Radiological risk evaluation applied to aerial evacuation procedures in a nuclear scenario

This study evaluates the risk assessment of a hypothetical scenario where an off-site radioactive release occurs at a nuclear power plant. By using the code Accident Reporting and Guiding Operational System (Prolog Development Center - PDC/ARGOS) a numerical simulation was performed to simulate exposure conditions in an atmospheric plume of contamination. Crews on a rescue mission traverse the plume through a pre-defined path to evaluate the risk from a hypothetical radiological exposure. Applying a sophisticated epidemiological assessment methodology, radiation doses and risks on the teams were evaluated. Core variables such as gender, age and radiation dose were considered in relation to specific morbidities. It was possible to propose a methodology capable of contributing to the reduction of risks to the personnel involved by connecting the results from the computer simulation and the epidemiological risk assessment.

Urban critical infrastructure disruption after a radiological dispersive device event

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of the activation of a hypothetical radiological dispersal device (RDD) on the urban critical infrastructure (health facilities and public transport). A densely populated urban region was chosen as a scenery. Additionally, the influence of local environmental factors in the post-detonation process was verified. The source term was Cs-137 due to its mobility in the environment and relative ease of access. The approach used for the evaluation of the consequences was a computer simulation by Gaussian modeling. The HotSpot Health Physics Codes software was applied in conjunction with the RESRAD-RDD software. The results suggest that there is a strong influence of the local atmospheric stability classes (Pasquill-Gifford classes) on both the total equivalent effective dose (TEDE) and soil contamination. Consequently, the impacts on critical urban infrastructure follow the same trend. The method used for comparing the simulated and reference limits was the proportional ratio. All calculated values for radioactive contamination were divided by the reference value adopted by the RESRAD-RDD model for urban critical infrastructure. The results indicate that the information compiled is useful to support the decision-making process, although it is not sufficient to provide care and support for longer periods than those considered in the initial response phase.

Solid cancer risk dependence on the Pasquill-Gifford atmospheric stability classes in a radiological event

In a radiological event, the lack of preliminary information about the site of explosion and the difficulty in predicting the accurate path and distribution of radioactive plumes makes it difficult to predict expected health effects of exposed individuals. So far, in such a health evaluation, radiation-induced stochastic health effects such as cancer are not included. The Pasquill-Gifford atmospheric classes generally allow connecting atmospheric stability with dispersion of radioactive contaminants to the environment. In this work, an environmental release of radioactive Cs-137 was simulated and the resulting relative risk for solid cancer incidence among the affected population calculated. The HotSpot health physics code was used to simulate the radioactive atmospheric dispersion and calculate the Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE), which was then used to estimate the relative risk of cancer incidence. The main results from this work suggest that the relative cancer risk and atmospheric stability classes are linked by differences in the TEDE. Such a finding may support triage, because it adds additional information on the potentially affected population at the early stages of an emergency response.

The vertical radiation dose profile and decision-making in a simulated urban event

A radiological dispersal device (RDD) is built using an explosive device laced with radioactive materials. The RDD appears as a speculative radiological weapon with the aim of spreading radioactive material across an inhabited area. This study seeks to evaluate how the official decision-making process is influenced by the radiation vertical profile dose, using the hypothetical scenario of a simulated RDD detonation in a densely populated urban area. A simulated plume of strong radiation was generated from the explosion site, contaminating the surrounding area. Several atmospheric conditions impact on the contamination. However, this study focusses on the following main variables considered by HotSpot for a conservative simulation: (a) the atmospheric stability conditions (Pasquill-Gifford - PG classes); (b) the explosive power, and (c) the source-term. Gaussian modeling was used for its speed, and for its capacity to estimate the time-integrated atmospheric concentration of an aerosol at any point in 3D space. The simulation provided information about four main outcomes: (a) contamination plume area; (b) radiological risk dependency on PG classes; (c) total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) with a possible dependence on receptor height; and (d) potentially affected population's size. The findings suggest that a protocolled response from authorities should be implemented in order to effectively follow possible changes in the PG class. Which, in turn, may negatively impact the decision-making process.