1
|
Paratz ED, Nehme E, Heriot N, Bissland K, Rowe S, Fahy L, Anderson D, Stub D, La Gerche A, Nehme Z. A two-point strategy to clarify prognosis in >80 year olds experiencing out of hospital cardiac arrest. Resuscitation 2023; 191:109962. [PMID: 37683995 DOI: 10.1016/j.resuscitation.2023.109962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2023] [Revised: 08/29/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 09/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The global population is aging, with the number of ≥80-year-olds projected to triple over the next 30 years. Rates of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) are also increasing within this age group. METHODS The Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Registry was utilised to identify OHCAs in patients aged ≥80 years between 2002-2021. Predictors of survival to discharge were defined and a prognostic score derived from this cohort. RESULTS 77,628 patients experienced OHCA of whom 25,269 (32.6%) were ≥80 years (80-90 years = 18,956; 90-100 years = 6,148; >100 years = 209). The number of patients ≥80 years increased over time both absolutely (p = 0.002) and proportionally (p = 0.028). 619 (2.4%) patients survived to discharge without change over time. Older ages had no difference in witnessed OHCA status but were less likely to have shockable rhythm (OR 0.50 (95% CI 0.44-0.57) for 90-100-year-olds, OR 0.28 (95% CI 0.12-0.63) for 90-100-year-olds). If OHCA was witnessed and there was a shockable rhythm then survival was 14%; if one factor was present survival was 5-6% and if neither factor was present, survival was 0.09%. These survival rates enabled derivation of a simplified prognostic assessment score - the '15/5/0' score - highly comparable to a previously-published American cohort. CONCLUSIONS Elderly OHCA rates have increased to one-third of caseload. The most important factors predicting survival were whether the OHCA was witnessed and there was a shockable rhythm. We present a simple two-point '15/5/0' prognostic score defining which patients will gain most from advanced resuscitative measures.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth D Paratz
- Department of Sports Cardiology, Baker Heart & Diabetes Institute, 75 Commercial Rd, Prahran, VIC 3181, Australia; Department of Cardiology, St Vincent's Hospital Melbourne, 41 Victoria Parade, Fitzroy, VIC 3065, Australia; Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3000, Australia; Ambulance Victoria, Centre for Research and Evaluation, 31 Joseph St, Blackburn, North VIC 3130, Australia. https://twitter.com/@pretzeldr
| | - Emily Nehme
- Ambulance Victoria, Centre for Research and Evaluation, 31 Joseph St, Blackburn, North VIC 3130, Australia; School of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Natalie Heriot
- Ambulance Victoria, Centre for Research and Evaluation, 31 Joseph St, Blackburn, North VIC 3130, Australia
| | - Kenneth Bissland
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, St Vincent's Hospital Melbourne, 41 Victoria Parade, Fitzroy, VIC 3065, Australia
| | - Stephanie Rowe
- Department of Sports Cardiology, Baker Heart & Diabetes Institute, 75 Commercial Rd, Prahran, VIC 3181, Australia; Department of Cardiology, St Vincent's Hospital Melbourne, 41 Victoria Parade, Fitzroy, VIC 3065, Australia; Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3000, Australia
| | - Louise Fahy
- Department of Sports Cardiology, Baker Heart & Diabetes Institute, 75 Commercial Rd, Prahran, VIC 3181, Australia; Department of Cardiology, St Vincent's Hospital Melbourne, 41 Victoria Parade, Fitzroy, VIC 3065, Australia
| | - David Anderson
- Ambulance Victoria, Centre for Research and Evaluation, 31 Joseph St, Blackburn, North VIC 3130, Australia; School of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia; Department of Cardiology, Alfred Health, 55 Commercial Rd, Prahran, VIC 3181, Australia
| | - Dion Stub
- Ambulance Victoria, Centre for Research and Evaluation, 31 Joseph St, Blackburn, North VIC 3130, Australia; School of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia; Department of Cardiology, Alfred Health, 55 Commercial Rd, Prahran, VIC 3181, Australia
| | - Andre La Gerche
- Department of Sports Cardiology, Baker Heart & Diabetes Institute, 75 Commercial Rd, Prahran, VIC 3181, Australia; Department of Cardiology, St Vincent's Hospital Melbourne, 41 Victoria Parade, Fitzroy, VIC 3065, Australia; Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3000, Australia
| | - Ziad Nehme
- Ambulance Victoria, Centre for Research and Evaluation, 31 Joseph St, Blackburn, North VIC 3130, Australia; School of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia; Department of Paramedicine, Monash University, McMahons Road, Frankston, VIC 3199, Australia
| |
Collapse
|