Factors influencing early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

Which factors predict tumor recurrence and survival after curative hepatectomy in hepatocellular carcinoma? Results from a European institution

BACKGROUND

High tumor recurrence and dismal survival rates after curative intended resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are still concerning. The primary goal was to assess predictive factors associated with disease-free (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in a subset of patients with HCC undergoing hepatic resection (HR).

METHODS

Between 08/2004-7/2021, HR for HCC was performed in 188 patients at our institution. Data allocation was conducted from a prospectively maintained database. The prognostic impact of clinico-pathological factors on DFS and OS was assessed by using uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Survival curves were generated with the Kaplan Meier method.

RESULTS

The postoperative 1-, 3- and 5- year overall DFS and OS rates were 77.9%, 49.7%, 41% and 72.7%, 54.7%, 38.8%, respectively. Tumor diameter ≥ 45 mm [HR 1.725; (95% CI 1.091-2.727); p = 0.020], intra-abdominal abscess [HR 3.812; (95% CI 1.859-7.815); p < 0.0001], and preoperative chronic alcohol abuse [HR 1.831; (95% CI 1.102-3.042); p = 0.020] were independently predictive for DFS while diabetes mellitus [HR 1.714; (95% CI 1.147-2.561); p = 0.009), M-Stage [HR 2.656; (95% CI 1.034-6.826); p = 0.042], V-Stage [HR 1.946; (95% CI 1.299-2.915); p = 0.001, Sepsis [HR 10.999; (95% CI 5.167-23.412); p < 0.0001], and ISGLS B/C [HR 2.008; (95% CI 1.273-3.168); p = 0.003] were significant determinants of OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high postoperative recurrence rates, an acceptable long-term survival in patients after curative HR could be achieved. The Identification of parameters related to OS and DFS improves patient-centered treatment and surveillance strategies.

Adjuvant and neoadjuvant immunotherapies in hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver cancer, specifically hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is the sixth most common cancer and the third leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. The development of effective systemic therapies, particularly those involving immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), has substantially improved the outcomes of patients with advanced-stage HCC. Approximately 30% of patients are diagnosed with early stage disease and currently receive potentially curative therapies, such as resection, liver transplantation or local ablation, which result in median overall survival durations beyond 60 months. Nonetheless, up to 70% of these patients will have disease recurrence within 5 years of resection or local ablation. To date, the results of randomized clinical trials testing adjuvant therapy in patients with HCC have been negative. This major unmet need has been addressed with the IMbrave 050 trial, demonstrating a recurrence-free survival benefit in patients with a high risk of relapse after resection or local ablation who received adjuvant atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. In parallel, studies testing neoadjuvant ICIs alone or in combination in patients with early stage disease have also reported efficacy. In this Review, we provide a comprehensive overview of the current approaches to manage patients with early stage HCC. We also describe the tumour immune microenvironment and the mechanisms of action of ICIs and cancer vaccines in this setting. Finally, we summarize the available evidence from phase II/III trials of neoadjuvant and adjuvant approaches and discuss emerging clinical trials, identification of biomarkers and clinical trial design considerations for future studies.

From prediction to prevention: Machine learning revolutionizes hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence monitoring

In this editorial, we comment on the article by Zhang et al entitled Development of a machine learning-based model for predicting the risk of early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which is characterized by high incidence and mortality rates, remains a major global health challenge primarily due to the critical issue of postoperative recurrence. Early recurrence, defined as recurrence that occurs within 2 years posttreatment, is linked to the hidden spread of the primary tumor and significantly impacts patient survival. Traditional predictive factors, including both patient- and treatment-related factors, have limited predictive ability with respect to HCC recurrence. The integration of machine learning algorithms is fueled by the exponential growth of computational power and has revolutionized HCC research. The study by Zhang et al demonstrated the use of a groundbreaking preoperative prediction model for early postoperative HCC recurrence. Chall-enges persist, including sample size constraints, issues with handling data, and the need for further validation and interpretability. This study emphasizes the need for collaborative efforts, multicenter studies and comparative analyses to validate and refine the model. Overcoming these challenges and exploring innovative approaches, such as multi-omics integration, will enhance personalized oncology care. This study marks a significant stride toward precise, effi-cient, and personalized oncology practices, thus offering hope for improved patient outcomes in the field of HCC treatment.

Revolutionising hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: Harnessing contrast-enhanced ultrasound and serological indicators for postoperative early recurrence prediction

This study aimed to develop a noninvasive predictive model for identifying early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (within 2 years after surgery) based on contrast-enhanced ultrasound and serum biomarkers. Additionally, the model's validity was assessedthrough internal and external validation. Clinical data were collected from patients who underwent liver resection at the First Hospital of Quanzhou and Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital. The data included general information, contrast-enhanced ultrasound parameters, Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) classification, and serum biomarkers. The data from Mengchao Hospital were divided into 2 groups, with a ratio of 6:4, to form the modeling and internal validation sets, respectively. On the other hand, the data from the First Hospital of Quanzhou served as the external validation group. The developed model was named the Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Recurrence (HCC-ER) prediction model. The predictive efficiency of the HCC-ER model was compared with other established models. The baseline characteristics were found to be well-balanced across the modeling, internal validation, and external validation groups. Among the independent risk factors identified for early recurrence, LI-RADS classification, alpha-fetoprotein, and tumor maximum diameter exhibited hazard ratios of 1.352, 1.337, and 1.135 respectively. Regarding predictive accuracy, the HCC-ER, Tumour-Node-Metastasis, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, and China Liver Cancer models demonstrated prediction errors of 0.196, 0.204, 0.201, and 0.200 in the modeling group; 0.215, 0.215, 0.218, and 0.212 in the internal validation group; 0.210, 0.215, 0.216, and 0.221 in the external validation group. Using the HCC-ER model, risk scores were calculated for all patients, and a cutoff value of 50 was selected. This cutoff effectively distinguished the high-risk recurrence group from the low-risk recurrence group in the modeling, internal validation, and external validation groups. However, the calibration curve of the predictive model slightly overestimated the risk of recurrence. The HCC-ER model developed in this study demonstrated high accuracy in predicting early recurrence within 2 years after hepatectomy. It provides valuable information for developing precise treatment strategies in clinical practice and holds considerable promise for further clinical implementation.

A model incorporating histopathology and preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma without microvascular invasion after curative hepatectomy

OBJECTIVES

To assess the predictive value of preoperative gadoxetic acid (GA)-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features and postoperative histopathological grading for early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) without microvascular invasion (MVI) after curative hepatectomy.

METHODS

A total of 85 MVI-negative HCC cases were retrospectively analyzed. Cox analyses were used to identify the independent predictors of early recurrence (within a 24 months span). The clinical prediction Model-1 or Model-2 was established without or with postoperative pathological factor, respectively. Nomogram models were constructed and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the models' predictive ability. Internal validation of the prediction models for early HCC recurrence was performed using a bootstrap re-sampling approach.

RESULTS

In the multivariate cox regression analysis, Edmondson-Steiner grade, peritumoral hypointensity on hepatobiliary phase (HBP), and relative intensity ratio (RIR) in HBP were identified as independent variables associated with early recurrence. The C-index of the nomogram models and internal validation were both between 0.7 and 0.8, showing good model fitting and calibration effects. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.781 for Model-1 based on the two preoperative MRI factors. When a third factor, the Edmondson-Steiner grade, was included (Model-2), the AUC increased to 0.834, and the sensitivity increased from 71.4 to 96.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

Edmondson-Steiner grade, peritumoral hypointensity on HBP, and RIR on HBP can help predict early recurrence of MVI-negative HCC. In comparison with Model-1 (only imaging features), Model-2 (imaging features + histopathological grades) increases the sensitivity in predicting early recurrence of HCC without MVI.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

Preoperative GA-enhanced MRI signs are of great value in predicting early postoperative recurrence of HCC without MVI, and a combined pathological model was established to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of this technique.

Predictors of early and late hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most frequent liver neoplasm, and its incidence rates are constantly increasing. Despite the availability of potentially curative treatments (liver transplantation, surgical resection, thermal ablation), long-term outcomes are affected by a high recurrence rate (up to 70% of cases 5 years after treatment). HCC recurrence within 2 years of treatment is defined as “early” and is generally caused by the occult intrahepatic spread of the primary neoplasm and related to the tumor burden. A recurrence that occurs after 2 years of treatment is defined as “late” and is related to de novo HCC, independent of the primary neoplasm. Early HCC recurrence has a significantly poorer prognosis and outcome than late recurrence. Different pathogenesis corresponds to different predictors of the risk of early or late recurrence. An adequate knowledge of predictive factors and recurrence risk stratification guides the therapeutic strategy and post-treatment surveillance. Patients at high risk of HCC recurrence should be referred to treatments with the lowest recurrence rate and when standardized to combined or adjuvant therapy regimens. This review aimed to expose the recurrence predictors and examine the differences between predictors of early and late recurrence.

Predictors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Recurrence in Patients Treated with Surgical Resection or Ablation Treatment: A Single-Center Experience

Introduction: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth most diagnosed malignancy and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, with poor overall survival despite available curative treatments. One of the most crucial factors influencing survival in HCC is recurrence. The current study aims to determine factors associated with early recurrence of HCC in patients with BCLC Stage 0 or Stage A treated with surgical resection or local ablation. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 58 consecutive patients diagnosed with HCC within BCLC Stage 0 or Stage A and treated either by surgical resection or local ablation with maximum nodule diameter < 50 mm. In the first year of follow-up after treatment, imaging was performed regularly one month after treatment and then every three months. Each case was discussed collectively by the Liver Multidisciplinary Group to decide diagnosis, treatment, follow-up, and disease recurrence. Variables resulting in statistically significant difference were then studied by Cox regression analysis; univariately and then multivariately based on forward stepwise Cox regression. Results are represented in hazard ratio (H.R.) with 95% confidence interval (C.I.). Results: There was no statistically significant difference in recurrence rates (34.8 vs. 45.7%, log-rank test, p = 0.274) between patients undergoing surgical resection and local ablation, respectively. Early recurrence was associated with male gender (HR 2.5, 95% C.I. 1.9−3.1), nodule diameter > 20 mm (HR 4.5, 95% C.I. 3.9−5.1), platelet count < 125 × 103 cell/mm3 (HR 1.6, 95% C.I. 1.2−1.9), platelet-lymphocyte ratio < 95 (HR 2.1, 95% C.I. 1.7−2.6), lymphocyte-monocyte ratio < 2.5 (HR 1.9, 95% C.I. 1.4−2.5), and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio > 2 (HR 2.7, 95% C.I. 2.2−3.3). Discussion and Conclusions: Our results are in line with the current literature. Male gender and tumor nodule dimension are the main risk factors associated with early HCC recurrence. Platelet count and other combined scores can be used as predictive tools for early HCC recurrence, although more studies are needed to define cut-offs.

The ratio of serum des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin to tumor volume as a new biomarker for early recurrence of resected hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Early recurrence (ER) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (within 1 year after resection) is known to be a poor prognostic factor. The aim was to identify the risk factors associated with ER after HCC resection.

METHODS

Data were analyzed retrospectively from patients who underwent primary resection for HCC from two hospitals. For cross-validation, HCC resection cases were divided into the training and testing cohort. The clinicopathological factors between the ER and non-ER groups and factors for predicting ER and prognosis after HCC resection were compared.

RESULTS

Out of 173 patients in the training dataset, 33 patients had ER and the ER group showed larger tumor size, more intrahepatic metastasis (IM), and a higher ratio of serum des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) to tumor volume (TV) (DCP/TV) than the non-ER group. Out of 203 patients in the testing dataset, 30 patients had ER and the ER group demonstrated larger tumor size, more IM, and higher serum alpha-fetoprotein, AFP/TV, DCP/TV, AFP/tumor maximum diameter (TMD), and DCP/TMD than the non-ER group. The patients were divided into high and low DCP/TV groups and high serum DCP/TV was associated with unfavorable overall survival in the training and testing dataset. Multivariate analysis confirmed that high serum DCP/TV and IM were independently associated with ER.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative high serum DCP/TV may be useful for stratifying patients at risk of early HCC recurrence after curative resection.

Effect of Radiofrequency Ablation with Interventional Therapy of Hepatic Artery on the Recurrence of Primary Liver Cancer and the Analysis of Influencing Factors

Background

The probability of liver cancer recurring in patients after surgery is a serious threat to liver cancer patients. Radiofrequency ablation is widely employed in liver cancer cases. We explored the therapeutic effects and influencing factors of radiofrequency ablation combined with hepatic artery intervention in patients with recurrence of primary liver cancer surgery.

Methods

90 patients with primary liver cancer postoperative recurrence admitted to our hospital from January 2014 to February 2017 were selected as the research objects. The patients were randomly divided into the control group (n = 45) and combined treatment group (n = 45). The combined treatment group received radiofrequency ablation combined with hepatic artery interventional therapy, and the control group received hepatic artery interventional therapy. The short-term efficacy, AFP levels before and after treatment, and long-term survival results of the two groups were compared. Single-factor and multifactor analyses of the clinical information of the combined treatment group were carried out to find out the factors affecting the therapeutic effect of radiofrequency ablation combined with hepatic artery intervention on patients with recurrence of primary liver cancer.

Results

The total effective rate of short-term curative effect of the combined treatment group was higher than the control group, and there was a statistically significant difference existing (P < 0.05). After treatment, two groups of patients' AFP levels were greatly lower than before treatment, the AFP levels of the combined treatment group were significantly lower than the control group, and there was a statistically significant difference (P < 0.05). The survival rates of patients in the combined treatment group at the sixth month, the first year, and the second year after treatment were significantly higher than those of the control group, and there was a statistically significant difference (P < 0.05). The univariate results showed that, in the combined treatment group, there were statistically significant differences between the effective group and the ineffective group in tumor diameter, intact capsule, liver cirrhosis, intrahepatic spread, and tumor adjacent to large blood vessels (P < 0.05). The outcomes of multivariate analysis indicated that tumor diameter ≥ 3 cm, incomplete capsule, intrahepatic spread, and tumor adjacent to large blood vessels were risk factors for ineffective recurrence of patients with primary liver cancer after radiofrequency ablation combined with hepatic artery intervention (P < 0.05). Discussion. Tumor diameter ≥ 3 cm, incomplete capsule, intrahepatic spread, and tumor adjacent to large blood vessels are risk factors for the ineffectiveness of radiofrequency ablation combined with hepatic artery interventional therapy for patients with recurrence of primary liver cancer. It is necessary to increase the range of radiofrequency treatment, increase the temperature of the radiofrequency needle, and strengthen postoperative follow-up interventions based on the specific conditions of the patient's tumor.