Refinement of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores predict left atrial thrombus or spontaneous echo contrast in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients

Finding low CHA2DS2-VASc scores unreliable? Why not give morphological and hemodynamic methods a try?

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) suffer from a high risk of thrombosis. Currently, the CHA2DS2-VASc score is the most widely used tool for risk stratification in patients with AF, but it has disappointing accuracy and limited predictive value, especially in those with low scores. Thrombi in patients with AF mostly grow in their left atrial appendages (LAA), which is directly related to the abnormal morphology of the LAA or the left atrium and the unusual hemodynamic state around LAA, which may sensitively evaluate the risk of thrombosis complications in patients with AF and bring bases to clinical plans of medication and operation. Therefore, we investigated the research progress of hemodynamic and morphological studies about the predictive value of thrombosis risk in patients with AF, intending to discuss the prediction potential of morphological and hemodynamic indexes when compared with the presently used CHA2DS2-VASc system and how to build a more precise thromboembolic event prediction model for patients with AF.

External validation and comparison of CHA2DS2-VASc-RAF and CHA2DS2-VASc-LAF scores for predicting left atrial thrombus and spontaneous echo contrast in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation

PURPOSE

CHA₂DS₂-VASc-RAF (R is renal dysfunction, and AF is atrial fibrillation type) and CHA₂DS₂-VASc-LAF (L is left atrial diameter, and AF is atrial fibrillation type) scores have been developed to estimate the risk of left atrial thrombus (LAT) and spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). However, few external validations have been conducted to assess their accuracy. Thus, this study aimed to validate and compare the two modified scores for predicting LAT/SEC in patients with NVAF.

METHODS

This study included 399 patients with NVAF who underwent transesophageal echocardiography. Risk factors related to LAT/SEC were identified through logistic regression analysis, and predictive value and diagnostic efficiency were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

Approximately 9.8% (39/399) of the patients with NVAF had LAT/SEC. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that history of stroke/transient ischemic attack, congestive heart failure, non-paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, lack of anticoagulation therapy, enlarged left atrial diameter, enlarged left ventricular end diastolic diameter, decreased left ventricular ejection fraction, decreased left atrial appendage emptying velocity, and decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate were independent risk factors for LAT/SEC. The CHA₂DS₂-VASc-LAF (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.839) and CHA₂DS₂-VASc-RAF (AUC = 0.829) scores showed larger predictive values than the CHA₂DS₂-VASc (AUC = 0.737) and CHADS₂ (AUC = 0.736) scores. The AUC of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc-RAF score was similar to that of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc-LAF score (Z = 0.432; P = 0.666).

CONCLUSION

This study validated that the CHA₂DS₂-VASc-RAF and CHA₂DS₂-VASc-LAF scores are useful prognostic scoring systems for predicting LAT/SEC in patients with NVAF.