Estimating the prevalence of transmitted HIV drug resistance using pooled samples

Nested Group Testing Procedure

We investigated the false-negative, true-negative, false-positive, and true-positive predictive values from a general group testing procedure for a heterogeneous population. We show that its false (true)-negative predictive value of a specimen is larger (smaller), and the false (true)-positive predictive value is smaller (larger) than that from individual testing procedure, where the former is in aversion. Then we propose a nested group testing procedure, and show that it can keep the sterling characteristics and also improve the false-negative predictive values for a specimen, not larger than that from individual testing. These characteristics are studied from both theoretical and numerical points of view. The nested group testing procedure is better than individual testing on both false-positive and false-negative predictive values, while retains the efficiency as a basic characteristic of a group testing procedure. Applications to Dorfman's, Halving and Sterrett procedures are discussed. Results from extensive simulation studies and an application to malaria infection in microscopy-negative Malawian women exemplify the findings.

Future of phylogeny in HIV prevention

The success of the HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 trial has led to revisions in HIV-1 treatment guidelines. Antiretroviral therapy may reduce the risk of HIV-1 transmissions at the population level. The design of successful treatment as prevention interventions will be predicated on a comprehensive understanding of the spatial, temporal, and biological dynamics of heterosexual men who have sex with men and intravenous drug user epidemics. Viral phylogenetics can capture the underlying structure of transmission networks based on the genetic interrelatedness of viral sequences and cluster networks that could not be otherwise identified. This article describes the phylogenetic expansion of the Montreal men who have sex with men epidemic over the last decade. High rates of coclustering of primary infections are associated with 1 infection leading to 13 onward transmissions. Phylogeny substantiates the role of primary and recent stage infection in transmission dynamics, underlying the importance of timely diagnosis and immediate antiretroviral therapy initiation to avert transmission cascades.