Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival in patients with hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma treated with primary surgery

Prognostic Assessment and Risk Stratification in Patients With Postoperative Major Salivary Acinar Cell Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the clinicopathological features and prognosis of postoperative major salivary acinar cell carcinoma (MSACC) and develop a prognostic model.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort analysis of a public database.

SETTING

Patients with MSACC were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1975-2019).

METHODS

Overall survival (OS) was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and a log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to explore independent prognostic factors. The prognostic model was constructed using screened variables and further visualized with a nomogram and web calculator, and assessed by concordance index, the area under the curve, calibration curve, and decision-making curve analysis.

RESULTS

An upward trend in the incidence of MSACC was observed throughout the study period. A total of 1398 patients were enrolled (training cohort: 978; validation cohort: 420), and the 5- and 10-year OS rates were 97.7% and 81.6%, respectively. Age, marital status, sex, histological grade, T stage, and lymph node status were identified as prognostic factors for OS. A novel nomogram was developed and showed excellent discrimination and clinical applicability. Additionally, a web calculator was designed to dynamically predict patient survival. Based on the nomogram-based score, a risk stratification system was constructed to distinguish patients with different risks. The OS of high-risk patients was significantly lower than that of the low-risk subgroup.

CONCLUSION

Long-term survival in postoperative MSACC was influenced by 6 prognostic factors. The proposed model enables individualized survival prediction and risk stratification, prompting us to be vigilant in high-risk subgroups and consider timely adjustment of subsequent treatment.

Updated racial disparities in incidence, clinicopathological features and prognosis of hypopharyngeal squamous carcinoma in the United States

OBJECTIVE

This study was to determine the racial disparities in incidence, clinicopathological features and prognosis of hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC) in the US.

METHODS

The National Program of Cancer Registries and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to determine racial disparity in age adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) of HPSCC and its temporal trend during 2004-2019. Using the separate SEER 17 database, we further evaluated racial disparity in clinicopathological features, and in prognosis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

HPSCC accounted for 95.8% of all hypopharyngeal cancers and occurred much more frequently in males. Its incidence decreased in both male and females, in male non-Hispanic white (NHW), non-Hispanic black (NHB) and Hispanic as well as female NHW and NHB during the study period. NHB had the highest, whereas non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islanders (API) had comparable and the lowest incidence in both males and females. Among 6,172 HPSCC patients obtained from SEER 17 database, 80.6% were males and 83.9% were at the advanced stages III/IV. Five-year cancer specific and overall survival rates were 41.2% and 28.9%, respectively. NHB patients were more likely to be younger, unmarried, from the Southern region, larger sized tumor, and at the stage IV, but less likely to receive surgery. They also had higher proportions of dying from HPSCC and all causes. Multivariate analyses revealed that NHB with HPSCC at the locally advanced stage had both significantly worse cancer specific and overall survival compared with NHW, but not at early stage (I/II) or distant metastatic stage. Hispanic patients had significantly better prognosis than NHW at locally advanced and metastatic stages. NHW and API had comparable prognoses.

CONCLUSIONS

HPSCC displays continuously decreased incidence and racial disparity. The majority of the disease is diagnosed at the advanced stage. NHB have the highest burden of HPSCC and a worse prognosis. More studies are needed to curtail racial disparity and improve early detection.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for adult patients with renal sarcoma: A retrospective study based on the SEER database

Background

Renal sarcoma (RS) is rarely seen in clinical practice. The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic nomogram model, which could predict the probability of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in adult patients with RS.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with RS were recruited from the SEER database between 2004 and 2015, and randomized to two cohorts: the training cohort and the validation cohort. Uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses in the training cohort were used to screen independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Prognostic nomograms for OS and CSS were created separately for adult RS patients based on independent risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to validate the nomograms.

Results

A total of 232 eligible patients were recruited, including 162 in the training cohort and 70 in the validation cohort. Sex, histological type, SEER stage, and surgery were independent prognostic factors for OS, while histological type, SEER stage, surgery, chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for CSS. Based on the above independent prognostic factors, prognostic nomograms for OS and CSS were created respectively. In the training cohort, the AUCs of the nomograms for OS and CSS were 0.742 and 0.733, respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUCs of the nomograms for OS and CSS were 0.837 and 0.758, respectively. The calibration curves of the nomograms showed high consistencies between the predicted and actual survival rates. Finally, the DCA demonstrated that the nomograms in the wide high-risk threshold had a higher net benefit than the SEER stage.

Conclusion

A prognostic nomogram for renal sarcoma was created and validated for reliability and usefulness in our study, which assisted urologists in accurately assessing the prognosis of adult RS patients.

A Study of Peripheral Blood Parameters to Predict Response to Induction Chemotherapy and Overall Survival in Advanced Laryngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Purpose: the purpose of this study was to screen peripheral blood parameters and construct models predicting the prognosis and induction chemotherapy (IC) response in locally advanced laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) patients. Methods: A total of 128 stage III/IVa LSCC patients (who required a total laryngectomy) were enrolled in a retrospective study from January 2013 to September 2020 at Beijing Tongren Hospital of Capital Medical University. Among them, 62 patients received IC (IC group), and 66 patients immediately underwent a total laryngectomy (TL) after diagnosis (surgery group). Demographic information and peripheral blood parameters were collected for further analysis. The overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and disease-specific survival (DSS) were compared between the two groups. The prognosis and survival were also compared between patients with laryngeal function preservation (LFP) and those with TL. Results: The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for IC response in the IC group showed that the AUC of the blood model based on the four peripheral blood parameters of fibrinogen (FIB), platelet (PLT), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and albumin (ALB) was significantly higher than the TNM stage model’s AUC (0.7932 vs. 0.6568). We constructed a nomogram blood model to predict IC response (C-Index = 0.793). Regarding the OS of all patients, an ROC analysis for overall survival, the Kaplan–Meier (K-M) method with a log-rank test, and multivariate analysis indicated age, clinical stage, FIB, and hemoglobin (HGB) were independent prognostic factors for the OS of LSCC patients. The blood–clinical logistic model (AUC = 0.7979) was constructed based on the four prognosis factors, which were superior to the blood (AUC = 0.6867) or clinical models (AUC = 0.7145) alone to predict OS. We constructed a nomogram model based on age, clinical stage, FIB, and HGB to predict OS for LSCC patients (C-Index = 0.792). Besides this, there were no significant differences in OS, PFS, and DSS between IC and surgery groups or LFP and TL groups. Conclusion: Peripheral blood parameters help predict IC response and overall survival. Furthermore, induction chemotherapy significantly improves laryngeal function preservation without lowering the survival prognosis.