isolated TBI. The AUC of the prognostic model composed of GCS, glucose, cholesterol, and PCT was 0.868 in isolated TBI.

Conclusion

PCT is an efficient marker of outcome in isolated moderate-to-severe TBI but not those with extracranial injury. A prognostic model incorporating PCT is useful for clinicians to make early risk stratification for isolated TBI.